Delphi Digital's latest show: Has the imitation season arrived?

Original Title: The Hivemind - Alt Season is Already Here

Original Authors: Kevin Kelly, Jose Maria Macedo, Yan Liberman, Ceteris, Jason Pagoulatos

Original Compilation: Rhythm BlockBeats

Editor’s Note: In the past few weeks, discussions in the crypto market have shifted from "how much more can Bitcoin rise" to "has the alt season already begun." After a round of increases, BTC has entered a phase of consolidation, while assets like ZEC, HYPE, and Lighter continue to strengthen. On-chain trading and speculative activities on Robinhood Chain and Solana have also rapidly heated up. Traditionally, this is often interpreted as a signal of risk appetite spreading from BTC to altcoins. However, as the fact that "altcoins are starting to outperform" has become directly observable in the market, a deeper question begins to emerge: behind this round of increases, is new capital entering the crypto market, or is existing capital being redistributed more aggressively?

In the latest issue of Delphi Digital's "The Hivemind," the discussion directly addresses this question. Participants Kevin Kelly, Jose Maria Macedo, Yan Liberman, Ceteris, and Jason Pagoulatos discuss the current state of the so-called "Alt Season" from the perspectives of macroeconomics, on-chain capital flows, token fundamentals, and market structure.

In this discussion, the most noteworthy aspect from Delphi is the breakdown of "whether the alt season has arrived" into a set of more fundamental structural questions: where is the capital coming from, how is risk appetite transmitted, which assets can truly capture new economic activity, and how far can the altcoin market go without comprehensive incremental liquidity.

First, the alt season is transitioning from "broad Beta" to "structural Alpha." In the past, a typical alt season would usually spread from BTC, ETH, large-cap altcoins to small-cap assets, driven by continuously entering incremental liquidity. However, the current market does not fully conform to this pattern: BTC, ETH, and SOL have not simultaneously experienced large-scale breakthroughs, yet capital is highly concentrated in a few strong assets like ZEC, HYPE, and Lighter, as well as high-volatility on-chain trading opportunities. This means that the current market is not characterized by "everything you buy goes up," but is closer to what Yan describes as an "alt picker’s environment"—a selective coin market. As unified liquidity Beta weakens, income, expenses, token emissions, and value capture mechanisms begin to become the reasons for differences among assets.

Second, the recovery of on-chain risk appetite does not equate to the entire crypto market welcoming new capital. In the past, an important basis for judging whether a bull market is expanding was whether external capital continued to enter. However, Jose's judgment of the current market is more cautious: many buy orders may simply be crypto investors who previously exited the market returning, rather than truly new capital. At the same time, products like FOMO and Robinhood Chain have indeed started to reach users who previously did not belong to the traditional Crypto Twitter circle. Both phenomena can coexist—there are new users in certain markets, but the entire asset class has not yet formed a sufficiently clear trend of incremental capital. Therefore, whether BTC, ETH, and SOL can expand again becomes an important verification condition for judging whether this round of market activity is "rotation" or "expansion."

Third, Tokenization and on-chain stocks are changing the way risk appetite is carried. Most applications in the past crypto market revolved around native tokens, with assets, liquidity, and trading demand highly self-circulating. The recent emergence of on-chain stocks and their derivative plays on Robinhood Chain and Solana has more clearly brought assets with off-chain economic value, such as stocks, into the crypto-native trading system for the first time. In the short term, this still contains a lot of memes, leverage, and speculative mechanisms; but in the longer term, the change lies in the fact that on-chain applications can begin to build new trading, revenue, and social products around traditional assets. What is truly worth observing is not how long a certain play can last, but whether on-chain finance is beginning to shift from "trading crypto assets" to "using crypto infrastructure to trade all assets."

Fourth, "narrative benefits" and "value capture" are being redefined. The development of RWA, Tokenization, and on-chain stocks can theoretically benefit the entire public chain ecosystem, but Delphi does not believe that value will flow evenly to all underlying assets. On the contrary, who can directly obtain trading fees, stable income, and continuous buy orders may be more important than "which chain this trend occurs on." For this reason, when discussing assets like ETH and HYPE, the real comparison is not which narrative is grander, but who can convert new activities into quantifiable economic value. This change is essentially a migration of the altcoin market from purely trading stories to trading cash flows and supply-demand structures.

If this discussion can be compressed into a judgment, it is: the altcoin market has occurred, but a truly comprehensive Alt Season still requires new capital and broader risk diffusion to prove it.

In this sense, the subject of this article is no longer just "the next altcoin that will rise," but rather that the crypto market is forming a new capital structure: when broad-based liquidity is no longer the only driving force, the differentiation between assets, the ability to capture value, and where the next buyer comes from will be more important than the label of "alt season" itself.

The following is the original content (for ease of reading and understanding, the original content has been reorganized):

TL;DR

The current "alt season" is closer to a structural market rather than a comprehensive rise; fundamentally, capital is shifting from unified Beta to a few strong assets and specific tracks.

