quant

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "140-159" has experienced severe fluctuations in winning probability, plummeting from 35.5% an hour ago to the current 17.5% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Justin Drake posted on the X platform that Ethereum L1 will no longer use the SNARK-friendly hash function Poseidon, which has dominated since 2019, and will instead turn to traditional hash functions such as SHA2 or BLAKE2s.This adjustment is based on advancements in the field of SNARK design, shifting the focus from "SNARK-friendly hashing" to "hash-friendly SNARK." By aligning Boolean operations in traditional hashing with binary field native, the proof performance of traditional hashing in SNARK has reached 1 million per second, with an overhead of about 100 times.Research from Binius and Flock has driven relevant progress. The Ethereum Foundation's post-quantum team is advancing this route, with a roadmap that includes deploying production-level leanVM in 2027, and deploying in the consensus layer, execution layer, and data processing layer in 2028.Justin Drake also stated that the enhanced capabilities of AI in cryptanalysis have recently led to setbacks for the lattice-based scheme HAWK and the homomorphic scheme SQIsign, with hash-based schemes being used for post-quantum signatures on the blockchain. The trend of open-source automated research is also accelerating, with SNARK.fast achieving 1.8 million BLAKE3 proofs per second.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that early Bitcoin traders have achieved the highest unrealized gains ever in this cycle.Unlike previous cycles where the selling pressure was mainly absorbed by cryptocurrency exchange traders, the main buying force in this market comes from structural purchases such as spot trading exchange-traded funds and inflows of digital asset funds. This change has driven the unrealized profits of Binance platform traders to nearly three times the peak in 2021.

Bitget announced the launch of the "Project Archimedes," establishing a special fund with a total scale of $300 million to provide capital support for quantitative trading firms, asset management institutions, and market makers. The plan includes two sub-projects: a $100 million "Capital Support Program," which focuses on supporting emerging and growth-oriented quantitative institutions that adopt market-neutral strategies; and a $200 million "Interest-Free Lending Program," aimed at institutions with mature strategies and a certain trading scale, which can obtain interest-free funds by meeting corresponding trading volume or position standards to reduce financing costs and expand strategy scale.Bitget CEO Gracy Chen stated that as competition in institutional trading intensifies, capital, execution efficiency, and risk control are becoming important factors in whether strategies can achieve scalability. The Archimedes plan aims to help capable teams expand their strategy scale through capital support, with expectations to support over 50 projects in the next six months. Meanwhile, relying on Bitget's Unified Trading Account (UTA), institutions can use rToken spot positions as collateral for derivatives, allowing them to maintain tokenized stock exposure and contract strategies simultaneously without cross-account transfers, further enhancing capital efficiency.The Archimedes plan will adopt a long-term cooperation framework, implementing rolling access and phased deployment, and will regularly disclose progress such as the number of participating institutions, capital deployment scale, and strategy distribution.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the current trend of Bitcoin is mainly driven by the futures market. He pointed out that although open interest continues to rise, on-chain spot demand remains in a state of net negative growth.

The hardware wallet Coldcard has been hacked, and the total losses are currently uncertain. The blockchain analysis platform CryptoQuant confirmed the loss to be 1432 bitcoins, while Galaxy Research provided a high-confidence minimum value of 1730 bitcoins. Other analyses suggest that the scale of the losses may be even higher.Research institution Galaxy Research stated that its earlier estimate of 1816 bitcoins is a potential value and not a confirmed total. As of Tuesday, the institution confirmed a high-confidence minimum loss of 1730 bitcoins, with over 450 bitcoins confirmed based on reports from victims. Blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs estimated that the attackers transferred about 1816 bitcoins from over 5200 addresses in four stages. CryptoQuant indicated that its confirmed data only includes addresses publicly disclosed by victims and verified through on-chain patterns, and the statistics may rise as more victims disclose information.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform, correcting the previous analysis of CME Bitcoin futures positions, stating that "Total Reportables (large institutional traders)" was mistakenly labeled as "Leveraged Funds," leading to the belief that CME hedge funds rarely turned into net long positions in BTC futures. However, the actual situation is that leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures.Ki Young Ju provided CFTC futures position data as of August 4: 1. Large institutional traders overall show a slight net long position, which includes asset management institutions, market makers, dealers, etc. Ki Young Ju stated that although the net long extent is limited, the previous judgment about institutional direction being bullish still holds. 2. Leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures, but over the past year, their standard BTC futures net short position has decreased by about 50% (measured in BTC), mainly due to the decline in basis trading returns. When the futures basis returns fell below U.S. Treasury yields, the arbitrage space narrowed. Leveraged funds currently show a net long position in Micro BTC futures, but the scale is small, only about +394 BTC, which is approximately 1% of the standard BTC futures net short position. Ki Young Ju indicated that leveraged funds overall have not yet turned into net long positions, but their long-term structural shorts are clearly weakening, which may reflect the closing of arbitrage trades and adjustments in directional positions.

