1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Kevin Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole is approaching, with a 60% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in September

• Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will deliver a speech at Jackson Hole on August 28, as the market continues to seek his stance on inflation and fiscal issues.
• CME data shows a probability of about 60.4% for maintaining interest rates unchanged in September, with a cumulative probability of about 39.6% for a 25 basis point rate hike.
• This week, Richmond Fed President Barkin and other officials will also speak.
  Market Impact: The speech and core PCE data together form the core of short-term policy pricing, which may affect term premiums and the performance of risk assets.

International Commodities

Russian media reports that the US and Iran will restart negotiations, crude oil significantly retreats

• Iran and Oman are discussing the establishment of a temporary navigation corridor in the Strait of Hormuz and a plan to clear mines, aiming to advance a permanent route within 30 to 60 days.
• Sources from Pakistan and Iran revealed that the US and Iran have reached a consensus on the terms of a ceasefire agreement, including freedom of navigation in the Strait, which is expected to be announced and negotiations initiated in the coming days.
• US Secretary of State Rubio stated that there are currently no plans for a new round of military strikes against Iran, opting instead to apply pressure through naval blockades and Treasury sanctions; Trump claimed that all mines in international waters have been cleared.
  Market Impact: Geopolitical risk premiums are rapidly dissipating, with WTI crude oil falling nearly 2% and Brent also retreating, alleviating short-term concerns about inflation stickiness, which is favorable for risk assets.

Macroeconomic Policy

Canada imposes retaliatory tariffs on the US, US considers further measures

• Starting September 8, Canada will impose tariffs of 15%-50% on approximately $20 billion worth of US goods, with metals facing tariffs as high as 50%, while providing CAD 7.5 billion in support funds.
• The US government is discussing imposing additional punitive measures on Canada, which may further escalate trade frictions.
  Market Impact: The intensifying trade tensions in North America may affect related supply chains and market sentiment, but in the short term, this is partially offset by the easing news from the US and Iran.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,650/ounce, -0.25%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $68.6/ounce, +0.05%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $80.47/barrel, -2.12%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $83.4/barrel, -2.12%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 98.93, +0.02%

Driving Factors Analysis: The expectation of US-Iran negotiations significantly reduces the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil's sharp retreat becoming the dominant factor. Gold fluctuates between falling oil prices and safe-haven demand, while silver remains relatively independent due to its industrial properties. Institutions believe that short-term commodities are dominated by geopolitical easing, with falling oil prices helping to alleviate inflation and interest rate hike expectations, reflecting asset linkage as geopolitical cooling → oil price decline → inflation concerns ease → risk assets supported.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $78,770, -1.17%
• ETH: Approximately $2,4754, -1.37%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: $2.73 trillion, -1.9%
• Market Liquidation Situation: $624 million liquidated in 24 hours, with $322 million in long positions liquidated.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC's current price is approximately $78,800, with significant short liquidation pressure in the $80,000 - $81,500 range; if it breaks above $80,000, it may trigger noticeable short squeezes. There is also dense long liquidation in the $77,000 - $79,000 range; if it loses support near $78,000, leveraged longs may accelerate their exit.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Recently maintained net inflow, with a net inflow of $338 million yesterday, and a current 24-hour net inflow of $29.9 million.

Driving Factors Analysis: The easing of US-Iran tensions and falling oil prices boost risk appetite, with the cryptocurrency market following suit in high-level fluctuations. BTC briefly tested the $80,000 mark, with ETH performing relatively in sync. Institutional consensus points to short-term support from liquidity and policy narratives, with a need to focus on core PCE and macro transmission after the Jackson Hole speech.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 53,577.40 points, up 0.30%
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,677.28 points, up 0.32%
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,151.30 points, up 0.66%, with rebounds in technology and semiconductor sectors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $213.05, up 2.19% (ending seven-day decline)
• AAPL: $309.90, down 0.14%
• MSFT: $491.71, up 0.90%
• GOOGL: Approximately $347, slightly down
• AMZN: $261.06, down 0.39%
• META: $570.05, up 1.97%
• TSLA: $350.25, up 0.37%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: All three major indices rose, with the technology sector rebounding after Nvidia ended its consecutive decline. The storage and optical communication sectors saw widespread gains, with AMD rising nearly 5%. Funds flowed back into growth stocks under the easing of US-Iran tensions and falling yields, but stock differentiation remains, with consumer technology relatively stable.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductors/Storage Collective Rebound

• Representative Stocks: AMD rose nearly 5%, Micron Technology and SK Hynix rose over 2%, Seagate Technology and Western Digital rose over 3%.
• Driving Factors: The 401% year-on-year surge in South Korea's DRAM export prices reinforces the narrative of tight supply and demand, combined with Nvidia's rebound boosting sentiment.

