alys

According to Cointelegraph, multiple analysts have pointed out that Ethereum faces downside risks, with ETH potentially dropping another 20% to the $1,700 range. The increase in holdings on trading platforms and the decline in ETF demand are the main sources of pressure.CryptoQuant analyst BorisD noted that from May 5 to May 9, the ETH reserves on Binance surged from 3.36 million to 3.84 million, while the price dropped 7% from $2,390 to $2,260 during the same period. He stated, "This indicates that liquidity is being absorbed and distributed simultaneously. The overall structure still points to dominant downside risks."Another analyst, PelinayPA, shares the same view, believing that any short-term rebound will "be accompanied by high volatility, followed by a continuation of a broader downward trend," and added, "A large amount of ETH continues to flow into trading platforms, creating significant resistance to price increases." The net inflow of ETH to trading platforms surged to 585,000, marking the largest single-day inflow since December 2025—at that time, the ETH price was around $3,000, which subsequently dropped to $1,750 in February this year, a decline of 42%. Such large-scale inflows typically indicate that large holders are offloading.Meanwhile, the demand for spot Ethereum ETFs continues to weaken, recording net outflows for four consecutive days, with a total outflow amounting to $190 million. From a technical perspective, the ETH daily chart shows that the ascending wedge pattern has broken below the support level of $2,280. If the daily closing price confirms a break below, the target will point to the wedge measurement target of $1,725, a 22% drop from the current price, aligning with the macro low on February 6 of this year.Analyst ShangoTrades stated that this breakdown "is starting to become concerning." From a longer-term perspective, analyst CryptoBullGod pointed out that the measurement target for the ETH weekly bear flag pattern is $1,280.

According to Cointelegraph, after the U.S. stock market opened, Bitcoin quickly fell, briefly dropping below the $79,000 mark, with a daily decline of about 3%, reaching a low not seen since May. The market generally believes that this round of correction is closely related to the sell-off of risk assets triggered by the surge in U.S. Treasury yields. Data shows that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose above 4.55%, reaching a nearly one-year high, raising concerns in the market about tightening liquidity and the reassessment of risk assets.Analysts pointed out that this level had previously triggered adjustments in U.S. stocks and policy expectations last year, and it has now become a key pressure signal again. Trading firm The Kobeissi Letter stated that the "crisis-like rise" in the U.S. Treasury market is intensifying, with long-term high interest rate expectations heating up. The market has begun to factor in the possibility of future rate hikes, leading to a rapid cooling of the previous "euphoric sentiment" in risk assets.From a technical perspective, analysts believe that after multiple rejections of resistance above $82,000, the support structure for Bitcoin is weakening, and it may retest the $75,000--$77,000 range in the short term, as the market enters a phase of range-bound fluctuations and directional choices.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart stated on the X platform that the 2x leveraged Cerebras Systems ETF (ticker: CBRG) has officially begun trading, while its underlying asset CBRS only started trading the previous afternoon, meaning that the launch of the leveraged ETF was completed just hours apart, setting a record for the rapid product launch pace.This "fast-follow" ETF issuance model is accelerating, and in the future, leveraged ETFs around non-public or high-demand assets such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may also emerge with similar rapid replication issuance paths, reflecting a significant increase in the productization speed of the ETF market for new asset exposures.

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee recently advanced the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, marking a step forward in the regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto market. Research institution HashKey Group pointed out that if the bill is enacted, it will significantly enhance compliance certainty for institutional investors participating in the crypto market and strengthen the core position of the U.S. dollar stablecoin in the global digital financial system.Analysts believe that a clearer U.S. regulatory framework will encourage banks, asset management institutions, and sovereign funds to more widely adopt compliant stablecoins for cross-border payments, settlements, and fund management, especially with more evident demand in the Asian market. However, at the same time, the U.S. restrictions on "yield-bearing stablecoins" may create structural spillover effects. HashKey researcher Tim Sun stated that if the U.S. strictly limits the stablecoin yield mechanisms, capital may flow to the Asian market or indirectly seek higher yields through "wrapped products."The report noted that the Asian market (such as Hong Kong and Singapore) features active cross-border trade, frequent capital flows, and local currencies that are more susceptible to external shocks. In an environment of high U.S. dollar financing costs, U.S. dollar stablecoins will become an important liquidity tool. However, the analysis also emphasized that this competition is not a zero-sum game. As the CLARITY Act progresses, the global competitive focus may shift from "trading platforms and token issuance" to "stablecoin liquidity channels and control over financial infrastructure," meaning who can more efficiently connect U.S. dollar liquidity, regional assets, and compliant financial channels.

According to BIT analysis, if Bitcoin could keep up with the Nasdaq's rise, the current price should be close to $140,000. The relative underperformance of Bitcoin may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin had generally followed the fluctuations of the Nasdaq, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen back to 3%, which is 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market also began to gradually retract some pricing for rate cuts in 2026. This is precisely the source of the pressure on Bitcoin; its upward logic relies on expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and once the market starts to retract pricing for rate cuts, performance often comes under pressure. Subsequently, this logic continued to influence Bitcoin's trend.Stocks, on the other hand, are completely different. As long as the market still views inflation as mild and temporary, a rise in inflation can actually be beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can boost nominal corporate income, reduce real debt burdens, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a hedge against purchasing power. The latest U.S. inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, although the agency's model had previously indicated that price pressures might rise again. The current key question is whether this round of inflation expectation repricing will weaken the ongoing positive fundamentals for Bitcoin; and how investors should adjust their positions in this context.