Vitalik Buterin stated that he has compared the 2023 Ethereum roadmap with the current Strawmap, and while there is still a high degree of overlap in the overall direction, some priorities and technical paths have been clearly adjusted. This includes elevating the priority of quantum security, downplaying VDF and certain EVM improvements, and replacing old designs with unified binary trees, PBT, new state types, and other solutions.He pointed out that the most significant change in the current Strawmap is the emergence of several new topics not included in the 2023 roadmap, reflecting a shift in the focus of Ethereum's development. These new focal points include: stronger native privacy support, aggressive scaling in a post-quantum context, streamlined specifications for formal verification, Blob and Gas futures, native Rollup, and a more open design space around the future form of EVM.Vitalik also emphasized that Ethereum's scaling approach is shifting from "broadly scaling all activities" to "designing more easily scalable dedicated mechanisms for specific high-load scenarios," and views STARK proofs and AI-accelerated formal verification as important foundations for the protocol's future. Overall, this update indicates that the Ethereum roadmap is evolving towards quantum security, privacy-first, censorship resistance, high performance, and more simplified protocol design.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has returned to the levels of the digital gold era.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that hedge funds on the CME have turned into net long positions in BTC futures, which is a rare situation.He pointed out that basis trading usually causes hedge funds to structurally hold short positions, which is also the reason why related data has remained negative for years, and basis trading cannot be conducted in a net long position. This shift of hedge funds to net long positions in BTC futures indicates that institutional investors are optimistic about further increases in BTC prices.

Christopher Smith, founder of the blockchain startup Quantus, stated that the first quantum attack may manifest as a series of unexplained thefts of cryptocurrency wallets, rather than directly stealing the approximately $63 billion worth of dormant Bitcoin expected from Satoshi Nakamoto. He pointed out that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could derive private keys from public keys exposed on the blockchain, allowing attackers to transfer funds without needing to breach wallets, devices, or internal systems of exchanges.In theft incidents at highly secure institutions, the only forensic evidence may be the absence of intrusion traces. Smith indicated that the initial targets of quantum attacks could be military systems and national secrets; in the blockchain space, the minting keys of stablecoin issuer Tether may be of greater value. Attackers could mint tokens out of thin air through managed wallets and sell them off before the issuer responds. Google has accelerated its post-quantum migration timeline to 2029; Smith believes the probability of quantum computers breaking modern cryptography around 2028 is "50-50." Relevant blockchains have begun migrating to post-quantum signatures.

Starknet announced that it has completed the quantum-resistant signature transfer test, where a wallet account using a quantum-resistant signature mechanism completed a real transfer on the Starknet mainnet, with a transaction fee of about 6 cents, and can be queried through the block explorer. This account is currently an experimental, unaudited version, mainly used for research testing. StarkWare stated that this transfer benefits from the design of the Starknet account model.Unlike most blockchains that fix the signature algorithm at the protocol layer, each account on Starknet is a smart contract that can autonomously define the accepted signature schemes, allowing users to upgrade their wallets from traditional elliptic curve signatures to quantum-resistant signatures without hard forks, asset migrations, or changing addresses. StarkWare pointed out that most blockchains face quantum computing risks because wallet signatures and underlying verification systems rely on elliptic curve cryptography. Once large-scale quantum computers appear, running Shor's algorithm could potentially break the related encryption systems. Currently, the Starknet ecosystem supports a quantum-resistant signature scheme based on Falcon-512, which is part of the NIST post-quantum cryptography standardization process, with relevant implementations promoted by ecosystem teams and organizations such as OpenZeppelin.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Novaque Research, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 on July 29 to maintain the interest rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, maintaining the interest rate is different from cutting rates and did not bring new liquidity stimulus, and Bitcoin's internal demand indicators reflect this constraint.Novaque stated that the Coinbase premium index continues to be deeply negative, close to -0.11, indicating that Bitcoin's pricing on Coinbase is weaker than on offshore platforms, pointing to sluggish spot demand in the U.S.; total open interest remains below the 100-day moving average, and CME options exposure has significantly contracted from the peak in the first quarter; exchange reserves have rebounded from the April low to about 2.72 million BTC, indicating an increase in supply that can be sold at any time. It believes that against the backdrop of weak demand in the U.S., simply pausing interest rate hikes can only prevent further tightening and cannot create a favorable environment for price increases, and Bitcoin prices will remain under pressure in the short term.

