bets

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $96,375 in the "World Cup Champion" event, specifically targeting "France." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 77.1%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket. A large whale invested $62,000 in "Switzerland vs. Canada," specifically targeting "Switzerland." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 62%.

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike have increased, fully absorbing the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $91,700 in the "World Cup Champion" event, specifically targeting "Brazil." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 91.7%.

According to Arkham monitoring, on the eve of SpaceX (SPCX) going live, there is already $276 million in funds betting on its price direction.On the bullish side, one address (0x9cc) is long $33.8 million; another address (0x4e2) is long $6.4 million; another address (0x932, associated with "bd420") is long $4.1 million; another address (0xf47) is long $3.2 million; qianbaidu.eth is long $2.1 million.On the bearish side, one address (0x051, predicted to be Dunamis Trading) is short $7.9 million; another address (0x012, associated with "wenyu888888") is short $6.7 million; another address (0x69c) is short $6.6 million; VBVIT on Poly/HL is short $6.3 million; another address (0x60a) is short $6 million.

According to Jinshi reports, short-term interest rate futures indicate that the market has reduced its bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

A Spanish La Liga football club faces the risk of relegation before the final match of the season. To avoid losses in ticket and broadcasting rights revenue due to relegation, the club's owner placed a bet of millions of dollars on the prediction market Kalshi against their own relegation.In the end, the club lost the last match 0 to 1 but still managed to avoid relegation. Sources revealed that the counterparty of this transaction was the quantitative trading firm Susquehanna, which profited over 1 million dollars from this deal. The transaction was facilitated by Game Point Capital, an agency that assists professional and college teams in managing risks, with intermediary services provided by Greenlight Commodities.

According to Forbes, the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan in Canada is expected to gain substantial returns from the SpaceX IPO. The fund invested approximately $220 million in SpaceX in 2019 when the company's valuation was around $33 billion to $36 billion.If SpaceX goes public as planned at $135 per share, with an estimated valuation of about $1.75 trillion, the shares held by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan would rise to approximately $11.6 billion, with potential paper gains exceeding $11 billion. As of the end of 2025, the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan manages assets of about $279.4 billion, covering 346,000 active and retired teachers.The fund's Chief Investment Officer Gillian Brown previously stated that an IPO does not necessarily mean an exit point, and they may continue to hold shares in the future to see if SpaceX can initiate a new growth cycle after acquiring xAI. Notably, the fund had invested about $95 million in FTX in 2022 and wrote down that investment to zero after FTX's bankruptcy. However, benefiting from strong performances from projects like SpaceX, its venture capital portfolio is still expected to achieve a 30% growth by 2025.Currently, some institutions are cautious about SpaceX's valuation. Morningstar believes its fair valuation is less than half of the IPO target. Based on a $1.75 trillion valuation, Elon Musk's wealth, holding about 41% of the shares, is expected to rise further, potentially making him the world's first trillionaire.

According to CoinDesk, approximately $6.25 billion in Bitcoin options contracts will expire on May 29, with a strike price of $75,000 gathering the largest put position with a notional value of about $394 million, while the $80,000 strike price has the largest call position of about $532 million. The current maximum pain point is at $75,000, which is about 3% lower than the current Bitcoin price of $77,250. Data shows that this expiration involves a total of 80,535 contracts, with 43,184 call options and 37,351 put options, resulting in a Put/Call Ratio of 0.86, indicating that the market overall still leans towards a moderately bullish outlook.It is worth noting that the Bitcoin call option expiring on May 29, 2026, with a strike price of $82,000 became the most actively traded single option product on Thursday, with about 1,600 contracts traded and a notional value of approximately $126 million, indicating that some traders are betting on a breakout for Bitcoin.

According to Forbes, Bitcoin bulls have added a macro narrative. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the $39 trillion debt crisis in the U.S. could lead to a long-term devaluation or even collapse of the dollar, while JPMorgan analysts believe that the market is witnessing a rotation from gold to Bitcoin in the currency devaluation trade.Dalio stated that the current annual spending in the U.S. is about $7 trillion, with revenues of only about $5 trillion, and the long-term fiscal deficit and debt expansion are nearing historically dangerous levels. He believes that during similar periods, fiat currencies tend to depreciate continuously, while gold benefits.Meanwhile, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that as the conflict in Iran escalates, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has continued to exceed that of gold ETFs, with some funds viewing Bitcoin as digital gold and a hedge against dollar devaluation.The report mentioned that since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 30%, although it is still below the historical high of $126,000 in 2025. Notable investors, including Stanley Druckenmiller and Elon Musk, have also expressed concerns about the long-term status of the dollar as a reserve currency.

According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Trump stated that he will investigate the betting behavior of federal employees on event betting platforms, concerned that some may profit in prediction markets using confidential government information.Previously, federal authorities arrested a soldier involved in the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Maduro, who had successfully bet that Maduro would be ousted, earning about $400,000.

According to Jinshi reports, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks stated that he would not oppose the market's bets on two interest rate hikes this year.

Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot trading, rather than a broad recovery in risk appetite.Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions. The options market is also leaning towards caution: short-term implied volatility is sluggish, with one-month volatility lower than three-month volatility, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the market's demand for downside protection is higher than for upside bets, indicating that traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase upward movements. QCP believes this is more of a "bounce" rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite, with gold still near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand remains. Institutions point out that the current market is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and "emotional repair," rather than a core risk being alleviated. Additionally, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, combined with on-chain transaction volumes and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, indicating signs of capital rotating towards high β assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this round of increase.

According to Jinshi reports, after the release of the U.S. March CPI data, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates once this year have increased.

According to the WSJ, just hours after President Trump suddenly announced a suspension of attacks on Iran last month, the White House warned staff not to abuse their power to place bets in prediction markets at the right moment. According to informed sources, the Office of Management and Budget issued this warning on March 23.Earlier that day, Trump announced the decision to suspend airstrikes via Truth Social. About 15 minutes before the sudden policy shift, there was a wave of mysterious trading activity in the futures market, with Dow Jones market data showing that contracts worth over $760 million in oil futures changed hands in less than two minutes.Recently, three accounts on the Polymarket platform profited over $600,000 by accurately predicting the timing of this week's ceasefire in Iran. Critics of Trump, including many Democrats, immediately inferred that someone had profited from having advance knowledge of the policy shift.The White House confirmed the authenticity of this warning, with Trump's spokesperson Engel stating, "The only special interest that can guide President Trump's decision-making is the best interest of the American people."

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 have decreased.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that the company has established an internal venture capital program called "Next Bets," which allows employees to submit innovative projects and pitch directly to product leaders, and can proceed with implementation as long as they receive support. The program opens for proposals twice a year, typically executed by small teams of 2 to 3 people, focusing on high-potential directions.Armstrong mentioned that this mechanism aims to reduce the loss of excellent ideas and talent, inspired by historical cases in the tech industry. It was introduced that the Base blockchain project originated from this program, and more related developments will be announced in the coming weeks.

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates have been withdrawn, and instead, the possibility of interest rate cuts this year is being priced in.