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Israel implements a comprehensive blockade on the West Bank

Israel will implement a "complete blockade" on the West Bank until next Saturday.

2026-09-27

Catcher Predict: "The United States announces the end of the blockade against Iran" "October 15" Win rate plummets 31%

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "The United States Announces the End of the Iran Blockade," the sub-market "October 15" for the "Yes" option has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 49.5% an hour ago to the current 18.5% (a fluctuation of 31%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

2026-09-24

prediction market

volatility analysis

The "Rashomon" of US-Iran negotiations: If the blockade is lifted, will the Strait of Hormuz reopen within 7 days?

WTI crude oil fell below 90 USD per barrel, with an intraday decline reaching 2.9%. According to reports, an Iranian official stated that if the United States takes preliminary measures to ease military pressure, including ending the military blockade of Iranian ports and stopping military actions related to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days. However, Iranian sources later denied reports regarding the reopening agreement of the Strait of Hormuz.

2026-09-22

US-Iran Negotiations

Strait of Hormuz

United Nations General Assembly

Diplomatic Channels

The "Rashomon" of US-Iran negotiations: If the blockade is lifted, will the Strait of Hormuz reopen within 7 days?

Iran proposed to lift the blockade conditions and open the Strait of Hormuz

According to a report by the Japan Cooperative Press, a senior Iranian official revealed that Iran has informed the Trump administration that if the United States accepts Iran's demands to lift the military blockade on Iranian ports, Iran will open the blocked Strait of Hormuz "within seven days."

2026-09-22

military blockade

The U.S. military is implementing a maritime blockade against Iran to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open

The U.S. Central Command stated that 50,000 stationed U.S. troops are executing a maritime blockade against Iran, and the U.S. military is ensuring the free passage of commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

2026-08-28

Maritime Blockade

Strait of Hormuz

United States Army

Iranian officials: The U.S. Navy blockade affects fuel imports

According to reports from Saudi Arabian television, a senior Iranian official stated that Iran is unable to import enough fuel to compensate for domestic production shortfalls due to the blockade by the U.S. Navy.

2026-08-27

Industry Trends

United States Navy

Catcher Predict: "The United States announces the end of the blockade on Iran" "September 14" Win rate soars to 19.5%

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket for the event "The United States announces the end of the blockade on Iran," the sub-market "September 14" saw the probability of the "Yes" option fluctuate dramatically, soaring from 22.5% an hour ago to the current 42% (a fluctuation of 19.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

2026-08-26

prediction market

Volatility Analysis

Former U.S. officials: The UAE's embargo on Iran may be more severe than the U.S. maritime blockade

The UAE has announced the suspension of all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran, with the resumption time to be notified later. Retired U.S. Army Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt stated that the UAE's importance to the Iranian economy may make this embargo more impactful than the U.S. maritime blockade.The UAE is Iran's largest source of imports, with about one-third of imported goods needing to be transshipped through Dubai.

2026-08-19

United Arab Emirates

Catcher Predict: "The U.S. announces the end date of the Iran blockade" option "December 31" currently ranks first in probability

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the event "The United States Announces the End Date of the Iran Blockade" is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching 880 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "December 31," corresponding to a winning probability of about 84%.

2026-08-10

prediction market

Catcher Predict: "The U.S. announces the end of Iran's blockade" "August 8" Win rate plummets by 36.5%

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "The U.S. announces the end of the blockade on Iran" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "August 8" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 49.5% an hour ago to the current 13% (a fluctuation of 36.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

2026-08-07

prediction market

Catcher Predict: "The United States announces the end of the blockade on Iran" "August 7" Winning rate soars to 15.45%

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market for the event "The United States Announces the End of the Iran Blockade," the sub-market "August 7" saw the probability of the "Yes" option fluctuate dramatically, soaring from 27.5% an hour ago to the current 42.95% (a fluctuation of 15.45%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

2026-08-06

prediction market

event volatility

Catcher Predict: "The United States announces the end of the blockade on Iran" "August 7" Winning rate soars to 23.6%

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market for the event "The U.S. announces the end of the blockade on Iran," the sub-market "August 7" saw a dramatic fluctuation in the probability of the "Yes" option, soaring from 38.2% an hour ago to the current 61.8% (a fluctuation of 23.6%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

2026-08-05

prediction market

Catcher Predict: "The United States announces the end of the blockade on Iran" "August 7" Win rate soars to 19.05%

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket for the event "The U.S. announces the end of the blockade on Iran," the sub-market "August 7" saw the probability of the "Yes" option fluctuate dramatically, soaring from 35.35% an hour ago to the current 54.4% (a fluctuation of 19.05%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

2026-08-04

prediction market

event volatility

The U.S. military continues to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, changing the sailing routes of 44 merchant ships

According to Jinshi reports, on August 3 local time, the U.S. Central Command stated that the U.S. military continues to strictly enforce the maritime blockade against Iran. As of that day, the U.S. military has altered the navigation routes of 44 commercial vessels, rendered 2 vessels incapacitated, and boarded and inspected 2 vessels.

2026-08-04

Maritime Blockade

United States Central Command

The U.S. Marine Corps F-35C fighter jet took off from the "Abraham Lincoln" to support blockade operations

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Central Command stated that a U.S. Marine Corps F-35C stealth fighter jet took off from the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), which is sailing in the Arabian Sea to support the U.S. blockade operations against Iran. As of August 2, the Central Command has redirected 35 merchant vessels, rendered 2 merchant vessels inoperable, and boarded 2 vessels for inspection.

2026-08-02

Middle East Command

United States Navy

Blockade Action

Yemen's Houthi forces: Will continue to implement blockade actions against Saudi Arabia

According to Jinshi reports, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces stated that they will continue their blockade operations against Saudi Arabia, and as long as conditions permit, the armed forces will intercept their ships wherever possible.

2026-08-01

Blockade Action

Attacks in the Black Sea region of Russia may lead to a complete blockade of grain export routes

According to Jinshi reports, the Russian Grain Exporters and Producers Union stated that attacks in the Black Sea region could lead to a complete blockade of export routes in the near future.

2026-07-31

The United States and Israel discuss a land blockade plan against Iran

According to Jinshi, the United States and Israel are discussing the possibility of implementing a land blockade against Iran. Trump and Netanyahu are exploring various options to increase economic pressure on Iran, and this plan is one of them.

2026-07-31

economic pressure

The U.S. military has imposed a blockade on Iran, causing 20 merchant ships to change their routes

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Central Command stated that the U.S. military has redirected 20 merchant ships, rendered 2 merchant ships incapacitated, and conducted boarding inspections on 2 merchant ships during the blockade operations against Iran.

2026-07-30

Blockade Operation

Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Inflation slowdown boosts market risk appetite, AI sector rebounds across the board; Trump cancels the Strait transit fee, the U.S. resumes port blockade against Iran

Bitget UEX Daily Report

2026-07-15

Federal Reserve

U.S. stock market

Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Inflation slowdown boosts market risk appetite, AI sector rebounds across the board; Trump cancels the Strait transit fee, the U.S. resumes port blockade against Iran

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