forecast

On November 12, the Gate event market's "Cryptocurrency" sector completed a product update, adjusting the original Index market to a Spot market, and launching a new short-term price prediction based on Chainlink's spot price. The first phase supports 5-minute and 15-minute prediction events for BTC and ETH, using the spot price as the basis for determining price movements, providing users with more intuitive and diverse short-cycle prediction options.At the same time, multiple activities in the Gate event market are ongoing. The total prize pool for the 13th points activity has reached 85,704 USDT, with the points prize pool at 13,023 USDT and the lucky prize pool at 72,680 USDT. The first place on the leaderboard is expected to receive 4,883 USDT. With four U.S. stock companies' earnings reports set to be released early tomorrow morning, the earnings report season prediction challenge offers a reward of 90,000 USDT, with the top prize being 5,000 USDT.In addition, several NBA games are taking place today, with the NBA trading competition setting a prize pool of 65,000 USDT, where the top prize can reach 10,000 USDT. The total prize pools for various activities exceed 240,000 USDT, covering different prediction scenarios such as cryptocurrencies, corporate earnings reports, and sports events.

The predicted market report for Q3 2026 shows that the nominal trading volume in the predicted market is expected to reach $194.1 billion, a 75% increase from Q2. Regulated exchanges in the United States account for 89% of the nominal trading volume, up from 69% in Q2; cross-market trading accounts for 44% of the nominal trading volume in the U.S., surpassing the 39% of individual sports events.American Spend data shows that the 11 states in the U.S. where sports betting has not yet been legalized hold about one-third of the adult population in the U.S., and these states contributed 55% of Kalshi's bank card deposits in September 2026. Users aged 18 to 24 account for 30% of Kalshi's bank card deposits. Kalshi and Polymarket US together account for 11% of the relevant betting application bank card deposits, up from 3% in Q1. Blask data shows that Kalshi's share of search demand in the U.S. predicted market has increased from 23% to 34%.

According to a report by The Information, Microsoft has reduced its capital expenditures for the third quarter by about $5 billion due to delays in the third-party data center it plans to lease. Sources say that the data center project by Iren located in Childress, Texas, has encountered delays, leading Microsoft to postpone some expenditures. Microsoft had previously announced plans to invest $9.7 billion over five years to lease servers equipped with NVIDIA GPUs from Iren.Power supply and grid access have also become bottlenecks for computing power delivery. Last month, Microsoft withdrew from a plan to lease a data center project in the UK from Nscale due to delays in grid access. As self-built data centers struggle to meet demand in a timely manner, Microsoft is simultaneously leasing computing power from multiple cloud service providers.Meanwhile, AI server supplier Supermicro continues to raise its performance expectations. The company's revenue for the first fiscal quarter reached $19.95 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $16.39 billion, and it expects revenue for the second fiscal quarter to be between $19.5 billion and $21.5 billion. The revenue forecast for fiscal year 2027 has also been raised from $65 billion to $72 billion to $72 billion to $82 billion. Bernstein pointed out that assessing AI computing power demand cannot simply rely on contract amounts or megawatt scale; it also needs to consider contract cancelability, duration, and actual deployment time; some projects may be delivered in phases, and chip procurement agreements may correspond to the same batch of computing power as data center leasing contracts.

Despite the panic in the market caused by stricter regulations on data centers after the Democratic Party gained control of Congress, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for U.S. data center construction spending, increasing the 2026 expectation from $67 billion to $80 billion, and from $87 billion in 2027 to $100 billion, while also predicting for the first time that it will reach $125 billion in 2028.Goldman Sachs pointed out that there are currently about 86 GW of data center projects under construction in the U.S., with approximately $900 billion in high-confidence projects awaiting construction, indicating that the overall construction cycle remains resilient. The demand and backlog orders from hyperscale cloud service providers such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have not shown significant cooling, with H100 computing power rental prices rising 26% year-on-year and GB200 rental prices increasing by 50% since the beginning of the year.In response to the data center moratorium proposed by Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, Goldman Sachs believes that its impact is more about delaying project delivery rather than directly canceling construction plans, but it may lead to increased financing costs, reduced tax incentives, and some clients canceling contracts. Goldman Sachs also warned that the overall growth prospects of the industry need to be distinguished from the survival capabilities of individual developers, as highly leveraged data center developers may face severe financial pressure due to project delays and rising financing costs, with some companies potentially unable to last until their projects go into production.

Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Dan Struyven published the "Precious Metals Analyst Report: Long-term Bullish on Gold, But Not Now" on November 5, lowering their forecast for the gold price at the end of 2026 from $4,650 per ounce to $4,150, and the target price for the end of 2027 from $5,400 to $4,800.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) expects full-year net sales to be between 72 billion and 82 billion USD, up from the previous expectation of 65 billion to 72 billion USD.

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the end of this year and 2027 due to rising risks in crude oil supply. Analysts expect Brent crude oil prices to reach $105 per barrel in December, up from the previous forecast of $90. The market is factoring in the risks of escalating situations following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.

Rivian (RIVN.O) rose 7.3% in pre-market trading, with third-quarter revenue exceeding expectations, and the fiscal year 2026 vehicle delivery forecast raised.