According to Jinshi reports, the market has currently priced in a probability of over 30% for interest rate hikes before December. After the unexpectedly strong PPI data in the U.S. for April, the market believes it will be almost more difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify any rate cuts this year.The April PPI rose by 1.4%, significantly higher than the general expectation of 0.5% from economists, indicating that inflationary pressures are stronger than expected and reinforcing the trend of the market repricing the interest rate path.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that since March of this year, the Bitcoin spot ETF $IBIT has significantly outperformed the gold ETF $GLD, leading by 33 percentage points.In terms of capital, $IBIT saw a net inflow of $4.2 billion during this period, while $GLD experienced a net outflow of $9 billion, resulting in a total capital flow difference of up to $13 billion between the two.

According to The Block, the Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) under the crypto asset management company 21Shares was officially listed on Tuesday, with a trading volume of $1.8 million on its first day. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commented that it was "very robust, far better than the typical ETF first-day performance."It is reported that THYP is the first ETF product that tracks the Hyperliquid (HYPE) spot, allowing investors to gain exposure to HYPE tokens without directly holding the tokens. 21Shares stated that it plans to stake its held HYPE assets in the future. Additionally, Bitwise and Grayscale are also applying for HYPE-related ETF products.

According to Cointelegraph, analyst ArabxChain stated that since the beginning of May, more than 3 million ETH have been withdrawn from Binance, which may reduce the pressure of spot selling.

According to Sina Finance, 21Shares analyst Matt Mena stated that Bitcoin did not decline due to inflation data, indicating that the market has already priced in the overheating inflation data and remains above the important support level of $80,000.Mena believes that as macro resistance is gradually cleared, Bitcoin is expected to retest the resistance level of $82,000 and further advance towards $85,000. The upcoming Senate vote on the CLARITY Act may also become an important catalyst, pushing the price to $90,000.

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market has temporarily stalled before the release of the U.S. April CPI data. Bitcoin has recently been oscillating in the range of $80,000 to $82,000, failing to effectively break through since last Wednesday.The market believes that although capital flows still indicate a potential for a subsequent breakthrough, inflation and macro risks are suppressing risk appetite. The U.S. will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. FactSet data shows that the market expects the April CPI to rise year-on-year to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If the forecast is realized, it will mark the largest increase since January 2024 and is significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. The core CPI is expected to rise year-on-year to 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that if the inflation data exceeds expectations against the backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's statement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is "extremely fragile," it may further trigger market risk aversion, dragging down the performance of risk assets.Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM, stated that the current market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical issues, inflation risks, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran, and key U.S. economic data may lead to increased volatility in commodities, exchange rates, and global stock markets.In addition to macro factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today but has failed to break through this level multiple times since February of this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance level around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The U.S. spot XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.8 million on Monday, reaching a new high since January 5; Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $16.9 million.

Analyst Murphy has released a bearish signal analysis for Bitcoin at a small scale. Currently, the CVD of Binance perpetual contracts has rapidly declined from the April high and has fallen below the 90-day median. This indicates that market bulls are unwilling to continue chasing higher prices, and bears are starting to actively sell short. The spot CVD has also begun to "peak and turn down." Historically, when this indicator turns, prices often follow with a correction, similar to November 2024 and April 2025. However, the key difference in the current market compared to the past is that the BTC CVD indicator on Coinbase remains steadily above the 90-day median line.During the same period, the 30-day net purchases of Bitcoin spot ETFs have not shown a significant decrease, and funds in the U.S. market are still supporting it. Analysts state that shorting in the short term remains a high-risk behavior, and bears still need to wait for bearish sentiment to dominate on Binance, as well as for U.S. investors' spot buying to gradually withdraw.

According to Jinshi reports, Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research, expects the S&P 500 index to rise above 8,000 points.

According to The Block, affected by Iran's rejection of the U.S. peace framework and the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil briefly surpassed $104 on Monday, while Bitcoin remained fluctuating above $81,000. Analysts believe that the current crypto market is more driven by geopolitical factors rather than fundamental factors. QCP Capital describes the current market as "standing at a crossroads," viewing $84,000 as the next key resistance level for Bitcoin.Previously, the inflow of ETF funds, expectations of increased holdings by listed companies, and optimistic sentiment around the U.S. Clarity Act stablecoin bill drove BTC up to the $80,000 range, but recently there has been some profit-taking. Laser Digital stated that the market had previously bet that Strategy would make large-scale Bitcoin purchases, but after the expectations fell through, it triggered profit-taking sell-offs. Additionally, some enterprise-level BTC holders have slowed down or paused their accumulation, which has intensified market pressure.Meanwhile, Ethereum became the main target of selling last week. Reports indicate that a whale holding approximately $1 billion in both BTC and ETH has been continuously selling ETH, leading to a noticeable weakening of ETH relative to BTC. Although this address continued to transfer ETH to exchanges over the weekend, it has not triggered further sell-offs.On the macro level, U.S. non-farm payroll data for April was stronger than expected, alleviating short-term stagflation concerns for the Federal Reserve; the market is also focused on the upcoming CPI and PPI data to be released this week, as well as the progress of meetings between Trump and Chinese leaders in Beijing. CoinShares data shows that net inflows into digital asset investment products reached $857.9 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of net inflows.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revealed in a post on X platform that the prediction market ETF has not been launched as originally planned, possibly due to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deciding to further review the related products. Currently, the delay "is not a fatal issue," but rather seems like the regulatory agency wants to conduct additional checks on the disclosure documents.He pointed out that these products are groundbreaking, and once approved for listing, they will set an important regulatory precedent for prediction market ETFs. Therefore, it is understandable that the SEC wants to spend more time reviewing, and the market is still waiting for further developments.