winter

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, a certain address has transferred a total of 2,300 BTC to the Wintermute recharge address since June 25, with a total value of 142 million USD and an average recharge price of 61,813 USD.The most recent transfer occurred 6 hours ago, valued at 50,720,000 USD. The source of funds for this address is Paxos, and the ownership of the address has not yet been confirmed.

According to Bloomberg, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute plans to invest approximately $1 billion over the next five years in high-frequency trading and AI data center infrastructure to expand into traditional financial markets such as stocks, commodities, and foreign exchange. The related expenditures are expected to be funded by retained earnings.Currently, the non-crypto market contributes about 10% of the company's revenue, with a goal of increasing this proportion to over 50% by the end of 2027. Wintermute's average daily trading volume this year has decreased from about $15 billion last year to $10 billion.

Wintermute released a market update indicating that the U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July, significantly weaker than market expectations, leading to a drop in September rate hike expectations from 55% to 40%, and driving a broad rebound in risk assets.Gold led the gains, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and altcoins generally rising, while Brent crude oil fell by 6.85%.

Wintermute released a report stating that the upcoming U.S. CPI data to be announced on Wednesday will be key in testing whether the recent interest rate repricing can be sustained. The cryptocurrency market has joined the ranks of rising risk appetite. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow for five consecutive trading days, totaling $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April; the Ethereum ETF has also seen a net inflow for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by $244.9 million, with BlackRock accounting for over 80% of the combined inflow of $1.1 billion for both.These inflows occurred against a backdrop of relatively low trading volume, more characteristic of institutional planned allocations rather than aggressive momentum buying, and reversed the narrative of fund rotation away from Bitcoin over the past two weeks, indicating that ETF demand is being matched by supply from elsewhere.On the institutional front, Wells Fargo announced it will launch a tokenized deposit business this fall, starting with the USD-GBP corridor and operating on its own chain, joining the ranks of JPMorgan and Citigroup to bring settlement rails on-chain.Meanwhile, the Senate Majority Leader submitted a motion to end debate on the CLARITY Act early Saturday morning, which will undergo procedural voting on September 15, requiring support from at least seven non-Republican senators. The improvement in ETF inflows is encouraging but still represents a preliminary signal. A strong weekly performance alone is insufficient to confirm a structural shift; the entire risk asset sector has just been repriced due to one piece of data. If Wednesday's CPI exceeds expectations and pushes the probability of a rate hike in September back above 50%, it could quickly alter the core logic supporting the current upward trend.Recent key catalysts include the CPI on August 12, the PPI on the 13th, retail sales data on the 14th, followed by the Jackson Hole meeting from August 27-29, and the vote to end debate on the CLARITY Act on September 15. Until ETF inflows and digital asset treasury activities prove their sustainability throughout the remainder of the summer, it is advisable to remain cautious, even as the market increasingly trades on institutional terms.

According to the WSJ, Wintermute's U.S. subsidiary has registered as a broker-dealer, marking the company's official entry into the regulated U.S. financial market. This registration qualifies it to apply to become a designated market maker on securities exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ, providing a foundation for its expansion into the traditional financial services sector. The report noted that Wintermute is competing with large market-making institutions such as Jane Street Capital and Citadel Securities.

According to the Financial Times, after three years of record low stagnation, Chinese venture capital firms are accelerating the fundraising of new funds, seeking to capitalize on investors' renewed interest in the Chinese technology sector.Data from Asante Capital shows that at least 60 new dollar funds are planning to raise a total of about $35 billion, of which about 40 are venture capital funds. HSG, IDG Capital, Matrix Partners China, and Ming Shi Capital are promoting new funds or preparing to start fundraising, while ZhenFund and Qiming Venture Partners have recently completed fundraising.The successful listings of technology companies such as Zhipu and MiniMax, as well as progress in projects like The Dark Side of the Moon, DeepSeek, and the robotics field, have prompted investors to refocus on Chinese technology. Some investors view allocating to Chinese AI as a way to hedge bets on the U.S. market, as Chinese companies are highly competitive on costs and offer lower-priced model services.However, market participants indicate that this does not mean Chinese venture capital has returned to a boom period, but rather that dollar fundraising has selectively restarted after three consecutive years of low levels.Preqin data shows that in 2022, a total of 1,105 China-related funds raised $150 billion, while in 2025, only 97 funds raised $13.6 billion.Currently, some large U.S. investors remain cautious due to restrictions on sensitive technology investments, while European and Middle Eastern funds show stronger interest. Investors are vying for more co-investment rights in the current "buyer’s market" and are demanding fund managers to invest more of their own capital. Meanwhile, a large amount of capital is competing for a limited number of high-confidence projects, particularly concentrated in the AI sector.

