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Galaxy CEO: Strategy stocks and preferred securities have become key indicators for measuring Bitcoin market risk

According to a report by crypto.news, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent decline is the "collapse of confidence triggered by Strategy." The issue lies not only in the price of Bitcoin itself but also in the growing concerns in the market regarding Strategy's financing model.As the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin globally, Strategy's stock and preferred securities have become key indicators for traders to measure Bitcoin market risk. Previously, the company's Bitcoin flywheel effect had come under pressure, with stock trading prices dipping below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicating that its long-reliant "premium stock issuance to repurchase Bitcoin" model is being challenged. Novogratz bluntly stated that STRC trading is weak, which should have been maintained around $100. Currently, Strategy's annual dividend obligation has risen to about $1.2 billion, and a decline in cash reserves has reduced the dividend coverage period to only about 14 months.Bitcoin is also facing pressure on a macro level. Novogratz summarized the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin," with hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening dollar suppressing demand for risk assets. From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range for Bitcoin has become a critical defense line, and if it breaks down, the downward space could open up to $45,000.Novogratz also admitted that the current situation is complex, with a 50-50 probability of a rebound or a deep correction. Outflows from ETF funds, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the fragile market sentiment. Now, the health of Strategy's balance sheet, the performance of STRC prices, and cash positions have evolved from being company-level issues to becoming confidence signals for the overall Bitcoin market.

Data: BTC reaches a key support level, volatility decreases but defensive positions still dominate

Glassnode stated that Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen back to an important support area after retesting the February lows. Data from the options market shows that although the price is close to key levels, implied volatility has significantly decreased from recent highs, with 1-week implied volatility dropping from about 60% to 35%. The overall volatility curve has shifted downwards, indicating a clear cooling in the market's pricing of future uncertainty.At the same time, the 25Δ skew has also retreated from extreme levels during the sell-off, and the demand for short-term protection has normalized, showing that panic hedging sentiment is weakening. However, structural defensive positions still dominate. Data shows that short-term options still lean towards downside protection, with bearish option transactions accounting for about 28% in the past week, significantly higher than the buying ratio of bullish options (24.1%).Additionally, the 1-month implied volatility has fallen below actual volatility, indicating a situation where "implied volatility underestimates real volatility." There is a significant short gamma concentration around the $62,000 mark (approximately $1.8 billion in size), which could accelerate volatility amplification if prices drop further, while there is a certain long gamma buffer zone around $60,000. Overall, despite the cooling of volatility, the market remains in a defensive position structure.
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