Optical Communication Strongly Strengthened

• Representative Stocks: Lumentum rose nearly 7%, Applied Optoelectronics rose over 5%, Coherent and Ciena rose over 4%.
• Driving Factors: Technical recovery after previous adjustments and expectations for AI infrastructure demand.

Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks Strong

• Representative Stocks: Robinhood rose over 8%, Circle and Coinbase rose over 4%, Strategy rose over 3%.
• Driving Factors: BTC's high-level operation and the rebound in risk appetite directly boost trading platforms and Bitcoin-related holdings.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Nvidia (NVDA) - Ending Seven-Day Decline and Upcoming Financial Report

Event Overview: Nvidia rose over 2%, ending a seven-day decline. The company simultaneously launched the Jetson Orin Nano 2 robotic computer, featuring 78 TOPS computing power, 8GB memory, and an eight-core Arm CPU, with inference performance doubled compared to the previous generation and a 40% reduction in power consumption in 15-watt mode, primarily targeting robotics, drones, and edge AI applications, expected to enter mass production in the first half of 2027. The second-quarter financial report will be released after hours, with the market focusing on data center revenue, gross margin, and forward guidance.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that the rebound after consecutive declines reflects emotional recovery and a gamble on earnings expectations. The new Jetson product strengthens the layout of edge AI and physical AI, while server price increases help to pass on memory costs. Analysts are concerned about whether customer capital expenditures will slow and the impact of intensified competition on market share; earnings guidance will be key for short-term pricing.
Investment Insight: The mid-term logic still looks at AI infrastructure and robotics demand, but close monitoring of data center growth rates and guidance changes in tonight's earnings report is necessary.

2. AMD - Significant Rise of Nearly 5%

Event Overview: AMD rose nearly 5%, leading the semiconductor sector. The company announced the introduction of UCIe interconnect technology into Versal adaptive SoCs, supporting low-power, high-bandwidth chiplet communication; it was also upgraded to "Strong Buy" by Raymond James, with a target price raised to $641. The Helios rack-level AI platform is expected to start shipping in September.
Market Interpretation: Institutions are optimistic about its progress in AI server CPUs and complete rack solutions, with valuation attractiveness increasing after previous adjustments. Analysts emphasize that the data center business has doubled year-on-year growth and that customers like OpenAI and Meta are integrating designs, believing that a multi-supplier landscape is beneficial for AMD's market share increase.
Investment Insight: As a diversified allocation for AI computing power, focus on the shipping rhythm of Helios and the proportion of data center revenue.

3. Micron Technology (MU) - Strengthening Storage Tightness Logic

Event Overview: Micron Technology rose over 2%, with the storage sector broadly rising. South Korea's DRAM export price reached $92,183 per kilogram in August, soaring 401% year-on-year, and rising about 12.5 times from the 2023 low. Goldman Sachs expects the global DRAM supply-demand gap to widen from 5.0% this year to 5.9% next year, potentially continuing until 2028; TrendForce indicates that the proportion of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron's HBM wafers will rise to 30%.
Market Interpretation: Institutions have raised their optimism about the storage supercycle, believing that HBM and high-capacity server DRAM will continue to absorb capacity, while ordinary DRAM supply will further tighten. Analysts point out that pricing power has significantly increased, but caution is needed regarding the cyclical risks brought by capacity release after 2027.
Investment Insight: Tight supply and demand provide mid-term support; it is recommended to pay attention to subsequent contract prices and capacity expansion progress, avoiding purely chasing highs.

