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Data: The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 44 consecutive days, setting a new record for the longest continuous negative streak, with the latest report at -0.1089%

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in the negative premium range for 44 consecutive days, with the latest value at -0.1089%. This index measures the deviation of the BTC price on Coinbase (a mainstream compliant platform in the U.S.) relative to the global average price. A sustained negative value indicates heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decline in risk appetite, capital outflows, or rising risk aversion.Historical data shows that long-term negative premiums are often accompanied by the exit of institutional funds from the U.S., necessitating caution regarding short-term pullback pressure. Darkfost, an author on the CryptoQuant platform, stated that there is a lag in institutional demand for BTC. The Coinbase premium index is primarily used to assess the demand for Bitcoin among professionals and institutions. By comparing BTC prices on Coinbase Advanced and Binance, you can directly understand the purchasing behavior of these users.Negative data indicates that the amount sold by institutional investors exceeds that of retail investors, while retail investors are mostly active on the Binance platform, and their behavior has led to the decline in the price of the Coinbase premium index. Previously, this index was in negative premium for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, setting the record for the longest "consecutive negative" since the index was launched, surpassing the approximately 30 days of consecutive negative premium during the "1011 crash."

MARA Holdings purchased 1,000 BTC from FalconX, Robinhood's layoffs of over 10% led to a nearly 9% increase against the trend with a record trading volume in June

According to BBX data, the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift yesterday triggered a general decline in cryptocurrency concept stocks, but corporate buybacks and stock differentiation occurred simultaneously. The core dynamics are as follows:MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: $MARA) has purchased 1,000 BTC from the cryptocurrency liquidity platform FalconX (privately held), with a transaction value of approximately $66.7 million (equivalent to an average price of about $66,700 per coin); this purchase occurred during the same time window as the release of the Federal Reserve's hawkish dot plot and Bitcoin's downward pressure on that day. This marks the company's first clearly recorded counter-cyclical buyback action since the large-scale sale of 20,880 BTC in Q1 (resulting in a Q1 net loss of $1.3 billion). As of the last disclosure (March 31), the company's BTC holdings were 35,303 coins; following this additional purchase, the total holdings are expected to rise to approximately 36,303 coins (pending confirmation from the company's official SEC filing). This transaction has not yet been disclosed in a formal press release or 8-K filing from the company, with data sourced from on-chain monitoring, awaiting official confirmation.Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: $HOOD) surged against the trend yesterday, reaching $110.73 during the day and closing at $105.20 (some real-time quotes showed an intraday increase of up to 12%), with a trading volume of 69.77 million shares, about 2.3 times the three-month average. The company announced that it would cut 10% of its full-time employees (resulting in approximately $28 million in restructuring costs, including about $20 million in severance and benefits costs and about $8 million in stock-based compensation costs). CEO Vlad Tenev emphasized that this move "stems from a position of strength rather than financial pressure"; concurrently, it was disclosed that the average daily trading volume in June reached historic highs across stocks, options, and prediction markets, with platform assets reaching $377 billion in May (up 48% year-on-year), and 27.7 million funded customers, with net inflows of $5.6 billion in May. Multiple institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Needham, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Argus, raised their target prices to a range of $95 to $110 on the same day; Reuters also reported that the SEC is preparing to allow cryptocurrency companies to trade tokenized stocks and other products, which is also viewed as a positive by the market.

Analysis: Bitcoin's "silent bear market" continues, recording the worst weekly performance since the FTX collapse

Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last Monday, marking the worst weekly performance since the FTX exchange collapse in 2022. As of last Sunday, Bitcoin had accumulated a 16% decline over the past 7 days, retreating more than 50% from its historical high of over $126,000 in 2025. Several market analysts warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still quite far from the "true bottom."Data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with a total outflow of approximately $5.5 billion. At the same time, Bitcoin fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market as a "silent bear market," believing that falling below the 200-week moving average is an important confirmation signal for the market entering a bear phase.Analysts pointed out that the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reprice the interest rate path, with a high interest rate environment being unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some funds are flowing from the crypto market into artificial intelligence and tech stock sectors. Nevertheless, the current pullback is still less than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retreated about 80% from its peak, while this round has seen a decline of about 50%. Some traders believe that if the macro environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, there remains a risk of further downside in the market.
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