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BCH $424.72 -2.79%
LINK $10.05 -5.04%
HYPE $44.50 +1.55%
AAVE $92.67 -6.66%
SUI $1.09 -8.00%
XLM $0.1545 -6.08%
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JPMorgan: Without stronger network activity, Ethereum and altcoins may continue to underperform Bitcoin

JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although the overall cryptocurrency market has recovered after the Iran conflict, Ethereum and other altcoins continue to underperform compared to Bitcoin. The analyst team led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that this trend, which began in 2023, "is unlikely to change unless we see meaningful improvements in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications."The analysts noted that since the conflict triggered a market sell-off, Bitcoin's recovery in spot ETF fund flows and institutional futures positions has outperformed Ethereum. The spot Bitcoin ETF has recovered about two-thirds of the previous outflows, while the spot Ethereum ETF has only recovered about one-third. CME futures positions also indicate that institutional investors are rebuilding their Bitcoin exposure more aggressively than Ethereum.Regarding the upcoming Ethereum upgrades (Glamsterdam and Hegota), analysts questioned whether they would be sufficient to improve ETH's relative performance. Upgrades over the past three years have primarily reduced Layer 2 transaction costs, which has weakened the Ethereum network's fee generation and token burn mechanisms, leading to an accelerated net supply growth and weakened price support. Whether the new upgrades can generate enough new demand and network activity remains to be seen.For altcoins, analysts believe that since 2023, weak liquidity conditions, low market depth and breadth, limited growth in DeFi activity, and recurring hacking and security incidents have collectively eroded market confidence and hindered the deployment of new capital.
18 hours ago

Analysis: Bitcoin is still in a strong expansion range, with multiple on-chain and funding indicators confirming a comprehensive bullish momentum

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

Glassnode: The synchronized strength of buying in both the futures and spot markets has driven Bitcoin up to $82,000, but the market has now reached a state of balance

Glassnode's latest weekly report indicates that Bitcoin slowly climbed from $77,000 to $82,000 last week, with buying pressure continuing to support during the pullback, even as momentum began to cool near local highs. The spot CVD surged, reflecting strong bullish sentiment and a firm belief in price increases. Meanwhile, spot trading volume also increased, indicating that the recent price trend gained more support with heightened investor participation. However, the easing of price momentum suggests that buying and selling pressures are becoming more balanced, implying that the market may be entering a stabilization phase.The situation in the futures market is similar, with a rise in risk appetite. The increase in open interest indicates heightened speculative activity, with investors willing to take on more risk; the perpetual contract CVD surged, indicating sustained bullish momentum. However, the decline in long funding rates suggests a shift towards bearish sentiment, and bullish sentiment may have weakened.In the options market, the demand for downside protection has decreased, while open interest has increased, indicating a shift in market expectations towards neutral or slightly bullish. However, the volatility spread has surged significantly, indicating that the risks reflected in options pricing are much higher than the actual risks, reflecting a notable increase in participant uncertainty.In summary, supported by stronger on-chain activity, healthier profitability, and more stable holder positions, Bitcoin's market structure continues to improve. Although bullish sentiment is strengthening, the slowdown in capital inflows and cautious market sentiment suggest that the market remains sensitive to changes in risk appetite.
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