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Flash

Wintermute: Two major catalysts land, BTC breaks range to create an eight-month high

Wintermute released the market weekly report, stating that the Federal Reserve passed an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75-4% with a unanimous vote of 12-0 on September 21. Sixteen officials expect at least one more rate hike this year, and inflation is not expected to return to the 2% target before 2029.The two major catalysts that the market was focused on—the FOMC rate hike and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate (49-50, not reaching the 60-vote threshold), and the SEC and CFTC immediately stated they would formulate cryptocurrency regulatory rules under existing authority. The market adjusted for only one trading day before recovering. BTC traded this week in the range of $75,000 to $81,000, with a weekly closing price of $81,159, marking the first time since last November that it has stood above the 50-week moving average; ETH rose 6.7%, trading in the range of $2,350 to $2,600.In terms of ETF funds, there was a net outflow of $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a return of $593 million from Thursday to Friday, resulting in a net outflow of about $6 million over five trading days, with the outflow triggered by CLARITY almost fully replenished within 48 hours. Entering this week, both BTC and ETH broke through the upper range before the U.S. stock market opened, accompanied by about $250 million in short liquidations, with BTC briefly reaching $86,000, a new eight-month high.

first_img Blockworks Analyst: PUMP valuation range is $0.0108 to $0.0205

Blockworks research analyst Shaunda Devens stated that the annual revenue of the Solana-based meme coin issuance platform PumpFun reaches $677 million, with the lowest weekly revenue fluctuations among the top ten protocols. The platform combines launchpad and DEX infrastructure while expanding the consumer layer, with daily trading volume on mobile and Terminal's front end increasing 5.6 times since early July. Cumulative revenue since 2024 has reached $1.37 billion, making it the second highest revenue-generating application this year after excluding stablecoin issuers, only behind Hyperliquid.Devens noted that PUMP is currently trading at a 2.8 times price-to-sales ratio, with its valuation range for PUMP between $0.0108 and $0.0205, equivalent to 2.3 to 4.4 times the current price. The programmatic buyback funded by 50% of revenue absorbs approximately 17.6% of the circulating supply at the current price, with about 77% of allocated insider tokens still unmoved. She mentioned that the team has a treasury of approximately $2 billion.She also stated that 96% of the revenue comes from tokens with a market cap of less than $1 million, with revenue priced in SOL at historical highs. PumpFun accounts for about 70% of the trading volume of Solana meme coins. The revenue for the second quarter was $85.2 million, with a run rate of $125.4 million in the third quarter, representing a 47% quarter-over-quarter growth, with the launchpad contributing $87.1 million and PumpSwap contributing $38.3 million. Daily active users on mobile increased from 5,600 to 34,100.
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