yields

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes tweeted that the rising yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury (TSY) will force the Trump administration to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible, otherwise the traditional financial markets (TradFi) will face the risk of collapse. He also stated that he is taking this opportunity to buy the dip.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that as the market prices in inflation, global bond yields are rising.

According to Crypto in America, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a formal markup of the cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, for Thursday. The final text of the relevant provisions is expected to be published before the meeting, and lawmakers must submit amendments by the deadline.Previously, the initial review was temporarily halted due to opposition from industry insiders, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, regarding the stablecoin yield provisions. Currently, cryptocurrency institutions like Coinbase generally accept the new text, but some banks serving retail customers are still sending letters to the Senate through industry associations, requesting further tightening of the "interest on deposits" space for stablecoins to prevent depositor migration.Meanwhile, some Democratic lawmakers may vote against the bill in its entirety during the committee stage due to dissatisfaction with potential conflicts of interest clauses related to Trump and his family involving crypto. This could lead to the bill passing through the committee along party lines, but facing uncertainty in garnering bipartisan support in the full chamber later.

TD Cowen pointed out that the disagreements surrounding the stablecoin yield mechanism remain difficult to bridge, which may delay the advancement of the U.S. crypto market structure bill and even affect its chances of passing within the year.Several banking organizations, including the American Bankers Association, have formally opposed the relevant compromise proposals, arguing that allowing crypto platforms to offer stablecoin yields to users would impact traditional banks. Analysts state that the positions of banks and crypto platforms on this issue are opposed, and in the short term, "there is unlikely to be a middle ground," which has become a key obstacle in the current legislative process.

Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett posted on the X platform that U.S. Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks issued a joint statement regarding the compromise proposal on stablecoin earnings in Section 404 of the CLARITY Act. The statement may indicate that the relevant agreement is close to being finalized.The statement said that the two have discussed concerns from various stakeholders about the banking industry's worries regarding deposit outflows, and the related compromise proposal will prohibit stablecoin rewards similar to bank deposit interest while allowing crypto companies to offer other forms of customer rewards.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury yields rose during the Asian trading session, and the lack of relief in the Middle East situation kept oil prices high. This week's intensive central bank meeting schedule has become the market focus, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% for the third consecutive meeting. According to Tradeweb data, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2.3 basis points to 3.798%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1.4 basis points to 4.323%.

Investment bank TD Cowen stated that the disagreements surrounding the CLARITY Act go beyond the issue of stablecoin yields, and multiple real-world obstacles may slow down the legislative process.First, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is understaffed, with only one commissioner currently in office. In this situation, Congress is unlikely to feel comfortable handing over more cryptocurrency regulatory responsibilities to the agency, and filling the personnel gaps will take months. Second, the issue of prediction markets is heating up. Whether to include it in the bill's regulation, as well as potential insider trading and conflicts of political interest (including controversies related to Trump-related projects), may lead some Democratic lawmakers to oppose the bill.At the same time, the ongoing controversy surrounding the Trump family's cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial is increasing the political sensitivity of the bill, making bipartisan consensus harder to achieve. Geopolitics has also become a variable. Discussions about Iran potentially using cryptocurrency payments are reinforcing the focus on anti-money laundering provisions and could even introduce amendments detrimental to the industry. Additionally, some lawmakers are attempting to include the Credit Card Competition Act, which, if advanced, could trigger new conflicts of interest and further delay the overall legislation.

According to a report by CryptoSlate, the White House Economic Advisory Council recently released a research report indicating that banning the yield on stablecoins has very limited protective effects on bank loans, yet it significantly reduces consumers' ability to earn returns through digital cash. This conclusion directly challenges the core argument of the banking industry supporting the yield ban and provides new policy backing for the advancement of the CLARITY Act.Currently, Treasury Secretary Bessent and SEC Chair Atkins have both publicly expressed support for the bill, indicating a convergence of positions between the executive branch and regulatory agencies. However, the Senate Banking Committee has yet to announce a timeline for the bill's review, and political maneuvering remains the biggest variable.Analysts point out that if the committee can complete its review before the summer recess, the probability of the bill passing will significantly increase; otherwise, it will face the dual risks of election pressure and legislative delays.

The U.S. banking industry has questioned the stablecoin yield report released by the White House, arguing that the conclusions of the report are based on incorrect issues.The White House Council of Economic Advisers' research report states that banning stablecoin yields would have a negligible impact on bank lending, only potentially increasing loans by about $2.1 billion. Sayee Srinivasan, chief economist of the American Bankers Association, and Yikai Wang, vice president, stated that the core policy concern is whether allowing stablecoins to generate yields would encourage deposit outflows, particularly from community banks to large institutions, thereby increasing financing costs and reducing local lending. The American Bankers Association acknowledges that the financial incentives to pursue high-yield stablecoins will prompt households and businesses to move funds out of banks. Currently, the cryptocurrency and banking industries are negotiating the terms of a Senate bill, with the prohibition of interest payments on stablecoins being a key point of contention.

