hayes

Arthur Hayes published a new long article titled "Safety First," with the core argument that the claims of "safety first" by Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, which lead to a slowdown in AGI development, are not out of concern for human welfare but rather due to economic realities. The market does not want AI; it wants AI at "Chinese prices," meaning it needs intelligence that is 100 times cheaper than what is currently available. Hayes points out that "safety first" essentially destroys the demand for computing power. If the spending on training new models decreases and laboratories shift towards efficiency optimization, customers will spend less on computing power. The three major AI laboratories do not generate any profits, and their demand for computing power supports over $10 trillion in investment-grade debt and hundreds of billions in low-quality debt, which rely on profitable tech companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft for off-balance-sheet endorsements. The real backstop is the holders of insurance policies in the United States.Hayes cites an analysis by Nick Nameth that reveals a "self-insurance scam": private equity giants (such as Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, etc.) acquire insurance companies, stuffing AI data center debt and SaaS private credit impacted by AI into insurance assets, and then provide false endorsements with minimal capital through affiliated self-insurance reinsurance companies. Nameth estimates that the total amount of these false reinsurance assets reaches $1.54 trillion. Once the AI data center debt is downgraded by rating agencies due to insufficient demand for computing power, insurance companies will be forced to add capital, while the affiliated reinsurance companies will be unable to pay, leading to insolvency for the insurance companies. In most states in the U.S., the insurance protection limit is only $250,000 to $300,000, and existing insurance companies only pay into the protection fund afterward, which encourages all parties involved to maximize risk-taking. When AIG was bailed out in 2008, TARP funds ultimately flowed to Goldman Sachs and led to record bonuses, while the general public only received foreclosure notices; Hayes believes this scenario will repeat itself.For cryptocurrency investors, the conclusion is a win-win situation. If the U.S. government chooses to become the "last buyer of computing power," it will print money in the name of national security to fund unproductive economic goods, driving up financial speculation and Bitcoin prices; if the government chooses to bail out insolvent insurance companies, it will also need to print money to cover bad AI debts, increasing the money supply and pushing up Bitcoin. Hayes specifically points out that the Federal Reserve voted unanimously last week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and RMP bond purchases have stopped since August 14, but commercial banks have taken over to create over $100 billion in currency, and the interest rate hike allows banks to earn an additional $7.5 billion in excess reserve interest each year. This money will be used to expand loans and market speculation, and the net effect remains stimulative. The fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, which saw a slight increase at the end of August, are about to end, the supply of dollars will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and some selected altcoins will rise. Hayes also described this situation as "incredibly wonderful," stating that the government will not allow the free market to stop building AI data centers, there will be an oversupply of spot computing power, the usage of AI agents will increase, and the surge in money printing will drive investors to chase cryptocurrency assets.

Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform that the FLOP token on the FLOP Labs testnet will be exchanged for the mainnet FLOP token at a pending ratio, and it will support trading with real funds through its HTLC protocol.Incentives for miners, validators, or agents participating in the FLOP Labs testnet will increase.

Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform that, aside from AI safety risks, if companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX no longer act as buyers of computing power, the U.S. government may need to take on that role; another scenario is that if the demand for computing power disappears, leading to defaults on related AI debts, the Federal Reserve may need to "print money" to rescue the insurance institutions holding those debts. Hayes stated that regardless of which option is chosen, it will ultimately need to be resolved through monetary expansion, jokingly referring to this situation as "Yachtzee."

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, Arthur Hayes has established a position worth over 2.247 million dollars in UNI, with an average purchase price of 6.94 dollars. Three hours ago, Arthur Hayes bought an additional 39,800 UNI through Flowdesk, spending approximately 273,000 USDC; he currently holds 323,900 UNI, with an unrealized loss of 286,000 dollars.

Flop Labs CEO Arthur Hayes announced that the FLOP Network v0.5.0 yellow paper draft has been released, proposing an AI inference measurement and settlement network based on Substrate/FRAME, utilizing the BABE block production and AlephBFT finality mechanism.The project's official roadmap indicates that the FLOP testnet is planned to launch in Q4 2026, with token airdrops through participation in testing, and the mainnet target is set for Q1 2027; currently, the yellow paper remains a draft, and several parameters and mechanisms have yet to be finalized.

Arthur Hayes released a new project FLOP white paper on social media. FLOP is a proof of useful inference (PoUI) blockchain and native currency aimed at the agent economy, where AI agents can use FLOP to pay miners for inference fees. The network adopts an architecture that combines PoUI with account-based chains, where agents submit session requests to the memory pool containing model weight hashes, maximum latency, computational load, confidentiality flags, and fees. Miners complete the inference and return proofs, which validators incorporate into blocks to complete settlements.The initial supply of FLOP is approximately 2.48346 billion tokens, all allocated for airdrops, with no VC pre-mining or auctions. The first phase of reward distribution allocates 75% to miners, 10% to validators, 10% to agents, and 5% to regular stakers. The average block time for the network is 1 second, with a roadmap goal of sub-second block times. The initial block reward is 96 FLOP, halving every 730 days, for a total of five halvings, after which it will permanently remain at 3 FLOP.The maximum number of validators is capped at 1,000, with approximately 50 rotating monthly based on verified workload and online rates. Miners and validators must stake FLOP, and malicious behavior may face penalties of up to full forfeiture and bans. Governance is conducted through FLOP improvement proposals, requiring a two-thirds approval from active validators in most cases.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, Arthur Hayes (0x6cd...47e21) received 39,000 UNI from FalconX in the past hour, worth $282,000, increasing his UNI holdings to 284,100, with a total value of $2,007,000 and an average withdrawal price of $7.06.Arthur Hayes has made a large transaction of UNI again after about 9 months, and UNI has now become his third largest on-chain asset.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, Arthur Hayes (0x6cd...e21) purchased 244,000 UNI through Flowdesk OTC at a price of $7.06.

