bearish

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market.He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027.Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency depreciation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures.In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%.Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis points increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

According to Jinshi News, JPMorgan stated that investor panic is rapidly escalating, and many clients have turned fully bearish on the stock market. Despite the pessimistic market sentiment, JPMorgan's traders still advise clients to remain calm amid market volatility and not to panic.

Analyst Murphy has released a bearish signal analysis for Bitcoin at a small scale. Currently, the CVD of Binance perpetual contracts has rapidly declined from the April high and has fallen below the 90-day median. This indicates that market bulls are unwilling to continue chasing higher prices, and bears are starting to actively sell short. The spot CVD has also begun to "peak and turn down." Historically, when this indicator turns, prices often follow with a correction, similar to November 2024 and April 2025. However, the key difference in the current market compared to the past is that the BTC CVD indicator on Coinbase remains steadily above the 90-day median line.During the same period, the 30-day net purchases of Bitcoin spot ETFs have not shown a significant decrease, and funds in the U.S. market are still supporting it. Analysts state that shorting in the short term remains a high-risk behavior, and bears still need to wait for bearish sentiment to dominate on Binance, as well as for U.S. investors' spot buying to gradually withdraw.

According to 10x Research analysis, since mid-January, the total gamma exposure of Bitcoin has remained negative, currently reaching -3.2 billion dollars at the strike price of 82,000 dollars. In a negative gamma environment, market makers are forced to trade in the direction of the trend, accelerating buying during price increases and accelerating selling during price decreases, which exacerbates price volatility.As the options expiration on May 29 and June 26 approaches, the negative gamma suppression effect is expected to gradually dissipate, and the downward bias of Bitcoin will subsequently ease. Currently, the market demand for call options is significantly higher than for put options, and institutions expect that market sentiment will shift from bearish to bullish at that time.

Glassnode pointed out that after Bitcoin broke through resistance and entered the $82,000-$83,000 range, market volatility has significantly rebounded. Options data shows that the implied volatility (IV) has rebounded sharply from the low in October 2025, with 1-week IV rising by 6 points, indicating a recovery in short-term options demand. The 25D skew continues to compress towards neutrality, with bearish hedge demand weakening.The volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned positive, and the future volatility priced in options is now higher than the realized volatility in the spot market. Additionally, there is a short-term gamma short cluster of nearly $2 billion around the $82,000 mark, and traders' hedging behavior may amplify the current price volatility.In the past 24 hours, selling call options accounted for 81% of trading flow, indicating that some traders are starting to cash in on gains, with overall positions leaning towards consolidation rather than panic hedging.

According to market news, the U.S. PCE inflation data is about to be released, combined with rising international oil prices and climbing U.S. Treasury yields, which continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. Currently, Bitcoin is facing significant resistance around the $80,000 mark, while the derivatives market continues to signal risk aversion.Analysis indicates that the cost basis for short-term holders is concentrated around $80,000. If the price breaks through this level, it may trigger profit-taking selling pressure, thereby limiting further upside potential. In addition, Bitwise researcher Luke Deans pointed out that the current 180-day correlation and Beta quantile of altcoins with Bitcoin are close to 97% and 99%, respectively, indicating that most tokens will still behave as "high-leverage versions of Bitcoin."

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, in the past hour, 0xbac opened a 40x leveraged BTC short position, with a scale of 11.67 million USD, an average price of 77,749 USD, and a liquidation price at 81,286 USD. In addition, this address has also placed a market take-profit order, planning to close the position when BTC drops to the integer level of 70,000 USD.

According to DL News, STS Digital's CEO Maxime Seiler stated that Bitcoin traders are increasingly positioning themselves for a price decline.In a report, he noted that the demand for put options is significantly higher than that for call options, with investors paying a premium for downside protection while selling off bullish bets, reflecting a sense of panic in the market. This bearish signal comes as Bitcoin's trading price hovers slightly above $70,000.Previously, Bitcoin fell nearly 4% over the weekend due to President Trump's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the U.S. Central Command announced that the Navy would intercept all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports starting at 10 AM Eastern Time, causing oil prices to rebound above $100 per barrel.High oil prices mean rising inflationary pressures, which will be a major focus for global central bank governors at their meeting in late April. The prices of risk assets like Bitcoin are highly dependent on the policies of these institutions, as they determine the money supply in the financial system. The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain a focal point for the market this week.

Economist and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff called for selling Bitcoin, while Strategy founder Michael Saylor refuted this.Peter Schiff stated earlier that over the past five years, the price of Bitcoin has only increased by 12%. During the same period, the Nasdaq rose by 57.4%, the S&P 500 rose by 59.4%, gold rose by 163%, and silver rose by 181%. If Bitcoin's appeal lies in its superior long-term performance, why do people still hold onto it?Michael Saylor replied that the time frame is crucial. Since August 2020, Bitcoin has been the best-performing mainstream asset, and the advantage is very clear. If the time span is extended, this gap will only widen.

Santiment indicates that market trends often go against public expectations, "such a high level of FUD sentiment is a positive signal, suggesting that the market is likely to improve in the near future."

Bitfinex released a report indicating that BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of $69.4 million and $114 million, ending a previous two-week trend of outflows. However, structurally, ARK Invest and Fidelity remain the main players, while the capital inflow for BlackRock's IBIT is limited, reflecting that institutional demand remains cautious.In addition, the funding rates in the derivatives market remained negative for most of the first quarter, indicating a continued dominance of short positions, with traders still inclined to pay for downside risk. Currently, there is a liquidation cluster below Bitcoin's price of about $66,500; if the price rises, it may trigger a short squeeze. However, overall, the market's confidence in this round of rebound remains insufficient.