4. Lumentum / Applied Optoelectronics - Optical Communication Recovery

Event Overview: Lumentum rose nearly 7%, Applied Optoelectronics rose over 5%, and Coherent and Ciena also rose over 4%, with the optical communication sector collectively rebounding.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this is a technical recovery after a significant previous adjustment, with the demand logic for 800G/1.6T optical modules and high-speed interconnects from AI data centers still in place. Analysts focus on order backlogs and capacity implementation progress, with high short-term elasticity but significant volatility.
Investment Insight: High beta theme allocation is suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance, requiring monitoring of industry cycles and competitive landscapes.

5. Robinhood (HOOD) - Leading Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks

Event Overview: Robinhood rose over 8%, Circle and Coinbase rose over 4%, and Strategy rose over 3%, with cryptocurrency concept stocks collectively strengthening.
Market Interpretation: BTC's maintenance at high levels and the rebound in risk appetite directly boost trading platforms and Bitcoin-related holdings. Institutions point out that expectations for regulatory clarity (Clarity Act) and trading volume elasticity are core drivers, highly correlated with BTC prices in the short term.
Investment Insight: Dual-driven targets by high elasticity policies and cryptocurrency prices, with significant volatility, necessitating strict position management and monitoring of BTC's key technical levels.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the GLD gold ETF and IBIT Bitcoin ETF have returned to the top ten in trading volume, pushing down the semiconductor ETF that dominated the rankings all summer, signaling that "devaluation trading" is beginning to replace AI frenzy—investors are shifting from chasing AI growth to allocating hard assets for value preservation. The semiconductor ETF still maintains high trading activity, but has decreased compared to the summer peak.

2. South Korea's DRAM export prices soared 401% year-on-year in August, reinforcing expectations of tight supply and demand until after 2027.

3. According to Russian news agency reports, sources from the Pakistani military and Iranian security departments revealed that the US and Iran have reached a consensus on the terms of a ceasefire agreement, which includes freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The sources stated, "Consensus has been reached on the ceasefire agreement, which includes terms for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."

4. Morgan Stanley stated that the scale of off-balance sheet commitments related to the five major cloud providers, Nvidia, and Broadcom's AI has exceeded $3.1 trillion.

5. Anthropic expects a potential market size of over $30 trillion, with an IPO valuation potentially reaching $2 trillion.

6. Apple (AAPL.O) released the M6 and M5 Ultra chips, along with new Mac mini and Mac Studio models. The M6 is Apple's first chip using a 2-nanometer process, equipped with a 12-core CPU, 12-core GPU, and dual 16-core neural engines; the M5 Ultra features a four-die architecture for the first time, with up to a 36-core CPU, 80-core GPU, 512GB unified memory, and 1.2TB/s memory bandwidth.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|----|----|-------------|-------| | Evening | US | July Core PCE Price Index | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

August 26 (Wednesday)

1. ★★★★★ US releases July Core PCE, personal income and spending, revised Q2 GDP, durable goods orders;
2. ★★★★★ Nvidia (NVDA) releases financial report after hours (core focus on data center revenue, gross margin, and forward guidance);
3. ★★★ CrowdStrike, Salesforce release financial reports after hours
   August 27 (Thursday)
4. US releases initial jobless claims, trade balance, wholesale inventories; Jackson Hole annual meeting opens;
5. ★★★ Marvell (MRVL), Ulta, Gap, etc. release financial reports after hours.
   August 28 (Friday)
6. ★★★★★ Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh delivers a keynote speech at Jackson Hole (Beijing time 22:00), with the market focusing on his stance on inflation and policy path;
7. US releases Chicago PMI, initial value of non-farm employment benchmark revision, final value of University of Michigan consumer confidence.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe that the expectation of US-Iran negotiations significantly reduces geopolitical risk premiums, and the retreat in crude oil helps alleviate inflation concerns and boost risk appetite. The surge in South Korean DRAM prices reinforces the narrative of tight storage supply and demand, leading to rebounds in the semiconductor and optical communication sectors. Nvidia ends its consecutive decline and is about to release its financial report, becoming a short-term focus. The cryptocurrency market remains at high levels. Overall strategy suggests focusing on core PCE results, Nvidia guidance, and the Jackson Hole speech, maintaining flexibility on high-valuation growth stocks while observing asset rotation after energy declines.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.