fluctuation

According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sector showed mixed results, with the DeFi sector performing prominently, rising by 1.04%. Among them, Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose by 1.74%, and Chainlink (LINK) rose by 2.42%. The Meme sector increased by 0.7% in 24 hours, with Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) rising by 9.04% and Pump.fun (PUMP) rising by 8.76%.In other sectors, the PayFi sector rose by 0.4%, with eCash (XEC) increasing by 1.56%. The Layer1 sector rose by 0.2%, with Cosmos Hub (ATOM) increasing by 8.71%. Additionally, the CeFi sector fell by 0.07%, but Cronos (CRO) remained relatively strong, rising by 1.07%. The Layer2 sector decreased by 0.97%, while Optimism (OP) rose by 4.11%. The cryptocurrency sector index reflecting historical market trends shows that the ssiAI, ssiDeFi, and ssiMeme indices rose by 1.93%, 1.29%, and 1.28%, respectively.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's current volatility has compressed to very low levels, and the market has not yet formed a clear direction. The Bollinger Band width is currently around 3.8% to 3.9%, one of the lowest levels in the past two years, while it was still at double-digit levels at the beginning of July. He pointed out that a significant narrowing of the Bollinger Bands usually indicates that the market is entering a compression phase before volatility expansion, but this indicator alone cannot determine the direction of the next market trend.In terms of trend strength, the Bitcoin ADX indicator has currently dropped to 11, close to recent lows, and is significantly below the 25 threshold used by its model to confirm trends. Currently, TrendActive has not yet been activated, and neither bullish nor bearish signals have appeared; the last directional signal at the beginning of July was bearish, but the current market structure no longer confirms this signal. Adler stated that for the market to enter a new trend phase, the Bollinger Band width needs to expand again from the current compressed state, while the ADX breaks above 25. Subsequently, the direction can be judged based on the relationship between +DI and -DI: if one side leads by more than 5 points, it may trigger the corresponding bullish or bearish signal. He believes that Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase, with both volatility and trend strength at low levels, and the risk of a false breakout in the short term still exists. The current structure increases the possibility of significant volatility expansion in the future, but it is still unclear whether the price will ultimately break upwards or downwards.

Regarding the abnormal and severe fluctuations in the perpetual contract market for TUT (TUTUSDT), Lobster (LobsterUSDT), and BICO (BICOUSDT) on August 9, 2026, Gate has promptly initiated a special review and risk control investigation. To protect users' legitimate rights and interests, Gate will provide full USDT compensation to affected users who meet the compensation criteria. The platform has opened a special processing channel, and affected users can contact Gate through official channels such as VIP account managers and online customer service. The platform will assist in implementing the compensation plan within three working days and will distribute the compensation amount to users' spot accounts.Gate stated that user rights are always the core focus of the platform, and it will continue to strengthen the identification of abnormal trading, risk control in low liquidity markets, dynamic management of risk parameters, and the construction of pricing and settlement mechanisms, further enhancing the platform's risk prevention capabilities and market governance level. Gate is committed to creating a fair, transparent, and secure trading environment, continuously listening to user feedback, and working with the community to maintain a healthy and stable market ecosystem.

Renowned trader Killa expressed his technical analysis on Bitcoin, stating that if Bitcoin falls below the current weekly high (65,300 USD), it will retrace to test the monthly opening price of around 62,700 USD. However, if it can strongly break through and stay above the resistance level of 65,300 USD, it may further rise to around 66,900 USD.Overall, the judgment is that the market has been in a consolidation range for the past two months, with no obvious breakout signals. Killa, as a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at 74,688 USD and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's implied volatility on the 30th fell to a long-term support level of 36%, with the price maintaining a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, reminded that a low-volatility environment will lower trading costs, thereby encouraging traders to establish large directional bets and hedge positions; once the market breaks through key price levels, the passive hedging behavior of market makers will amplify market fluctuations, driving a mean-reversion rebound in volatility.On the market sentiment front, Paul-Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, stated that the current demand for put options has significantly cooled, but there is also a lack of buying interest for call options. Glassnode summarized this state as "there is neither capital to buy into the rise nor capital to buy into the fall," believing that this phenomenon often represents the market nearing a cyclical bottom. The divergence in the trends of Dogecoin and Bitcoin also indirectly reflects the continued low speculative sentiment.Howard believes that favorable regulatory advances like the Clarity Act, which drive institutional ETF capital inflows, may become an important catalyst for the next round of market movements; while the failure of negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz and inflation exceeding expectations pose major downside risks.

According to Jinshi reports, the US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell by 0.02% on August 4, closing at 99.894 in the foreign exchange market. 1 euro exchanged for 1.1514 US dollars, down from 1.1531 US dollars the previous trading day; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3431 US dollars, down from 1.3482 US dollars the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 156.74 Japanese yen, down from 158.9 Japanese yen the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8101 Swiss francs, up from 0.8082 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.4045 Canadian dollars, up from 1.4019 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.5557 Swedish kronor, up from 9.5193 Swedish kronor the previous trading day.

