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BCH $417.46 -1.75%
LINK $9.74 -3.05%
HYPE $41.89 -4.58%
AAVE $90.33 -2.57%
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XLM $0.1516 -1.69%
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era

Next week's macro outlook: The last meeting minutes of the "Powell era" are coming, and Nvidia will release its earnings report on Wednesday

According to Jinshi reports, the US and Israel are expected to resume strikes against Iran as early as next week. Amidst the soaring expectations of interest rate hikes in the bond market, the last meeting minutes of the "Powell era" are coming. Here are the key points that the market will focus on next week (all in Beijing time):Tuesday 9:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting;Tuesday 20:00, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak at the European Central Bank research conference;Tuesday 20:15, the weekly change in ADP employment numbers for the week ending May 2 in the United States;Wednesday 7:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak;Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;Thursday 20:00, European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane will speak at the European Central Bank research conference.The AI boom and consumer spending under inflationary pressure are the two main themes currently influencing the direction of US stocks. Next week, semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) and a number of retail companies such as Walmart (WMT) will successively disclose their earnings reports. Nvidia will release its earnings report after the US market closes on Wednesday, and Walmart will release its earnings report before the US market opens on Thursday.

Gray area: The Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a long time, which is bearish for Bitcoin but bullish for Circle and RWA

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market.He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027.Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency depreciation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures.In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%.Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis points increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.
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