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BTC $79,102.35 -2.63%
ETH $2,223.21 -3.03%
BNB $672.57 -0.89%
XRP $1.43 -3.95%
SOL $89.28 -3.31%
TRX $0.3519 -0.43%
DOGE $0.1136 -1.75%
ADA $0.2612 -3.73%
BCH $426.33 -2.29%
LINK $10.07 -4.23%
HYPE $44.17 -0.33%
AAVE $92.89 -5.84%
SUI $1.09 -7.80%
XLM $0.1544 -5.18%
ZEC $515.52 -7.72%

flows

Analysis: Bitcoin is oscillating between favorable regulations and rising yields, with continuous outflows from ETFs putting pressure on prices

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net positive inflows for seven consecutive weeks, with IBIT attracting $269.3 million in a single day yesterday. The House fundraising committee is holding a closed-door meeting on cryptocurrency tax reform today, in sync with the Senate markup

According to BBX data, institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs maintained strong momentum yesterday. Today, both houses of Congress are advancing cryptocurrency legislation simultaneously for the first time, with the core dynamics as follows:The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of approximately $358.1 million yesterday (May 13), with BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: $BLK) subsidiary iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: $IBIT) seeing a single-day net inflow of $269.3 million, the strongest single-day data in recent weeks; the overall U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has recorded net positive inflows for seven consecutive weeks, further reinforcing the structural signal of institutional capital returning. Bitcoin closed above $80,000 yesterday, with a year-to-date increase of about 14%, and market sentiment remains relatively optimistic on the eve of the CLARITY Act markup.The House Ways & Means Committee held a closed-door meeting today (May 14) on cryptocurrency tax reform in sync with the Senate Banking Committee's CLARITY Act markup, covering topics such as the treatment of capital gains tax on crypto assets, tax reporting responsibilities for DeFi protocols, and the tax classification of Bitcoin mining and staking income; this marks the first time in 2026 that both houses of Congress are advancing cryptocurrency regulatory legislation on the same day, indicating that cryptocurrency regulatory legislation has expanded from a single market structure issue to a complete legislative ecosystem of "regulatory framework + tax system."

Analysis: Bitcoin surged and then fell below $80,000, with ETF capital outflows and geopolitical risks combining to suppress market sentiment

Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark this week, following a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, as the market's rebound momentum from February's lows showed signs of cooling. The U.S. April non-farm payroll data added 115,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Although the overall data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty; instead, it reinforced expectations that "energy-driven inflation limits the space for interest rate cuts."In terms of capital flow, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $277 million on Thursday, ending a previous cumulative inflow of $1.69 billion; the Ethereum ETF also recorded a net outflow of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling of institutional risk appetite. On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the U.S. have escalated again, prompting the market to reprice the risks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in oil prices, which partially offset the support that previous risk assets received from the decline in oil prices.The derivatives market shows a more long-term hawkish outlook, with interest rate futures pricing in over a 50% probability of rate hikes beyond 2027, suggesting that the easing cycle may be delayed until 2028. On-chain data indicates that the current rise in Bitcoin is primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining relatively low, and funding rates maintaining a moderate level, resulting in a weak market momentum structure. Analysts believe that if retail funds do not return, BTC may still face the risk of testing the support range of $75,000 to $78,000.

CoinShares: Crypto ETPs have seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, with a total inflow of over $4 billion in five weeks

According to The Block, CoinShares released a report showing that last week, global crypto asset ETPs recorded a net inflow of $117.8 million, achieving a fifth consecutive week of net inflows, with a cumulative inflow of over $4 billion in five weeks and a total management scale of approximately $155 billion. However, the funding structure has shown significant differentiation.The report pointed out that from Monday to Thursday, there was a total net outflow of $619 million, but on Friday, a large inflow of $737 million was recorded in a single day, reversing the week to a net inflow, reflecting a significant rebound in market risk appetite before the weekend. From a regional perspective, net inflows in the U.S. market dropped to $47.5 million, a significant slowdown compared to the previous week's $1.1 billion; Germany and Canada recorded inflows of $43.8 million and $16 million, respectively, with European funds performing relatively steadily.In terms of assets, Bitcoin-related products led the way with a weekly inflow of $192.1 million, of which the U.S. spot ETF contributed approximately $162.8 million; Ethereum products, on the other hand, saw a net outflow of $81.6 million. Analysts believe that the number of participating assets has decreased from 9 to 4, indicating that market sentiment weakened significantly in the middle of the week before showing signs of recovery.

Analysis: Bitcoin faces key resistance levels, with continuous outflows from ETFs and increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve causing the market to remain cautious

Bitcoin fluctuated around $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market focus quickly shifted to internal policy divisions and macro uncertainties. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking breakthrough momentum in the short term.Kraken's chief economist Thomas Perfumo stated that the current market is more concerned about the policy uncertainties brought about by the "division" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself, especially against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure alongside expectations of Kevin Warsh potentially taking over, leading to a lack of clear policy transition. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin is still "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support located between $65,000 and $70,000.Although selling pressure has eased, demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward breakthrough. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has rarely shown severe divisions, which the market interprets as an increase in uncertainty regarding the inflation path. Institutions such as Bitget Wallet and 21Shares pointed out that expectations of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer term" are suppressing the performance of risk assets, leading the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.In terms of capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with approximately $138 million flowing out on April 29 alone; Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million during the same period. Although some individual products still have inflows, the overall trend indicates that institutional demand is cooling.Meanwhile, while CME positions and ETF assets under management have stabilized, there has not yet been a strong signal of capital returning. The derivatives market shows that short positions in perpetual contracts have reached historical highs; if sentiment improves, it may trigger a short squeeze, but the current market remains characterized by low volatility and low confidence. Overall, Bitcoin is caught between an improving support structure and weak demand, with continuous ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macro risks collectively suppressing its breakthrough of key resistance levels.
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