Altcoins outperforming does not equate to large-scale new capital entering; it is essential to distinguish between external capital inflows and internal rotations within the crypto market.

BTC, ETH, and SOL have not simultaneously broken through, indicating that while risk appetite has spread, it is still insufficient to prove that the market has entered a phase driven by comprehensive liquidity.

The current market resembles an alt picker’s market, where asset performance differences are increasingly determined by income, expenses, token emissions, and value capture mechanisms.

The significance of on-chain stocks and Tokenization is not just the addition of a new asset; fundamentally, it is that crypto infrastructure is beginning to shift from "trading crypto assets" to "carrying more traditional asset trading."

RWA and Tokenization will not evenly benefit all public chains and tokens; what truly determines valuation elasticity is who can convert new activities into sustainable income and real buy orders.

Whether this round of market activity can upgrade from "rotation" to "comprehensive Alt Season" hinges not on how much altcoins have already risen, but on whether broader new capital and core assets will take over.

When broad-based liquidity is no longer the only driving force, the core question of the market shifts from "what to buy that will rise" to "who truly captures value and where the next buyer comes from."

Key Points of the Main Text

In the past few weeks, Bitcoin has not been the most active part of the crypto market.

Jason Pagoulatos from Delphi Digital observed that some conditions that previously drove Bitcoin's rise still exist: spot ETF capital flows are relatively stable, and derivatives have not shown the same level of excessive leverage. While Bitcoin has entered a phase of consolidation after rising, some altcoins have begun to take over the upward trend.

In his view, this actually aligns with a typical path of risk diffusion: BTC rises first, then enters consolidation, and capital seeks higher Beta assets. The difference this time is that this rise has not spread evenly to all altcoins but is concentrated in a few strong assets and new on-chain investment scenarios.

External market data also shows that the discussion indeed occurred after an exceptionally strong altcoin market. Statistics from The Block on September 9 indicate that ZEC rose about 86% in the past 30 days, while HYPE rose about 53% during the same period; ZEC once broke through $1000. Subsequently, the macro environment weakened, and on September 11, ZEC had fallen from its high to about $1134, and HYPE dropped to about $79, but ZEC still recorded about a 34% weekly increase and a 145% monthly increase. This means that the prices mentioned in the discussion are more of a market snapshot at the recording time rather than current prices.

The Alt Season Has Begun, But Not "All Coins Rising Together"

Ceteris describes the current market structure as a "barbell."

On one end are assets like ZEC, HYPE, and Lighter that have already established trends; on the other end are highly active on-chain speculation within ecosystems like Robinhood Chain and Solana. In contrast, traditional large-cap assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL have not simultaneously experienced breakthroughs of the same level.

This indicates that the so-called "alt season" is at least not the comprehensive rise commonly seen in the past.

Jose's concerns also lie here. He believes that while the market has clearly become stronger, there has not yet been enough clear reason to prove that large-scale new capital from outside the crypto market is entering. More capital may come from investors who previously held crypto assets and then exited, returning to buy back.

In other words, price increases and new capital entering are not the same thing.

Ceteris's observation is slightly different. He believes that some new on-chain applications are indeed reaching younger users who previously did not belong to the traditional Crypto Twitter circle, so new users and new capital have emerged in certain markets. However, if the question is expanded to the entire crypto market, he also believes the evidence is still insufficient.

His judgment criterion is straightforward: if BTC, ETH, and SOL can further break through in the future, there is more reason to believe that broader new capital is entering; if the rise continues to be highly concentrated in a few assets, then the current market is still closer to a capital rotation.

Yan Liberman believes that this does not prevent altcoins from continuing to perform.

The reason is that the crypto market does not need to wait for "all external capital to enter together" for individual tokens to have upward space. If a project's TVL, income, and expenses increase while token emissions decrease, supply and demand itself may change.

Therefore, he refers to the current market as an alt picker’s environment: rather than simply betting on a broad-based rise in altcoins, it is better to look for assets where fundamentals are improving, supply pressure is decreasing, but prices have not yet fully reflected these changes.

This also means that the keyword for this round of market activity may not be "Beta," but differentiation.

On-chain Stocks Are Becoming the New Entry Point for Risk Appetite

If strong altcoins represent existing funds seeking higher returns, then the recent changes in Robinhood Chain and Solana represent another trend worth noting: traditional assets are beginning to be integrated into the on-chain speculative system.

The program spent a considerable amount of time discussing on-chain stocks.

The most typical example is Robinhood Chain. Robinhood officially launched this network in July and included Stock Tokens as one of its core assets. According to Robinhood's official statement, these Stock Tokens are issued by Robinhood Assets (Jersey) Limited and essentially represent tokenized debt securities, with the corresponding assets collateralized on a 1:1 basis, but holders do not directly obtain legal or beneficial ownership of the related listed companies.

This point is very important.

"Stocks on-chain" does not equal "directly moving a real stock certificate onto the blockchain." Investors gain exposure to the economic performance of the underlying stocks on-chain, rather than a traditional direct shareholder identity.

