prediction

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin November Price Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "72,500 USD" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 64% an hour ago to the current 87% (a fluctuation of 23%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event of the "Bitcoin price prediction from November 9-15" on the Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "below $72,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 49% an hour ago to the current 67.5% (a fluctuation of 18.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Nick Tomaino, a partner at 1confirmation, stated that 1confirmation has participated in all rounds of financing for Polymarket to date and has decided to increase its investment again. Although the fund focuses on seed-stage investments and typically does not participate in later-stage financing, it believes that Polymarket is worth breaking this investment convention.Nick Tomaino mentioned that there has been a demand for prediction markets for over a century, as users wish to place bets on events in politics, culture, and more. In the age of AI, one of the biggest challenges faced by young people is discerning the truth of information, and prediction markets can transform users' trading and investment enthusiasm into more accurate information.He emphasized that the long-term value of Polymarket is not just in sports betting, but in providing a more effective information discovery mechanism for political, geopolitical, and cultural events. Currently, while the U.S. market is primarily focused on sports trading, the accuracy of information is what gives prediction markets their more enduring value.Additionally, he believes that Polymarket's business is continuously upgrading, with the current management team performing excellently, and the products in the U.S. market are at an industry-leading level, with revenue consistently reaching new highs. Regarding the token program, he stated that while he did not fully agree with some of the related promotional methods previously, it is unreasonable to assert that the token program has lost its potential.Finally, Nick Tomaino stated that Polymarket founder Shayne has a strong desire for success and is one of the most direct and transparent people he knows.

According to a ruling by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the operator of the sports prediction market Novig, Ludlow Exchange, had its application to block a preliminary injunction regarding the applicability of betting laws in New York State denied.The court determined at the preliminary injunction stage that Novig's sports event contracts do not fall under the definition of swap contracts as defined by the Commodity Exchange Act, allowing New York State to require it to obtain a state betting license or prohibit the relevant contracts from being listed and traded in its market. The ruling document shows that Novig was designated as a contract market by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in June 2026 and began offering sports event contracts to New York customers in August.

The Vice President of Engineering at the prediction market platform Polymarket, Josh Stevens, announced that the platform has launched a withdrawal address whitelist feature. Users can lock the withdrawal address of their deposit wallet, and adding a new address requires email verification and setting a 48-hour time lock. Operations not performed by the user can be canceled via email.Stevens stated that even if a session is compromised or a malicious transaction is mistakenly signed, funds cannot be transferred to an uncontrolled address. This feature can be enabled in "Settings - Account," and Passkey support will be launched soon. The team is developing a migration tool for non-deposit wallets and will introduce advanced built-in security protections that do not require manual activation.

Warren's committee assistant stated that she plans to focus on predicting market regulation and the Trump family's cryptocurrency business after taking charge of the Senate Banking Committee in January next year.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction on November 9" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the submarket "Above $76,000" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 65% an hour ago to the current 23.5% (a fluctuation of 41.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to The Block, the prediction market broker River Markets stated that its affiliate River Finance LLC has registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States and has joined the National Futures Association (NFA), allowing it to hold customer accounts and manage customer funds.River Markets is building a primary brokerage platform for prediction markets aimed at institutional traders, planning to enable clients to manage funds, positions, and risks across multiple exchanges and clearinghouses through a single account, and to support financing arrangements and approved over-the-counter trading.The company was established in May of this year and claims to have transferred over 250 million contracts for clients such as hedge funds and proprietary trading firms, having previously completed a $8.5 million seed round of financing.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction from November 2-8" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Above $76,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 10% an hour ago to the current 44% (a fluctuation of 34%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction for November 2-8" on Polymarket, the "is" option in the sub-market "below $74,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 51.6% an hour ago to the current 35.95% (a fluctuation of 15.65%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Wall Street market maker and quantitative trading giant Hudson River Trading (HRT) has begun trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi, becoming one of the institutional trading firms to enter the prediction market after Jump Trading and Susquehanna International Group.Insiders revealed that HRT started trading on Kalshi about a month ago, with the relevant business managed by its futures team, primarily participating in the platform's "Up-Down Markets," which are contracts that settle based on the price increase or decrease of an asset over a short period. Currently, it has not ventured into sports and other non-financial event contracts. Additionally, HRT is also one of the participants in Kalshi's latest round of $1 billion financing, which values Kalshi at $40 billion.