According to Cointelegraph, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that Bitcoin is expected to reach $1 million before 2030, citing factors such as the bursting of the AI bubble, massive money printing, and the potential implementation of yield curve control by the United States. He believes that $58,000 is likely the bottom for this round, and Bitcoin will experience a volatile upward trend.However, Hayes indicated that his current preference is Ethereum, believing it offers a better risk-reward ratio and is likely to achieve a rapid increase of 3 to 5 times, as Ethereum is the foundational layer of DeFi and is the only major cryptocurrency that has not yet broken through its historical high from 2021. He is more cautious about Hyperliquid, believing that its expectations are already fully reflected in the price, and that funds are better suited for deployment in other altcoin areas.Hayes also mentioned that Trump's influence on cryptocurrency prices is minimal, and that the real determinants of price are monetary authorities like the Federal Reserve. Regarding BitMEX's closure on September 23, he said, "I feel very good," believing that this is a voluntary shutdown according to their own wishes, rather than due to a hacking incident, and stated that operating an exchange without scale advantages is no longer profitable.

Arthur Hayes-led AI agency project Flop Labs announced that it is building a GPU computing power exchange, allowing the buying and selling of computing power resources. Flop Labs pointed out that NVIDIA's quarterly data center computing power sales reached $89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 117%, but GPU pricing is still not standardized, and users need to contact suppliers directly for quotes.On Flop, AI agents purchase computing power from miners using FLOP tokens, and validators re-execute some of the completed computational work to verify the pricing basis used in the transactions.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes tweeted that the AI Agent chat service Technocore.chat is now online. This service is open-sourced by flop-labs (Apache-2.0) and is positioned as a chat and note server for AI Agents, requiring no login, client, or JavaScript. It allows reading and writing room messages, storing notes, and discovering public rooms using only standard HTTP GET/POST. Posts can also be made via DID and Ed25519 signatures.Technocore.chat is operated by Flop Labs (a project under Arthur Hayes).

According to Cointelegraph, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) recently expressed a bullish view on Ethereum, pointing out that ETH had previously been heavily sold off by the market and was almost "forgotten," but its ratio against Bitcoin has recently shown a significant rebound, which he believes is a signal of the market's reawakening.

Arthur Hayes stated that investors should be prepared to buy Bitcoin and expect it to perform well in the coming years. He believes that if the U.S. continues to expand its money supply, the price of Bitcoin could eventually rise to $250,000. Bitcoin has risen about 20% since mid-August, increasing its total market capitalization by $300 billion in just a few hours.Scott Bessent had previously committed to supporting the bond market, and this week the Treasury is reported to potentially tap nearly $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to fund bond purchases. Xapo Bank investment manager Gadi Chait noted that Bitcoin rose about 23% last week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023; during the same period, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were approximately $1.9 billion, with record short liquidations further driving the upward trend.

Arthur Hayes urges users to quickly create unique DID keys for their respective agents on Technocore.chat, stating that more collaborative methods for agents will be announced next week to obtain additional $FLOP airdrop quotas.The goal is to directly link "meaningful participation" in the flop_labs ecosystem with subsequent token incentives.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that Bitcoin has been hovering around $80,000 for most of this week, which may cause Strategy's Bitcoin strategy to lose its operational basis. Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoins and needs to pay approximately $1.5 billion in dividends for STRK and STRC each year.The enterprise value mNAV of digital asset treasury company Strategy is approximately 1.01 times, with the underlying mNAV and diluted mNAV being approximately 0.73 times and 0.74 times, respectively, as of August 27, which is close to the book value of its held Bitcoins. Arthur Hayes pointed out that Michael Saylor can choose to issue new shares, directly sell Bitcoins, or cut preferred stock dividends. The dividend yield for STRK is 8%, while the dividend yield for STRC is between 10% and 11.5%.

Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform that the FLOP tokenomics infographic for his AI/crypto project Flop Labs will be released this week. Hayes stated that there will be an AMA on X Spaces and YouTube next week to answer questions about the tokenomics and gather feedback to improve the design.

Arthur Hayes updated on the X platform stating: The FLOP airdrop eligibility will depend on users' testnet activities. The testnet token faucet will be launched on Technocore.chat, and users will need to access it through the DID keys provided by the AI agent.Previously, Hayes revealed that the FLOP is planned for a large-scale airdrop in the fourth quarter of 2026, with an expected 20% of the total token supply to be airdropped to testnet participants, distributed over 10 years------this may be adjusted later, and the purpose of announcing this figure is to collect user feedback. The FLOP token is expected to become one of the top two tokens in the cryptocurrency market.

On August 25, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his over-the-counter brokerage has begun inquiring about the demand for dollar lending. Although current interest rates remain low, he believes this may indicate that basis trading is returning, and mentioned that Ethena-related token ENA may benefit from this.