However, from a trading perspective, this is already sufficient to open up many new portfolio strategies.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated on September 9 that Robinhood Chain then had about 200 Stock Tokens and was available to qualified users in over 120 countries and regions. Data from The Block shows that as of September 4, the value of tokenized assets on Robinhood Chain had grown from $11.9 million on July 1 to $149.4 million, with about 77% coming from stock-related tokens.

Subsequently, familiar tactics from the crypto market quickly layered onto these assets.

In the program, Ceteris mentioned that some projects began pairing Meme Tokens with stock assets, establishing new trading structures between stocks, Meme coins, and liquidity pools; a new type of Launchpad has also emerged on Solana around stock assets and Meme Tokens.

This enthusiasm is not just narrative. On September 2, the token issuance platform Pons on Robinhood Chain saw daily fees reach about $5.95 million, with a trading volume of about $544 million that day, and nearly 25,000 tokens were created.

Ceteris believes that in the short term, these tactics still carry very obvious speculative and gambling attributes, but what is more noteworthy is not how long a particular Meme coin can rise, but that assets like stocks with off-chain fundamental value are beginning to truly become the underlying raw materials for on-chain applications.

Many past Crypto applications were highly "self-referential": crypto assets provided liquidity for crypto protocols, which were then traded by crypto users for new crypto assets.

On-chain stocks provide another path—developers can build trading, lending, yield, collateral, and social products around real-world assets. Therefore, Ceteris judges that even if the current Meme craze cools down quickly, "stocks on-chain" itself may still be an important direction for the next one to two years.

Is Tokenization Beneficial for ETH? Delphi is More Concerned About Who Actually Receives the Income

This also raises another question: if Tokenization and RWA become important narratives in the next phase, does it mean that ETH will naturally become the biggest beneficiary?

The guests from Delphi did not provide such a direct answer.

Ceteris believes that if the market continues to trade around currency devaluation and the expansion of on-chain assets, there is indeed a possibility for ETH to regain the narrative of "on-chain currency." However, from a practical allocation perspective, he has not significantly increased his ETH position because of this.

Jason's judgment goes further: even if Tokenization itself is beneficial for the entire on-chain ecosystem, the protocols that truly capture trading volume, fees, and liquidity may not necessarily be ETH itself.

For example, assets like HYPE and Lighter, which directly engage in trading activities, may exhibit higher performance elasticity and price beta under the same RWA and Tokenization logic.

In other words, from an asset pricing perspective, "which chain a trend occurs on" and "who ultimately captures the economic value created by this trend" are two different questions.

This is also another layer of meaning behind the so-called "coin selection market."

When the entire market no longer relies on a unified liquidity wave to rise, investors begin to re-examine: where does the income flow? Who receives the fees? Is there continuous token issuance? Has income formed a buyback or other value capture mechanism?

In such a market, a narrative can simultaneously benefit many projects, but the final price performance may be highly differentiated.

What to Watch Next is Not the "Altcoin Season Index," but New Buyers

The Delphi guests remain generally positive about the market, but the risks they discussed at the end of the program actually reveal the most important validation conditions for this round of market activity.

First, it is the macro policy environment.

The program repeatedly mentioned the so-called debasement trade. This does not refer to the U.S. government formally announcing plans to promote dollar devaluation, but rather a trading narrative where the market links fiscal pressure, debt management, and liquidity support policies to scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin.

This background did not appear out of thin air. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would raise the single transaction limit for liquidity support repurchases of 10 to 30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. Reuters subsequently reported that the related policy temporarily suppressed long-term yields and the dollar, reinforcing the narrative of "debasement trade" for gold and Bitcoin.

Jason believes that what could truly change the current risk appetite environment may not necessarily be a specific crypto-native event, but rather a sudden reversal of policy conditions. For example, if inflation continues to rise, forcing monetary policy to be tighter than market expectations, the background conditions that previously supported risk assets may change.

Yan provided a more specific judgment: if BTC continues to rise, but the market's expectations for further policy easing do not increase in tandem, he would become more cautious.

The logic is simple—higher asset prices raise the requirements for "the next buyer." If prices keep rising but cannot explain where the new purchasing power comes from, the difficulty of continuing the market expansion will increase.

The second thing to observe is whether BTC, ETH, and SOL can take over.

If these core assets break through again while on-chain activity continues to grow, then the current localized altcoin market is more likely to escalate into widespread capital inflow.

Conversely, if the market maintains a long-term structure of "a few strong coins rising + high speculation on-chain assets exploding," then the so-called altcoin season may still just be a highly concentrated game of existing stocks.

For this reason, the most valuable judgment from this episode of Hivemind is not simply that "altcoin season has arrived." More accurately, the altcoin market has arrived, but whether a comprehensive bull market has come still needs new funds to prove.

And until the answer emerges, this resembles a market where coin selection, rotation, and risk management occur simultaneously: finding the fastest rising assets is certainly important, but after prices have already risen significantly, who is still willing to continue buying, where the funds come from, and when to start realizing profits may be the true variables that determine how far this market can go.