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated that the next round of altcoin season may have only a few winners, as market funds are further concentrating on leading tokens. Wintermute's data shows that in the first half of 2026, institutional clients accounted for 72% of its over-the-counter trading spot volume, a record high. Institutional funds typically reduce activity about a day after a significant price increase, while retail funds maintain activity for an average of about three days, indicating that institutional capital tends to concentrate on a few tokens and exit trades more quickly.From an overall market perspective, CryptoQuant data shows that the trading volume of altcoins priced in Bitcoin has approached its lowest level since 2021. Currently, the top ten non-stablecoin altcoins account for approximately 80.5% of the market capitalization of non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin crypto assets. Additionally, Kaiko data shows that the top ten altcoins now account for 63% of the overall altcoin trading volume.

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.

According to a report by South Korea's "Daily Economic News" on July 12, driven by the stock market investment boom and sustained housing demand, the five major commercial banks in South Korea (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, NH Nonghyup) saw a surge in household loans in the first half of this year. As of the end of June, the household loan balance of the five major banks (excluding policy loans) reached 647.57 trillion won, an increase of about 3.7 trillion won compared to the end of last year. This means that in just half a year, the five major banks have exhausted 85.3% of the annual new loan limit set by financial regulatory authorities (approximately 4.33 trillion won), with two banks even exceeding the annual new limit ahead of schedule.To meet the strict overall control targets set by financial regulatory departments, banks are currently accelerating the tightening of credit thresholds. For example, KB Kookmin Bank recently significantly lowered the maximum limit for housing loans from 600 million won to 300 million won, while other banks are focusing on limiting new credit loans and reducing overdraft account limits. However, in just the first nine days of July, the household loan balance of the five major banks increased by over 1 trillion won. Industry insiders point out that against the backdrop of a severely limited remaining quota, banks will have to adopt stricter lending measures in the second half of the year to control the annual growth rate, and the South Korean market is expected to face a severe "credit winter."

Wintermute announced on platform X that it has executed its first power forward trade, referencing the pricing of NVIDIA H100.The market maker stated that computing power is becoming an independent market, and tools for pricing and hedging are now beginning to emerge.

According to Decrypt, market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin's recent nearly 10% rebound is a "textbook rebound," rather than a structural change in the market, and the company remains cautious.Wintermute pointed out that the three driving factors behind the rebound are the easing macro environment, the Federal Reserve's dovish tone, and positive news regarding Ethereum and institutional adoption, which are sufficient to explain the current market without seeking a larger narrative. The company believes the market may continue to "rise slightly." However, Wintermute stated that a single data point does not constitute a trend, and more sustained inflows are needed to confirm a structural change; until broader capital flows genuinely shift, the current situation is merely a corrective rally.

According to CoinDesk, the market maker Wintermute's over-the-counter trading department pointed out in a report that, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and geopolitical news, Bitcoin and Ethereum are falling towards the lower end of their recent range. Wintermute's options pricing indicates that Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $61,242 and $63,563 in the next 24 hours, while Ethereum is expected to fluctuate between $1,606 and $1,694.The report also noted that the correlation among various tokens is rising, liquidity is shrinking with the arrival of summer, and there are no signs of new institutional buying in ETF inflows. Wintermute has marked $59,000 as a key observation point; if the current pressure continues, this level may become a support for the bear market low. Three catalysts will dominate the market direction for the remainder of the week: the sustainability of the peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the PCE inflation data to be released on Thursday, and the end-of-month quarterly options expiration, which may amplify market volatility due to traders rolling over or closing positions.

Wintermute announced that it has completed its first OTC options trade for SpaceX (SPCX).