According to Daum, the South Korean stock market has recently experienced increased volatility, with investors' risk appetite significantly cooling, and funds are flowing back from the stock market to safer assets such as banks. Due to adjustments in the semiconductor sector and stricter regulations on leveraged investments, the funds waiting to be invested in the South Korean stock market are rapidly withdrawing, leading to a phenomenon of "reverse capital migration."Data shows that by the end of July, the balance of time deposits at the five major banks in South Korea (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, NH Nonghyup) reached 973.49 trillion won, an increase of 24.09 trillion won compared to the end of the previous month, marking the largest monthly increase this year.There has also been a noticeable contraction in funds around the stock market. Data from the Korea Financial Investment Association shows that the deposits in investors' securities accounts (funds waiting to be invested in stock trading) reached a historical high of 139.69 trillion won on June 4, but had fallen to 107.20 trillion won by July 28, a decrease of over 32 trillion won in less than two months. The balance of credit trading financing, which represents the scale of market financing transactions, also dropped to 33.19 trillion won during the same period, down approximately 4.5 trillion won from the peak of 37.72 trillion won recorded on July 2, a decrease of about 12%.

According to Jinshi, this week the US stock market experienced rare fluctuations. Have those most eager to sell already sold out? The liquidation actions of star funds have triggered a rebound in AI stocks, and investors need to pay attention to the best judgment timing for next week's opening.

In response to the abnormal volatility in the SK hynix perpetual contract market, Hyperliquid stated that the platform is an unlicensed blockchain, and the HIP-3 market can be independently deployed and operated by different teams. The xyz:SKHYNIX perpetual contract is deployed and operated by the Trade.xyz team, which is currently investigating the incident and will announce progress after reaching a conclusion.Hyperliquid also explained that HIP-3 deployers can independently push the market's mark price, oracle price, and external perpetual price inputs. If a pricing mechanism similar to that used by platform validators for operating perpetual contracts is adopted, the protocol only provides one of the three median components, namely the on-chain latest transaction price, the best buy price, and the best sell price median, while the other two components are provided by the deployer, who jointly determines the final mark price.

Lighter tweeted that a trading bot malfunctioned on July 25, briefly affecting the HYPE and ZEC markets. During the incident, the HYPE price reached $60.96 and $56.31 within half a minute, while the external trading price was around $58 at the same time, and then the price recovered within a minute. There were no forced liquidations across the market, and losses were limited to the accounts that triggered the issue.The bot was launched with $500,000 in funds and traded $27 million back and forth on HYPE within 5 minutes, accounting for 74.2% of the market trading volume; it generated $220.8 million in order volume on ZEC, accounting for 86.7%, causing the ZEC price to briefly rise to $521. Lighter stated that the risk engine marked positions with fair prices to resist manipulation and rejected 801 orders when margin was insufficient. Ultimately, the bot incurred a loss of about $482,000, all from its own funds. Lighter's liquidity pool (LLP) earned about $143,000, and 40 independent accounts each made over $1,000 in profit.

As the trading heat of the gold market continues to rise, the activity in the related derivatives market has further increased. According to CoinGlass data, the total open interest for gold (XAU) contracts across the network reached 880 million USD, with the Gate platform's open interest at approximately 238 million USD, ranking second among global exchanges. Meanwhile, the total open interest for Tether Gold (XAUT) contracts across the network reached 528 million USD, with the Gate platform's open interest at approximately 118 million USD, ranking third among global exchanges.

On July 13, according to WEEX TradFi data, the three major U.S. stock indices slightly rose last Friday, oil prices remained strong, and precious metals were generally weak. The market will focus this week on the U.S. June CPI, bank earnings reports, developments in the U.S.-Iran situation, and related dynamics from the Federal Reserve.Key events include: the release of the U.S. June CPI on Tuesday, where core inflation data may impact expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while major banks like JPMorgan will successively disclose their earnings reports; on Thursday, TSMC will announce its latest performance, and AI computing power-related guidance may continue to influence sentiment in the semiconductor sector. WEEX Labs believes that the CPI data and corporate earnings reports will jointly affect the market's pricing of inflation stickiness and AI capital expenditures. Funds may continue to rotate around interest rate-sensitive assets and the AI infrastructure sector. Investors need to pay attention to macro data and the outcomes of events and participate in the market rationally.

