bitcoin

Real Vision's Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts stated that Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of this bear market. Although the bear market has not ended, the downward momentum has begun to weaken. The current BTC price has fallen about 50% from the historical high of $126,100 set in October 2025. Coutts referred to the current trend as a "typical bear market" and pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility has decreased by about 50% compared to the previous cycle, which suggests that this decline may not be as severe as the previous bear market. However, he cautioned that all current trend indicators are still clearly bearish, and the market will not mechanically replicate historical cycles.He noted that longer-term momentum indicators are beginning to show bullish divergence, indicating that negative momentum is slowing down, but this does not mean that Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market. In addition to the tightening of global liquidity, the deterioration of on-chain demand has also been a significant reason for Bitcoin's decline. Regarding long-term price predictions, Coutts is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. He prefers to predict that BTC will rise to between $200,000 and $250,000 in the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to more clearly address the potential threat of quantum computing before 2027, as significant protocol upgrades may take about five years.

Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn posted on the X platform revealing that there has been a significant development in the case of abandoned bitcoins, where "Noah Doe" is attempting to obtain ownership of Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins through legal proceedings. The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) has officially applied to intervene in the case as a defendant and seeks to push the court to dismiss all lawsuits.It is reported that BPI, represented by the law firm White & Case, has not only applied to intervene in the case but has also submitted a proposed defense document, 15 active defenses, and plans to file a motion to dismiss.Alex Thorn disclosed that BPI claims it is qualified to intervene because the organization has long self-custodied a portion of its bitcoin reserves intended for indefinite holding. The plaintiff's theory that "long-term inactivity constitutes abandonment" could potentially include similar assets in future lawsuits. If the legal logic of this case is ultimately supported by the court, it may set a precedent for depriving long-term self-custody users of asset ownership, making this lawsuit not only related to Satoshi Nakamoto's assets but also concerning the legal foundation of the entire bitcoin self-custody ecosystem.

According to PR Newswire, the US-listed Bitcoin treasury and AI data center company Hyperscale Data has disclosed that it has recently increased its BTC holdings again, and as of now, its Bitcoin reserves have surpassed 1,000 coins.The company's management revealed that it plans to use Bitcoin as a potential collateral for financing in the future, and to achieve balance sheet diversification alongside cash and other strategic assets.

Analyst Darkfost pointed out that since October 2025, the total market value of global Bitcoin treasury companies has shrunk from $396 billion to $272 billion, evaporating over $100 billion. During the same period, the total amount of Bitcoin held by these companies increased from 953,000 to 1.14 million—this decline in market value is entirely driven by the drop in coin price, rather than selling off.However, it is worth noting that since Bitcoin entered a significantly undervalued range in May of this year, the pace of accumulation has sharply slowed, nearly coming to a standstill. The most intensive buying period for these companies was concentrated between November 2024 and October 2025, with the holdings tripling in less than a year, and the buying price range was approximately $75,000 to $125,000—right in the historical high price range of Bitcoin.The current question is: since these companies have built up significant positions in the top range, will they sell at lower levels? Strategy has recently taken the lead in selling Bitcoin; will this behavior be emulated by other treasury companies, becoming a new source of selling pressure in the market? With the current total holding of 1.14 million coins, if more companies are forced to reduce their positions in a sluggish market to alleviate financial pressure, it could pose additional downside risks to Bitcoin prices.

According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time July 10) the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $90.44 million.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow yesterday was Blackrock ETF IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of $86.82 million. Currently, the historical total net inflow of IBIT has reached $60.286 billion.Next was VanEck ETF HODL, with a single-day net inflow of $3.6128 million. Currently, the historical total net inflow of HODL has reached $1.136 billion.As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $77.422 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value compared to the total market value of Bitcoin) is 6.05%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached $51.277 billion.