According to the Daily Economic News, the July quantitative private equity industry experienced a systemic drawdown, with several institutional products seeing a monthly net value decline of over 20%, turning year-to-date returns from positive to negative. Specifically, among the 9 displayed products under Huansquare Quantitative, 8 have recorded negative returns year-to-date, with all monthly declines in July exceeding 20%, and the maximum drawdown reaching 22.15%; among the 14 products displayed by Mingcong Investment, 9 have recorded negative returns year-to-date; in Jiukun Investment's 15 products, 14 still have positive returns year-to-date, but the monthly drawdown is also significant. In contrast, Yanfeng Investment has shown relatively stable performance.Regarding this drawdown, multiple institutions believe that this round of adjustment is more due to emotions and trading structures rather than the end of the AI industry trend. Freshwater Spring Investment pointed out that AI is still rapidly developing in terms of model capability enhancement, cost reduction, and the diffusion of application scenarios. Referencing experiences from the internet era, it is normal for there to be fluctuations during the advancement of technological waves. Institutions believe that AI investment is gradually transitioning from the previous focus on computing power infrastructure in the "first half" to "intelligent equity" in the "second half"—that is, a phase where the cost of intelligent usage continues to decline and application scenarios are accelerated in unlocking, providing opportunities for supply chain companies that can offer cost-effective solutions for leading model companies and large cloud vendors.

Former hedge fund manager and CNBC host Jim Cramer stated that due to concerns about quantum computing threatening Bitcoin's security, he plans to sell all of his BTC holdings. His statement stems from an interview with IBM Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna, who said that investors should be wary of the challenges quantum computing may pose to modern cryptography in the next 3 to 4 years. Cramer believes that quantum computing could threaten the Bitcoin network in a similar timeframe. However, no one has independently confirmed how much BTC he holds or whether he has completed the sale.After his statement, Bitcoin continued to trade normally around $63,764, with some market participants viewing his comments as a "reverse Cramer" signal. Bitcoin uses the ECDSA signature mechanism based on the secp256k1 curve, and theoretically, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could use Shor's algorithm to derive the private key from the public key. The risk is mainly concentrated on addresses with exposed public keys, including reused addresses, early wallet formats, and the brief time window after a transaction is broadcast but not yet confirmed. Researchers estimate that about 6 to 7 million BTC, accounting for approximately 30% of the supply, may fall into this category. Google Quantum AI estimated in March this year that breaking the relevant cryptographic mechanisms could require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, reducing the previous estimate by about 20 times. However, current quantum systems typically only have hundreds to thousands of physical qubits, with even fewer logical qubits that have higher reliability. Most researchers expect that truly capable quantum computers for cryptographic breaking may not appear until the 2030s or even 2040s, making Cramer's 3-year prediction significantly earlier than most technological expectations.

According to BBX data, global listed companies disclosed the latest real accounts on crypto asset portfolio adjustments, liquidation stop-losses, and strategic positions over the weekend. The core dynamics are as follows:Trump Media transfers 2,628 BTC at a huge loss to the exchange: Trump Media (NASDAQ: $DJT) transferred its 2,628 BTC (worth approximately $165 million) to the Crypto.com exchange on Saturday (August 1), with market expectations that it will further liquidate. The company purchased 11,542 BTC at an average price of $118,529 last year and has sold a total of 7,281 BTC this year (average price of about $74,860), realizing a loss of $318 million; it currently holds 4,261 BTC (with an unrealized loss of $237 million), bringing the total cumulative loss/unrealized loss to as high as $555 million.Quantum Solutions sells 1,000 ETH to fund AI data center: The Tokyo Stock Exchange listed company Quantum Solutions (TYO: 2338) sold 1,000 ETH at a price of $1,903 each on July 30, raising $1.9 million to fund its AI data center business, expecting to recognize a loss of about $100,000. Together with the 904 ETH sold in June, the company's holdings have decreased by 29% to 4,764.8 ETH. The board has raised the sale limit from 1,875 ETH to 4,375 ETH, and if the limit is reached, it will dispose of about 66% of its initial holdings.Japanese listed company Eole purchases HYPE to create a crypto bank: Japanese listed company Eole disclosed that it bought 1,078.25 HYPE (average price of $57.15, worth about $66,000) on July 28. The company plans to increase its total investment in HYPE to $611,000 through multiple purchases by the end of August and will hold it as a strategic treasury asset under the "Neo Crypto Bank" plan, alongside Bitcoin for the long term.