Patrick Witte, the Executive Director of the White House Digital Assets Presidential Advisory Committee, stated on Monday that substantive progress is being made in Senate negotiations surrounding the Clarity Act, with a compromise reached on the issue of stablecoin yields expected to hold, and the focus of negotiations has shifted to other unresolved topics.The issue of stablecoin yields was previously the biggest obstacle to advancing the bill. Banking lobbyists successfully persuaded some senators that providing yields similar to bank interest to stablecoin holders would threaten the traditional banking deposit base, causing the bill to reach an impasse. Witte stated, "We hope that the compromise reached will be durable and stable. Resolving this issue is a prerequisite for advancing other pending matters." Last week, the White House economic advisors released a report downplaying the risk concerns raised by the banking industry; in response, the American Bankers Association rebutted on Monday, claiming the White House's arguments were flawed.In addition to stablecoin yields, the bill also faces several disagreements, including illegal financial protection mechanisms in the DeFi space and a demand from Democrats to prohibit senior government officials (specifically targeting President Trump) from profiting from the crypto industry. Witte did not disclose which topics have reached consensus but indicated that negotiations have "made considerable progress behind the scenes," stating, "We are very close to comprehensively resolving these issues." The Clarity Act still needs to go through the Senate Banking Committee's markup review process before being submitted for a full Senate vote. Witte expressed optimism about reaching a final agreement, noting that many issues that previously seemed stuck have gradually been resolved.

According to Decrypt, the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released a report stating that banning stablecoin yield products would only increase community bank loan volumes by 0.026% (approximately $500 million), with the overall banking sector loan increment also being only 0.02%, resulting in a net welfare cost of $800 million. The report directly refuted the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) warning that small banks would lose $1.3 trillion in deposits.At the time of the report's release, the Clarity Act, which regulates stablecoin yields, was still stalled in Congress. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the bill would enter the review process in the second half of April and aims to complete legislation before May.

According to Crypto In America, the core disagreement between the U.S. cryptocurrency and banking industries regarding the stablecoin yield mechanism may be close to resolution. Several informed sources have revealed that both sides have initiated a new round of communication regarding the latest compromise plan. Although the details have not been disclosed, the overall expectation is becoming optimistic.A previous draft pushed by U.S. senators had sparked dissatisfaction in the industry, with institutions such as Coinbase and Stripe expressing concerns. The market is focused on the "Clarity Act," which is expected to enter the committee review stage later this month. If the yield issue is alleviated, the legislative focus will shift to remaining topics such as DeFi, tokenization, and token classification.In addition, a White House research report on stablecoin yields and their impact on the banking system has yet to be released. It is said that the overall conclusion of the study leans towards supporting the cryptocurrency industry, and the reason for the delay in publication remains unclear.

According to Politico, three informed sources revealed that cryptocurrency companies and Wall Street firms will review the new stablecoin yield agreement text from April 2 to 3, which was jointly drafted by Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks.Currently, the plan is to limit the review of the text to relevant parties and not to make it publicly available on a broader scale. Last week, parties visiting Capitol Hill were allowed to read the text on-site but were not permitted to take copies out.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline from their highs, with investors gradually shifting their focus to the risks of the Middle East war on economic growth and inflationary pressures. The surge in energy prices has raised concerns about inflation, prompting the market to significantly lower expectations for a U.S. rate cut.Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade stated that a series of U.S. economic data released this week will be crucial for shaping expectations around monetary policy. Tradeweb data shows that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 3.893%; the 10-year yield dropped by 4 basis points to 4.4%.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has fallen below $68,000, down about 2% in the last 24 hours. The 48-hour liquidation heatmap shows a significant concentration of liquidity below $66,000, indicating that Bitcoin may further decline in the short term.In terms of funding rates, the perpetual contract funding rate has turned negative, with shorts needing to pay fees to longs, reflecting the bearish sentiment in the market. The macro environment continues to deteriorate. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond is approaching 4.5%, the highest level since last year, reducing the appeal of risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The MOVE index, which measures volatility in the U.S. bond market, has risen 18% in the past 24 hours, indicating increasing uncertainty.Meanwhile, Ukraine's disruption of Russian oil circulation has derailed Trump's plans to ease supply tensions, with both Brent crude and WTI crude rising about 3%. The U.S. dollar index DXY has also risen to 100, further suppressing risk assets.

According to Jinshi, the yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury bond rose to 4%, increasing by 10 basis points during the day; the latest pricing of interest rate futures shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by about 15 basis points by the end of this year.

According to researcher Vadym's analysis, DeFi is expected to generate approximately $8 billion in on-chain revenue by 2025. The largest source is AMM trading fees, accounting for about $4.2 billion, with Uniswap, Meteora, and Raydium making up 62%; lending interest is the second largest source, around $1.76 billion, with money markets like Aave and Morpho contributing over 60% of DeFi's total TVL, although about half of the lending demand is due to cyclical leverage operations.RWA contributes $600 million to $900 million, with U.S. Treasury bonds making up about 41% of the RWA market. Perpetual contract funding rates contribute about $300 million, mainly from Ethena. It is noteworthy that more than half of the stablecoin deposit yields in the Ethereum ecosystem are below U.S. Treasury bond rates. Potential sources of revenue such as insurance underwriting and on-chain options have yet to be fully developed. Analyzing Sky (formerly MakerDAO) as an example, it is pointed out that about 70% of its revenue comes from off-chain assets, reflecting that TradFi revenue is accelerating into DeFi through licensed channels.