According to The Block, Standard Chartered stated that it maintains its price prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026. The recent market decline triggered by movements related to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is not due to a deterioration of the company's balance sheet, but rather a failure of the strategic adjustments to be fully understood by the market.Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, pointed out in a report that Strategy's recent behavior is disrupting short-term market expectations for Bitcoin. The market had previously accepted the narrative of the company "never selling Bitcoin," but now Strategy seems to be shifting towards a more complex capital operation model. Whether this change can be clearly communicated will determine when market pressure eases.Currently, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoins, accounting for over 4% of the total supply of 21 million Bitcoins. Between 2020 and mid-2025, Strategy's mNAV (market value/Bitcoin asset value) has remained above 1, allowing the company to finance Bitcoin purchases through stock issuance and achieve shareholder value growth.The commitment to "never sell Bitcoin" is the core of this model gaining market recognition. However, as the current mNAV approaches 1, the leverage effect of this financing model is weakening. Kendrick believes that Strategy is transitioning from a "Bitcoin accumulation tool" to a "Bitcoin credit support tool," meaning it holds Bitcoin as the credit basis for its perpetual preferred stock STRC.STRC currently has a scale of about $10 billion, making it the largest financial instrument launched by Strategy, with an annualized dividend yield of 12%, paid in cash every half month, and its price maintained around the $100 par value through an interest rate adjustment mechanism. Standard Chartered stated that STRC is currently trading at about $90, while Strategy has a dollar reserve of about $2.55 billion for paying dividends, which can cover approximately 17.4 months of dividend expenses.Kendrick stated that the policy adjustment allowing the sale of Bitcoin does not necessarily mean the company will continue to sell. He believes that as long as the market believes the new capital structure arrangement can stabilize the STRC price, Strategy may not actually need to sell Bitcoin. He likened this mechanism to a central bank's commitment to "take action no matter what": restoring market confidence alone may mean that actual intervention might not occur at all.

According to BTCtreasuries, Hong Kong-listed company Boyaa Interactive announced that the company has purchased an additional 108 BTC.After this increase, Boyaa Interactive's total Bitcoin holdings have risen to 4,201 BTC.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Bitcoin mining company BitFuFu (Nasdaq: FUFU) announced its operational data for June 2026, reporting a total of 125 BTC mined that month, a decrease of 29.4% compared to May, with 70 BTC mined using self-owned computing power and 55 BTC mined using cloud computing power.The Bitcoin holdings for the month were 1,671 BTC, a decrease of 184 BTC compared to May, primarily reflecting the net impact of customer repayments and advance payments to suppliers.

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin mining company TeraWulf plans to raise approximately $3.5 billion, led by Morgan Stanley, to expand its Justified Data data center campus located in Hawesville, Kentucky.This financing will include leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, marking TeraWulf's first entry into the leveraged loan market, with plans to launch within this year. TeraWulf has previously signed a 20-year lease with Anthropic, with expected contract revenue of approximately $19 billion during the initial lease term, which also includes two five-year renewal options. The data center is expected to begin preliminary operations in the second half of 2027, with full construction completed by early 2028.

QCP Capital released the latest report stating that Japanese government bond yields have retreated, easing market concerns about the unwinding of yen arbitrage trades and capital inflows, which drove Bitcoin to rebound to around $64,000.

According to CoinDesk, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet is collaborating with the yen stablecoin issuer JPYC and the security token platform Progmat to research digital credit products using Bitcoin as collateral.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "Bitcoin breaking through on July 10" in the prediction market Polymarket, the "yes" option in the submarket "64,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 42.5% an hour ago to the current 65.5% (a fluctuation of 23%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the proportion of unrealized profits in Bitcoin has dropped to 65.8%, below the historical average of 81%, while the proportion of unrealized losses is about 34.2%. The current market is still supported by profitable positions rather than dominated by losses, but the profit proportion continues to decline.Darkfost stated that in past bear markets, the market always reaches a stage where unrealized losses exceed the proportion of profits, and it is currently uncertain whether this cycle will be an exception. This indicator reflects the overall profit and loss situation of market positions and is an important reference for assessing market sentiment and potential selling pressure.

