prediction

According to WIRED, Michael Selig, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the agency is using artificial intelligence technology to investigate insider trading in prediction markets such as Polymarket.In the past year, several traders on Polymarket have been suspected of using insider information to bet on geopolitical events such as the Venezuela raid and the Iran war, resulting in significant profits and drawing widespread attention.Previously, a U.S. Special Forces soldier was arrested for allegedly profiting from betting on the Maduro arrest using classified intelligence on Polymarket, becoming the first criminal case of insider trading in a prediction market in the United States.

According to the latest data from Gate's market predictions, the overall market expectation regarding the event of "when will Bitcoin reach $150,000" is relatively cautious. As of June 30, 2026, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 is 1%; by December 31, 2026, this probability rises to 10%. Overall, the market maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards the short to medium-term price increase potential of Bitcoin, and funding expectations have not yet formed a consistent breakthrough judgment.As the first CEX platform to connect to Polymarket, Gate consistently ranks among the top three in the Polymarket collaboration channels, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market. Currently, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participating in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. Gate continues to optimize the prediction market functions and ecosystem, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.

The prediction market platform Kalshi announced a partnership with Interactive Brokers.According to the cooperation details, Interactive Brokers has integrated the Kalshi prediction market into its existing trading platform, allowing users to manage prediction market positions and traditional portfolios on the same interface, and supporting real-time viewing of positions, liquidity, and price data.The initially launched prediction markets will mainly cover topics such as election results, climate events, and economic indicators.

According to The Block, staff from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a no-action letter, substantially exempting prediction market platforms from swap data reporting and recordkeeping requirements.The CFTC's Market Oversight Division and Clearing and Risk Division stated that they would not recommend enforcement actions against designated contract markets (DCMs) and clearinghouses for failing to comply with relevant reporting requirements. This move aims to eliminate regulatory uncertainty for event contract platforms.The no-action letter currently covers 19 beneficiary entities, including Polymarket US, Kalshi, Gemini Titan, and Bitnomial.

According to Cointelegraph, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) submitted an amicus brief to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit in support of Kalshi's appeal in its lawsuit against Ohio, arguing that prediction markets should be under the jurisdiction of the CFTC.The CFTC pointed out that Ohio's previous request for Kalshi to cease offering sports event contracts constitutes "jurisdictional overreach." The CFTC stated that if state governments can restrict sports event contracts traded on designated contract markets (DCM), their long-term regulatory authority over event contracts, swaps, and binary options markets could be affected. The outcome of this case will also impact prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

YZi Labs announced the 25 graduation projects of its flagship incubation project EASY Residency for the third season, focusing on areas such as on-chain financial market structure reconstruction, AI agents, tokenization of real-world assets, prediction markets, and privacy compliance. The 25 projects include:Identity and payment infrastructure for AI agents on the BNB chain Bank of AI, litigation workflow legal evidence indexing tool Brief Tech, AI probability output verifiable reasoning platform Cournot, financialized social network and trading platform Dapital, programmable token issuance infrastructure Flap;On-chain marketplace for collectibles and intellectual property assets GEMINT, on-chain options and structured products platform LayerV, CEX-level on-chain liquidity platform LunarBase, multi-market agent capital acquisition platform L7, DeFi unified margin layer Möbius, permissionless margin trading protocol Nemesis;AI agent-driven automated financial decision execution layer Newsliquid, tokenized private market exposure DeFi platform Openstocks, on-chain poker skill game options market PokerFi, prediction market automation and intelligence infrastructure Polysights, physical collectibles RWA liquidity infrastructure Renaiss;Fixed-rate decentralized lending platform TermMax, compliance-oriented digital asset privacy infrastructure 0xBow, AI agent workflow self-custody authorization layer Functor, interest-free stablecoin new bank for the Muslim market Isaac, on-chain prime brokerage platform for the BNB chain MARGIN X;Frictionless stablecoin exchange N-dimensional AMM Orbswap, compliance-oriented cross-chain privacy exchange protocol SilentSwap, crypto market AI agent trading and automation infrastructure Taco AI, on-chain event-driven derivatives platform Vibe.fun.

Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the regulatory agency is communicating with all major professional sports leagues in the United States to strengthen the regulatory framework for sports-related prediction markets and to prevent insider trading and market manipulation risks.Michael Selig revealed at the FINRA annual meeting in Washington that the CFTC had previously signed a memorandum of understanding for information sharing with Major League Baseball, marking its first formal data collaboration mechanism with a professional sports league.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that the overall market expectation for the "WTI Crude Oil May Price" related prediction event remains strong. Among them, the probability of WTI crude oil prices exceeding $110 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $105 is 67%, and the probability of exceeding $100 is as high as 94%. Overall, the market maintains an optimistic outlook on the short-term trend of oil prices, with funding expectations continuously leaning towards an upward direction.Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel continues to lead, currently securing a spot in the top three, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and engagement depth of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.In addition, Gate will launch the "Polymarket 100 USDT Battle God Challenge" social media event from May 11, 15:00 to May 20, 15:00 (UTC+8), where users can participate in prediction market trading with a maximum of 100 USDT and compete for the earnings leaderboard and quality content creator rewards by sharing profit reports, trading strategies, and review content. The total prize pool of the event includes 66 content reward slots and a 1,000 USDT Battle God earnings prize pool.

The BSC ecosystem's Fortune Protocol has announced the completion of its Seed round financing. This round of financing was participated in by TBV, Cogitent Ventures, X21 Digital, CGV FoF, K24 Ventures, LandScape Capital, and others.Fortune is a new generation Web3 financial protocol focused on building and innovating liquidity infrastructure for prediction markets. The funds raised in this round will be used to accelerate the development of Fortune's AI prediction tools and large-scale prediction models, promoting further development of the protocol in terms of technology, products, and ecosystem.

The digital asset trading platform Gate has announced the completion of a new round of feature upgrades for its prediction market, optimizing multiple modules such as the search system, leaderboard, event classification, and sports gameplay around hot topic discovery, strategy trading, and user interaction efficiency.In this upgrade, Gate has added intelligent search and a "Live & Hot" section, supporting fuzzy keyword matching, hot event recommendations, and real-time hot topic aggregation, helping users discover trading opportunities more efficiently. The platform has also launched a secondary classification system and a "Breaking News" section, covering hot content such as major news, sports events, and cryptocurrency market fluctuations. In the sports prediction market, Gate has introduced derivative gameplay such as point spreads and totals, and optimized the interaction for quick ordering and score selection, further enhancing the trading experience. Additionally, the platform has officially launched a prediction market leaderboard, covering multiple dimensions such as profit and loss, trading volume, and highest profit, strengthening strategy discovery and trading social attributes.Currently, Gate's prediction market has deeply integrated with the Polymarket ecosystem, allowing users to directly access the Polymarket page through the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage and participate in event predictions using USDT in their accounts, further lowering the participation threshold and operational complexity. With a convenient entry point and continuously growing user activity, Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel remains leading, currently ranking in the top three.

According to FOX reporter Charles Gasparino, the U.S. CFTC and SEC are currently in agreement on the regulatory boundaries regarding prediction markets and recent unusual trading related to the Iran conflict.Gasparino pointed out that although outsiders believe this area is solely governed by the CFTC, the SEC will deeply intervene when prediction contracts can legally be defined as "securities." He also revealed that, in addition to the cases previously announced, regulators may initiate more enforcement actions against prediction markets in the future.

Prediction market Kalshi announced a partnership with the sports venue Madison Square Garden, becoming its official prediction market partner. The sixth-floor concourse of Madison Square Garden will officially be renamed Kalshi Concourse, which is primarily used for merchandise sales, dining, and bars.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event related to "What will the price of gold (GC) be by the end of June 2026," the overall market expectation remains relatively strong. Among these, the probability of the gold price exceeding $5,000 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $4,900 is 68%, and the probability of reaching $4,600 is about 80%; meanwhile, the probability of being below $4,500 is 55%. Overall, the market maintains a high level of attention on the medium to long-term trend of gold, with some divergence in capital expectations.Gate's performance in the Polymarket collaboration channel continues to lead, currently ranking in the top two, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the cryptocurrency trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.

Institutional crypto broker FalconX announced a partnership with the prediction market platform Kalshi. This collaboration will provide institutional clients with a channel to participate in event-driven markets through structured derivatives and bulk trading execution, covering various event contracts such as cryptocurrencies, macroeconomics, and global elections.

Vitalik Buterin posted on the X platform, stating, "The quality of prediction markets depends on their oracles," and expressed his happiness to see prediction markets beginning to shift towards decentralized and non-financial oracle solutions.He also mentioned that the next step in development should be to achieve privacy for proof-of-stake voting.

According to information from the Hyperliquid testnet, the platform is testing new event contracts, including a 15-minute cryptocurrency rise and fall market.