Coinbase stated on platform X that it predicts the annualized revenue for Q3 will exceed 200 million dollars, with the number of daily traders increasing by over 60% month-over-month.Coinbase's market share of cryptocurrency trading volume has increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, nearly doubling compared to the same period last year; the average holding of USDC in its products has reached a record high for the 14th consecutive quarter, and the subscription volume for CB1 has reached a record high for the 5th consecutive quarter.

Bitwise released the report "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for Bitcoin in 2027," predicting the return rate, volatility, and correlation with stocks for Bitcoin over the next 10 years.Bitwise stated that under the baseline scenario, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $1.6 million by 2036.

According to Chao Xiang Research, Bernstein's report on October 26, 2026, lowered COIN's revenue forecast for 2026 by 32%. HOOD's third-quarter revenue is expected to be $1.5 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13%; CRCL's third-quarter revenue is expected to be $770 million, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10%; FIGR's third-quarter loan volume reached $5.1 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 20%.Bernstein pointed out that the native cryptocurrency spot trading volume is weak, and the valuations of the four digital asset platforms have shifted towards new products such as prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenization, and lending platforms. All four maintain an outperform rating, with target prices of $160 for HOOD, $250 for COIN, $145 for CRCL, and $70 for FIGR. The report also predicts that the revenue share of new products for HOOD will increase from 3% in 2025 to 25% in 2028, while COIN will rise from 2% to 19%, and the speed of new product realization will determine valuation differentiation.

On October 27, WEEX Exchange announced that the WEEX "U.S. Stock Earnings Prophet" event is ongoing, with a countdown of 10 days. Two new companies, Apple (AAPL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), have been added to the financial predictions, along with SanDisk (SNDK), Google (GOOGL), and Intel (INTC), making a total of 5 companies available for participation. The prize pools are 1,000 USDT, 1,000 USDT, 2,000 USDT, 1,000 USDT, and 1,000 USDT, with each prediction prize pool being independent.Users can earn points through contract trading, inviting friends, and other tasks. New users receive points upon registration. By using points to choose "Bullish" or "Bearish," they can participate in predicting the market's rise or fall after the release of U.S. stock earnings. Regardless of the prediction outcome—win, lose, or draw—participants can share in the USDT prize pool. Additionally, participating in predictions can accumulate points, and the top 20 users in points ranking can receive VIP5 to VIP7 benefits for 30 days.

Meta Platforms expects capital expenditures to be between $135 billion and $145 billion in 2026, with the lower end of the range raised by $5 billion.

Netflix's U.S. stock fell 6.1% in pre-market trading after its fourth-quarter profit forecast fell short of expectations, and the company lowered its full-year advertising revenue forecast.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has first included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market expectations, forecasting an annualized return of about 10% for Bitcoin over the next decade, which is expected to outperform stocks, bonds, and gold. However, this prediction also assumes that Bitcoin's annualized volatility could reach as high as 55%, more than three times that of U.S. large-cap stocks.J.P. Morgan believes that the gradual improvement of the regulatory framework, along with the continuous enhancement of market liquidity and price discovery mechanisms, may further promote Bitcoin's recognition in traditional financial markets. Looking ahead to the next decade, technological innovations in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, healthcare, and space, as well as a global capital expenditure growth of approximately $15 trillion, are also expected to drive economic growth and asset returns. Analysts point out that the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets is unstable, making it currently unsuitable as a diversification asset in balanced investment portfolios; therefore, the institution has not yet included it in its main investment portfolio model. If Bitcoin's volatility continues to decline in the future and its correlation with other assets stabilizes, its portfolio allocation value is expected to increase.

Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML has raised its full-year sales forecast for the third consecutive quarter, expecting sales in 2026 to be between 44 billion and 45 billion euros. Net sales in the third quarter rose to 11.66 billion euros.ASML plans to increase the production capacity of its low numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment by 30% next year and stated that it will not be able to fully meet market demand in 2027 and 2028.

According to The Block, Chicago Mercantile Exchange CEO Terrence Duffy stated that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is facing an issue of "overreach" in its attempt to expand regulatory authority over prediction markets, and the related regulatory disputes may ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.Duffy mentioned during the DC Fintech Week event on Tuesday that the struggle for regulatory authority over prediction markets could evolve into a legal battle between state governments, tribal governments, and the federal government, stating, "This will go to the Supreme Court, and I believe state governments and tribal governments will have the advantage."

The IMF World Economic Outlook report predicts that the global real GDP growth rate will be 3.1% in 2026, up from the July forecast of 3%, as investments in artificial intelligence have alleviated the energy price shocks in major economies.The forecast for the global economic growth rate in 2027 is 3.4%, unchanged from the July forecast.

Goldman Sachs will adjust its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike from October to December.

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest currently holds a direct position in Kalshi through three ETFs: ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF. Ark Invest expects that the annual trading volume in the mid-term forecast market will reach between $1 trillion and $5 trillion.Ark Invest stated that although Kalshi is still a private company, it hopes to allow its investors to participate early.