According to Deribit data, approximately $1.907 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire today at 16:00. Among them, the notional value of BTC options is about $1.43 billion, with a put/call ratio of 0.98 and a maximum pain point of $62,000; the notional value of ETH options is about $237 million, with a put/call ratio of 1.21 and a maximum pain point of $1,700.

According to SoSoValue data, the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $95.3017 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow yesterday was the VanEck ETF HODL, with a single-day net inflow of $5.3617 million, and the historical total net inflow of HODL has reached $1.133 billion. The second highest was the Morgan Stanley ETF MSBT, with a single-day net inflow of $2.1737 million, and the historical total net inflow of MSBT has reached $377 million.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net outflow yesterday was the Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a single-day net outflow of $63.2516 million, and the historical total net inflow of FBTC has reached $10.151 billion. As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $76.506 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of Bitcoin's total market value) is 6.03%, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $51.186 billion.

According to BBX data, yesterday the global US stock market and companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange made significant moves in the accumulation of digital asset reserves. The latest updates from two core companies are as follows:GPUS core treasury breaks the 1,000 mark: Artificial intelligence data center company Hyperscale Data, Inc. (NYSE American: $GPUS) officially announced that the number of bitcoins held in its treasury has officially exceeded 1,000. Management stated that the company will continue to closely align with market conditions and existing capital allocation opportunities, supported by its core data center business, to continuously manage and expand its bitcoin reserve scale.Metaplanet raises $137 million through targeted private placement: Metaplanet Inc. (TSE: $3350) announced that it will issue new shares to specific institutional investors through the Third-Party Allotment mechanism under Japanese securities law, aiming to raise approximately $137 million (equivalent to 21.4 billion yen), with all funds to be used for purchasing bitcoin. The company accumulated 2,823 BTC in Q2 this year, and as of June 30, its total holdings have reached 43,000 BTC (valued at approximately $2.67 billion). Based on the current market price of about $62,000 per coin, this lightning private placement is expected to add approximately 2,210 BTC to its reserves, helping it strive towards its ultimate goal of 100,000 BTC by the end of the year.

According to CoinDesk, in just the month of June, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4 billion, led by BlackRock's IBIT, as funds shifted towards opportunities in AI trading and the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin fell about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below $60,000, marking its third consecutive quarter of losses. However, this outflow pales in comparison to the $2 trillion private credit market. Redemption requests in private credit reached $15.6 billion in the second quarter, with 10 out of 16 business development companies exceeding the 5% quarterly cap, and most investors receiving only partial payouts. Fitch expects redemptions to continue in the coming months, and unmet requests will keep several companies under pressure.Bitcoin ETFs have strong liquidity, and outflows directly impact BTC prices; in contrast, private credit BDCs are illiquid long-term instruments. The simultaneous redemptions of both reflect widespread market concerns about liquidity and risk. The energy market is also sending signals of risk aversion, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983. QCP Capital summarized: "Different sectors, same pattern: the market's buffer space is narrowing." It pointed out that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has bottomed out, Strategy has sold BTC for the first time to pay dividends, and private credit redemptions have surpassed thresholds, all indicating that risk assets face a more challenging environment.

The New Hampshire Executive Council voted against a proposal that was originally planned to introduce the world's first municipal bond backed by Bitcoin into the municipal bond market.The bond was intended to be underwritten through a private placement, but it failed to receive approval from the state executive council on Wednesday, preventing the issuing conduit from moving forward with the bond issuance. The proposal by the New Hampshire Business Finance Authority to issue $100 million in taxable municipal bonds was not approved.

On June 29, Strategy raised the annual dividend of STRC to 12% and authorized a $1 billion buyback plan, covering four preferred securities: STRC, STRF, STRD, and STRK, with STRC being the initial preferred buyback target.Strategy disclosed that the buyback funds would not come from its approximately $2.55 billion reserves, but may come from the $1.25 billion Bitcoin monetization plan approved during the same period. STRC traded this week at a high of $80, dipping below $85 on some trading days, below the long-term trading target of $99 to $100 set by Strategy. Peter Schiff stated that the price of STRC below $87 indicates that Wall Street is questioning the growth rate of Bitcoin.