According to Coinglass data, the cryptocurrency market has rebounded, with Bitcoin currently priced at $68,171, a 24-hour increase of 2.34%; Ethereum is currently priced at $2,079.76, a 24-hour increase of 3.53%. Current funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX platforms show that bearish sentiment for ETH has eased compared to before, while BTC is relatively lagging behind, with multiple platforms still showing negative funding rates for BTC, indicating a clear divergence between the two.Specifically, the funding rate for ETH has returned to the +0.01% benchmark level on several platforms, significantly narrowing the overall bearish signals compared to earlier. For BTC, several platforms, including Binance, still have rates in the negative range, with shorts continuously paying fees to longs to maintain their positions; although some platforms have turned positive, they remain below the 0.005% threshold and have not yet returned to neutral. The specific funding rates for mainstream cryptocurrencies are shown in the attached image.Note: Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of the underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and the trading platform does not charge this fee; it is used to adjust the cost or profit of the contracts held by traders to keep the contract prices close to the prices of the underlying assets. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it represents a generally bearish market.

According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Ethereum has broken through a key technical support level and is currently showing a bearish flag pattern, with prices touching around $2004. This pattern is highly similar to this year's trend, and caution is advised as this pattern may reoccur.On the funding side, market trading volume remains sluggish, with insufficient participation willingness. Ethereum ETFs have continued to see net outflows since last year, with no recent improvement. On the fundamental side, the new cycle of DeFi has not yet started, and there are no obvious signs of recovery in on-chain activity. Recently, the minting volume of USDC has significantly slowed down and turned into net outflows. The improvement in liquidity within the ecosystem is still not stable, and structural demand support remains limited.

According to CoinDesk, as of 1 AM, the number of long positions in BTC/USD on the Bitfinex exchange has surged to 79,343, reaching a 28-month high since November 2023.Historical data indicates that the surge in long positions on this platform has often served as a contrarian indicator, typically signaling price tops and impending sell-offs. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2025, while the number of BTC/USD longs increased by 30%, the spot price of Bitcoin fell by 23%.Currently, this extreme bullish sentiment indicator has once again raised a red flag. Coupled with geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures, market analysts believe that Bitcoin's consolidation in the $65,000 to $75,000 range may end with a downward breakout, deepening the downtrend that began from last year's peak.

According to VanEck's latest Bitcoin on-chain report, Bitcoin options traders' bearish sentiment has risen to its highest level in five years, with the put/call ratio peaking at 0.84 last month, an average of 0.77, placing it in the most bearish 9% range since mid-2019. The total size of open interest in options has surpassed $33 billion.At the same time, the premium for put options has also reached an all-time high, indicating that institutional investors are buying significant amounts of downside protection. Analysts point out that the current extreme defensive posture may stem from macro factors such as the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, regulatory risks, and liquidity concerns, but there are also views suggesting that historically, peaks in bearish sentiment often signal a market bottom.

DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev posted on X platform, stating that some media have spread misinformation about his claim that "altcoins will never rise."He indicated that the current market is in a phase of activation and expansion, suggesting to pay attention to actual market performance, and reminding that one should not blindly trust media reports, but rather judge based on original information sources. Previously, he disclosed that he had increased his holdings in altcoins, Bitcoin, and BNB in February of this year, and plans to wait for a market rebound.

According to CoinDesk, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen stated that the recent rise in Bitcoin is primarily driven by a large number of put option sell-offs with strike prices around $55,000 and $60,000.As these options approach expiration and become less likely to be exercised, traders are closing these positions, forcing market makers to buy Bitcoin to rebalance their exposure, creating buying pressure that supports the price increase.Thielen pointed out that there has not yet been a significant buying of call options, indicating that the rise is mainly driven by hedging closures rather than proactive bullish sentiment. Bitcoin briefly broke through $76,000 this morning, effectively breaking the long-term resistance range of $73,750-$74,400 for the first time since 2024, driving the overall cryptocurrency market higher.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated on social media that the current price of Bitcoin has risen above its fair value, and the market structure has significantly changed compared to two weeks ago.Axel Adler Jr pointed out that two weeks ago, the market was in a bearish dominant phase, with the price of Bitcoin below its fair value, and the model he used was also in a "Bear Regime" state. As of now, this structure has completely reversed—prices have risen above fair value, and the bears' control over the market has come to an end.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, in the past half hour, during the brief surge of BTC over $70,000, the whale starting with 0xcbd has continued to average down its 40x leveraged BTC short position, further increasing its holdings by approximately 23.3 BTC (about $1.6 million). After this round of accumulation, its position size has reached $3.12 million, with an average opening price rising to $69,556, currently facing a floating loss of 16%, and the position was opened 3 hours ago.Meanwhile, this address has placed take-profit orders in the range of $69,200 to $69,450, planning to close the position in batches within this price range. Its liquidation price is currently set at $70,637.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, the whale address starting with 0xcac has recently undergone a significant shift in its holding structure.Previously, this address engaged in neutral arbitrage operations for a long time, earning the funding rate difference by selling BTC spot and closing short positions, or buying spot and increasing short positions. After the BTC price fell below $73,000, it began to increase short positions unidirectionally and no longer hedged. Currently, it still holds about $11 million in ETH and BTC spot, while the total scale of short positions has expanded to $34.9 million.Its main positions are 20x BTC short: the position size reaches $15.7 million, with an average price of $89,900, an unrealized profit of $4.3 million (548%), and a funding rate settlement recorded at $1.76 million. 10x HYPE short: the position size reaches $11.8 million, with an average price of $33.6, an unrealized loss of $450,000 (-38%), and a funding rate settlement recorded at $350,000. 20x ETH short: the position size reaches $7.04 million, with an average price of $4,011, an unrealized profit of $6.64 million (1886%), and a funding rate settlement recorded at $1.35 million.