According to BeInCrypto, Tarek Mansour, the CEO of the prediction market platform Kalshi, stated in an interview with CNBC that he supports the establishment of strict rules to prohibit members of Congress, government officials, and others from trading on prediction markets that they can influence.Mansour mentioned that Kalshi has been managing insider trading since its establishment in 2018. His remarks come as U.S. lawmakers discuss restrictions on prediction markets, with Democratic lawmakers Jeff Merkley and Jamie Raskin previously proposing legislation to ban event contracts involving elections, sports, military actions, and most government activities.

According to a post by Alon (@a1lon9), co-founder of Pumpfun, the development company behind Pumpfun, Baton Corporation, is hiring for three business development (BD) positions: perpetual contract BD, prediction market BD, and trading terminal BD.Alon stated that to expand the social network of the Pumpfun application, it is necessary to attract excellent traders from various markets, including on-chain speculative trading, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets. Applicants must have at least 2 years of experience leading BD at a crypto platform and have significant business results. The positions are preferred to be based in New York, but exceptionally qualified candidates may be considered for remote work.

According to Decrypt, Hollywood film companies and production companies are issuing guidelines prohibiting employees from using insider information to bet on prediction markets. The regulations prohibit employees from betting on events such as film company earnings reports, casting decisions, and release dates, and also prohibit sharing information with friends and family for them to place bets. At least one company has set up an anonymous hotline for employees to report colleagues suspected of betting.Penske Media, the parent company of The Hollywood Reporter, updated its employee handbook in recent weeks to prohibit betting on award nominations, casting decisions, production schedules, and release dates. Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University who studies prediction markets, stated that many employers now have to consider insider trading rules from an ethical perspective, but enforcing these rules can be difficult, as transactions based on blockchain may be "virtually untraceable" if insiders use mixers and hide their identities layer by layer.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2026" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Below $70,000" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 35.5% an hour ago to the current 51% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to the insider trading policy document submitted by Apple, the company prohibits individuals bound by this policy from using confidential information obtained in the course of their work at Apple or other companies to bet, trade, or buy and sell event contracts on prediction markets or similar platforms.The policy also prohibits disclosing relevant confidential information to individuals who may participate in such markets, regardless of whether the relevant actions constitute insider trading or securities trading under applicable law; the ban applies in all cases. The policy covers Apple directors, executives, employees, independent contractors, and consultants, and the document indicates that the policy was updated in October 2026.

The prediction market revenue protocol Robin Markets announced the shutdown of V1. The team stated that the initial version of the revenue product did not achieve the expected adoption and will be gradually phased out to allow for the re-launch of an improved version. The points program, revenue guarantees, and matching rewards will cease along with V1; these mechanisms were originally intended to incentivize liquidity but did not perform as expected. Existing products will continue to operate until the new version is launched by the end of this year.The team outlined two main issues. The first is position matching: V1 needs to match opposing YES and NO positions within each market's liquidity pool to combine funds into USDC for use, and the efficiency of funds depends on whether the distribution on both sides is relatively balanced. This creates a first-mover disadvantage, as tokens deposited early often remain idle before a counterparty appears, resulting in thin liquidity pools, and early users frequently cannot earn returns. The second issue is changes in the revenue environment: at the project's launch, the yield on USDC.e on Polygon was still considerable, and there was a partnership with Yearn; after October 10, more yield channels on Polygon shrank or lost competitiveness, weakening the original sources of revenue and placing greater pressure on subsidy guarantees. The team stated that insufficient matching and weakening revenue mutually influence each other, hindering the product's actual operation.Robin Markets positions itself as the capital efficiency layer of the prediction market, allowing users to stake Polymarket outcome tokens on Polygon while earning returns without losing their original market exposure. Public information shows that the project previously completed a $475,000 angel round of financing, with investors including Fabric VC, Animoca Brands, ATKA Incubator, John Lilic, Stefan D. George, and angel investors from Hilbert Capital, LayerZero, and others. The team stated that the next version will directly address the issues of matching mechanisms and revenue sources.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the probability of the option "Yes" in the event "Republican Victory Prediction in Senate Swing States" on the prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 32.5% an hour ago to the current 48.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Gemini has now launched new prediction markets for Zcash and Hyperliquid.

Live prediction market CRSHMARKET announced the completion of a $3.5 million seed round financing, led by 6th Man Ventures, with participation from Reciprocal Ventures, Lattice Fund, and Starting Line. The project stated that the funds will be used to build a live prediction market, allowing users to predict the outcomes of live content and settle within 60 seconds.CRSHMARKET officially introduces its product supported by Monad, headquartered in New York, with co-founders including Evan Rama, Param Patel, and Lucas Pichette. The project previously disclosed that, approximately four months after launch, the trading volume exceeded $10 million, the number of users surpassed 50,000, and over 550,000 transactions had been processed, having also completed over $1 million in financing.