Wintermute released its weekly market report, stating that as of the week ending June 15, the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, along with CPI data, has boosted market risk appetite. Wintermute believes that the risk-reward ratio for Bitcoin at just over $60,000 is quite attractive; each sell-off eliminates weak holders, leaving a group with higher quality holdings and stronger conviction. However, this does not mean that a bottom has been established. Before the situation truly improves, it is not impossible to fall into the $50,000 range. Currently, the position structure has been somewhat cleared, and net selling pressure has eased. What really needs attention is the flow of funds, rather than prices or news headlines.The real turning point in the last cycle was the continuous growth of inflows into ETFs and stablecoins, and there are currently no signs of this. Therefore, blindly chasing any upward trend is futile. In the short term, Waller's speech on Wednesday is key. If dovish sentiment indicates a softening of core rates and a drop in oil prices, the market will welcome good news; if hawkish sentiment suggests rates rising to 4.2%, the good news will end. Besides that, the agreement signed between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland on Friday is the truly important event.

Wintermute stated in its latest market report that there was a significant rebound in the market last week, driven by two main factors: first, the May CPI data met expectations (year-on-year 4.2%), and there was no unexpected overheating as previously feared by the market; second, the end of the Iran conflict led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a sharp decline in oil prices.Wintermute believes that since October 2025, Bitcoin has experienced three pullbacks of over 20%, and the current drop from $83,000 to $60,000 is considered a "bear market false breakout." Currently, there has been no structural reversal in the inflows of ETFs, stablecoins, and digital asset treasury (DAT), and liquidity remains a key factor limiting the sustainability of the rebound.The report pointed out that the risk-reward ratio for BTC around $60,000 is attractive, but the bottom has not yet been confirmed, and the possibility of further probing down to the $50,000 range cannot be ruled out.

According to BBX data, last week institutional research qualitatively shifted historically, with Bitcoin reserve companies accelerating deleveraging. The core dynamics are as follows:Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered PLC (LSE: $STAN), released a research report on June 12, officially declaring that "the crypto winter is likely over." He believes that the $59,000 level for Bitcoin has formed the low point of this bear market cycle, marking a significant turning point in market sentiment. Kendrick stated that a large amount of IPO allocation funds will flow back into risk assets after the SpaceX IPO, and the funding flow for Bitcoin spot ETFs is expected to achieve a structural reversal after this adjustment, combined with the continuous expansion of corporate reserve demand, supporting his view with three factors. This is the strongest "bear end" qualitative statement from institutional research so far in 2026— the last similar clear statement came from the same team at Standard Chartered in December 2023, after which Bitcoin confirmed a breakthrough of historical highs in 2024.Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: $NAKA) (Nashville, a Bitcoin operating company, also operating Bitcoin Magazine) disclosed a series of balance sheet optimization measures through an official press release on BusinessWire on June 11: selling approximately 600 BTC and Bitcoin-related derivatives, netting about $48 million, to repay a $45 million loan to Kraken (Payward Interactive); the remaining loan balance is $165 million USDT (down from the original $210 million), restructured under new terms: $60 million USDT maturing on December 4, 2026, and $105 million USDT extended to June 30, 2027; the new interest rate is reduced to 7.75% (previously 8%), requiring the maintenance of 2,000 BTC as collateral in a Bitwise Asset Management custodial account, saving approximately $4 million in annual financing costs; the board also approved a $25 million stock repurchase plan (as of December 31, 2026). After the transaction, the company holds approximately 4,467 BTC (approximately $284 million, estimated at recent prices); the company previously completed a 1-for-40 reverse stock split at the end of May and received confirmation from Nasdaq on June 9 that it has restored compliance with the minimum $1 share price requirement; after the news was announced, $NAKA briefly rose about 20% during trading.

On-chain capital and prediction market infrastructure project Nova Markets announced the completion of a new round of financing, with participation from Wintermute Ventures, Robot Ventures, Big Brain VC, Cumberland, GSR, Greenfield Capital, Hash3, Bodhi Ventures, and Kairos Research.This round of financing will be used to migrate more perpetual contracts and prediction markets on-chain.Nova stated that the actual number of existing on-chain capital markets is far below the expected level, and the financing will be used to migrate more perpetual contracts and prediction markets on-chain, reshaping the generation and trading structure of related markets.