According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sectors showed mixed results, with the NFT sector rising 4.50% in 24 hours, among which, Audiera (BEAT) rose 15.29%; the AI sector rose 0.84%, and Billions Network (BILL) rose 24.00%.Other notable sectors include: the CeFi sector rose 0.19%, with Cronos (CRO) rising 0.48%; the Layer1 sector rose 0.03%, with Zcash (ZEC) rising 4.02%; the DeFi sector rose 0.42%, among which DeXe (DEXE) rose 26.88%.In other sectors, the PayFi sector fell 0.59%, but eCash (XEC) rose 10.64%; the Meme sector fell 0.61%, while Pump.fun (PUMP) rose 6.57% against the trend; the Layer2 sector fell 0.94%, with Stacks (STX) falling 4.54%; the SocialFi sector fell 1.98%, with Chiliz (CHZ) falling 2.91%.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market trends show that the ssiAI, ssiCeFi, and ssiLayer1 indices rose 1.52%, 0.57%, and 0.54% respectively.

Last weekend's unexpected cold non-farm data reversed the consecutive decline of gold and silver over the past few weeks. On July 6, after a rebound in gold prices, a high-level narrow fluctuation market emerged. According to data from the Gate platform, gold (XAU) is currently priced at $4165.04, with a 24-hour decline of 0.26%; silver (XAG) is currently priced at $61.94, with a 24-hour decline of 1.13%. In the correction market, trading of gold and silver-related contracts is active. Data from the CoinGlass platform shows that the Gate XAU contract has a position amount of $155 million, ranking among the top two in the industry, with a 24-hour trading volume of $47.5522 million; the Gate XAG contract has a position amount of $60.9402 million, also ranking among the top two in the industry, with a 24-hour trading volume of $30.6943 million.

According to The New York Times, informed sources revealed that due to the recent significant drop in stock prices following the SpaceX IPO and the overall sluggishness of the tech stock market, OpenAI is inclined to postpone its public listing plan from later this year to 2027.It is reported that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman insists on seeking a listing valuation of up to $1 trillion and has rejected advisors' suggestions to "accept a lower valuation to expedite the listing process." Earlier, OpenAI had secretly submitted IPO application documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) earlier this month, but did not specify a concrete timeline. Currently, OpenAI's latest valuation is $852 billion, with revenue of approximately $13 billion last year and a net loss of $21 billion.

According to CoinDesk, JPMorgan's latest report indicates that as more miners operate close to breakeven, the Bitcoin mining network is showing a higher sensitivity to price changes, with the response of hash rate and mining difficulty to price fluctuations significantly enhanced. The analysis shows that the "elasticity coefficient" of mining difficulty relative to Bitcoin price changes has risen to 0.62 over the past six months, indicating that the hash rate is responding more quickly to market changes.Analysts state that Bitcoin prices have been below production costs for five consecutive months, with approximately 20% of miners currently in a loss-making position. Under profit pressure, publicly listed mining companies have increased their Bitcoin selling scale, with sales exceeding 32,000 BTC in the first quarter alone, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2025. As some high-cost mining machines shut down, the network hash rate declines, and mining difficulty adjusts accordingly.JPMorgan expects that as long as Bitcoin remains below the production cost of about $78,000, the high sensitivity of mining to price fluctuations will continue to exist. At the same time, some mining companies are turning to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing businesses to seek more stable sources of income.

The Federal Reserve has released a hawkish signal, putting pressure on gold prices to decline. According to CoinGlass data, gold (XAUT) is currently priced at $4280.41, down 0.62% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT across the network reached $293 million, with the Gate platform performing particularly well, recording a 24-hour trading volume of $26.6557 million for its XAUT/USDT trading pair, and a 7-day trading volume exceeding $131 million, both ranking in the top two globally. In addition, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT contracts across the network reached $1.138 billion, with the Gate platform's position size around $11.9 million, ranking third among global exchanges.

According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sector shows mixed performance, with the DeFi sector performing exceptionally well, rising 7.29% in 24 hours. Among them, LAB (LAB) increased by 37.97%, Block Street (BSB) and Uniswap (UNI) rose by 31.18% and 10.72% respectively, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) increased by 10.38%, briefly breaking through $76 during the day, setting a new historical high.Other standout sectors include: the AI sector rose 4.42% in 24 hours, with Worldcoin (WLD) increasing by 19.58%; the RWA sector rose 2.16%, with Centrifuge (CFG) increasing by 11.21%; the Meme sector rose 1.26%, with SPX6900 (SPX) increasing by 16.72%.In other sectors, the Layer2 sector fell by 0.13%, but Celestia (TIA) rose by 9.74%; the Layer1 sector fell by 0.18%, with Cosmos Hub (ATOM) remaining relatively strong, rising by 3.43%; the PayFi sector fell by 0.64%, while Stellar (XLM) rose against the trend by 4.88%; the CeFi sector fell by 1.43%, with Aster (ASTER) increasing by 2.80% during the day; the NFT sector has fallen for three consecutive days, with a 24-hour decline of 20.83%, within which Audiera (BEAT) fell by 44.03%.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market trends show that the ssiDeFi and ssiMeme indices rose by 6.35% and 1.24% respectively, while the ssiSocialFi index fell by 3.76%.