According to official news, OpenAI has released research results stating that its next-generation AI model Astra has made progress in the fields of mathematics and theoretical computer science, involving areas such as high-dimensional geometry, coding theory, group theory, quantum complexity, post-quantum cryptography, and extremal combinatorial mathematics. The 10 published results include: the high-dimensional sphere packing problem, binary and spherical coding problems, non-sofic group problems, Connes rigidity conjecture, arithmetic circuit complexity problems, quantum parallel repetition problems, nearest vector problems, Ehrhart volume conjecture, multi-color Ramsey number problems, and extremal graph theory conjectures.It is reported that these results were derived using an internal version of the Astra model, with the computational cost of finding solutions amounting to approximately $2000 (calculated based on Sol API prices).Subsequently, human researchers used the same model to assist in compiling the results into a paper and generated verifiable proof certificates through the Lean formal proof system.

According to Forbes, Vaulted CEO David McAlvany stated that he believes Bitcoin could disappear within the next four years due to quantum computing. He mentioned that once quantum computers can quickly solve the mathematical problems protecting Bitcoin private keys, "that will be the end of Bitcoin."However, McAlvany later admitted that he cannot determine whether the relevant breakthrough will occur in four years, five years, or two months. As of mid-2026, there are no quantum computers capable of cracking Bitcoin's encryption algorithms. His viewpoint is mainly based on concerns about the future development speed of quantum computing, rather than on already occurred security events.Galaxy Digital estimates that approximately 7 million BTC addresses have exposed public keys on-chain, worth about $470 billion; Glassnode's estimate is 6.04 million, accounting for 30.2% of the Bitcoin supply. Exposing public keys does not equate to assets being stolen; only when quantum computers can reverse-engineer private keys from public keys might these addresses face actual theft risks.McAlvany also compared Bitcoin to gold and questioned whether Bitcoin could exist for 5,000 years. He expressed relative confidence that gold will still exist by then, but Bitcoin "might exist, or it might not."Bitcoin developers currently have differing opinions on solutions. BIP-360 proposes to add quantum-resistant address types; BIP-361 plans to phase out support for old-style signatures, with assets that do not migrate in time potentially being permanently frozen, including those believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. Supporters argue that freezing assets is better than allowing quantum attackers to steal and sell them, while critics view it as confiscation.Companies like BOLTS Technologies and American Fortress are also developing cross-chain quantum-resistant solutions. American Fortress completed an $8 million seed round in May and claims its technology can protect assets without requiring users to migrate addresses, but the relevant technical papers have not yet been published, and the design has not undergone public auditing.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "280-299" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 13.85% an hour ago to the current 29.5% (a fluctuation of 15.65%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to BBX data, yesterday global listed companies disclosed the latest real announcements regarding adjustments in cryptocurrency assets and business payment applications, with the following core dynamics:Hyperscale Data monetizes 100 BTC to build an AI data center: U.S. listed company Hyperscale Data, Inc. (NYSE American: $GPUS) announced the sale of 100 bitcoins to fund the construction of its AI data center located in Michigan. The company's CEO William Horne stated that this move is "converting one balance sheet asset into another," and clarified that the company's underlying belief in bitcoin has not changed.Quantum Solutions sells 1,000 ETH to inject into AIDC business: Japanese listed company Quantum Solutions announced that it sold 1,000 ETH through its merged subsidiary GPT Pals Studio Limited (GPT) for $1.9 million (approximately 311 million yen). The proceeds from the sale will be fully invested in the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure (AIDC) and data center business.Vida Global seamlessly accesses bitcoin payroll through the Lightning Network: U.S. listed company Vida Global (NYSE American: $VIDA) announced the adoption of Voltage Credit to pay its global team members in bitcoin via the Lightning Network. This mechanism utilizes a revolving credit line to instantly issue bitcoin and repays the balance in U.S. dollars at the end of each month, similar to processing standard vendor invoices, allowing the company to establish a cryptocurrency payroll settlement channel without directly holding a bitcoin wallet or reflecting cryptocurrency assets on its balance sheet.