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first_img The New York Times: Suspicious bets appeared on Polymarket before the poll was released

According to a report by The New York Times, researchers at Vanderbilt University found that a Polymarket user bet nearly $200,000 on October 31, believing that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would win re-election. About an hour later, a poll released jointly by The New York Times and Siena College showed Ricketts in the lead. The report stated that it is currently unclear whether the user had insider information, but their profit exceeded $77,000.The report also mentioned that the user made similar large bets in other markets, including Kalshi. Brett Goldstein from Vanderbilt University's National Security Research Institute stated that this series of events is difficult to consider as random occurrences and requires further investigation. Polymarket stated that it has identified related transactions and is investigating, while Kalshi declined to comment.In April of this year, Cointelegraph reported that a U.S. Army soldier was sued for profiting over $400,000 from bets in a prediction market, allegedly using non-public information related to U.S. actions against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. Department of Justice stated that Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of "Operation Absolute Resolve," which captured Maduro at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January of this year. He is accused of using that information to buy "yes" shares of related Polymarket contracts, including "Maduro will resign before January 31."

first_img GPT-6.2 Astra appears in Codex, Anthropic official website code appears Mythos 5.5

On November 1, 2026, multiple users posted on X stating that OpenAI's Codex usage data included a model label named GPT-6.2 Astra, while the model selector still displayed GPT-6 Astra. A usage chart covering October 26 to November 1 showed that gpt-6-astra accounted for 80%, and gpt-6.2-astra accounted for 19.8%. Another account posted a suspected JSON snippet of an API response, with the response.model field being gpt-6.2-astra. According to Quantum Bit, GPT-6.2 Astra has been undergoing a limited gray testing among some users, with access primarily restricted to Pro plan users at $500 per month. Some users reported that about 20% of requests were routed to 6.2, while others claimed all requests pointed to 6.2.On the same day, an account posted a screenshot claiming that hidden code on the Anthropic official website's Mythos page included Claude Mythos 5.5. The visible page displayed Claude Mythos 5.1, while the hidden header and logo alt text indicated 5.5. According to Quantum Bit, this text briefly appeared in the front-end code of the official website and was removed a few hours later. Anthropic has not confirmed this, and currently, apart from the screenshot, there are no archived copies to verify this change.Additionally, there were previous reports that Fable 5.5 had appeared in the Microsoft Azure and MLflow directories, with a context window of 1 million tokens and an output limit of 128K tokens. Verification showed that on October 13, 2026, a bot added the entry azure_ai/claude-fable-5-5 to the price list of the open-source tool LiteLLM, which was deleted the next day, with the deletion note stating "Azure did not list this model." These parameters are identical to those of Fable 5.1. As of now, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has officially released the aforementioned models.

During the Binance hack, an on-chain arbitrage window appeared, with a single address profiting approximately 3.47 million USD

During the attack on Binance, arbitrage opportunities appeared on-chain. A community user reviewed that the attacker, in order to avoid Tether's freeze, exchanged a large amount of USDT for ETH through DEX, causing the price of ETH on Uniswap to rise to between $2560 and $2750, with some transactions exceeding $3000, while the ETH price obtained through Chainlink oracles on Aave remained between $2250 and $2290, resulting in a price difference of 15% to 30% between on-chain and oracle prices, lasting nearly an hour.Arbitrageurs took advantage of this price difference by depositing USDC/USDT as collateral on Aave, borrowing ETH at the oracle price, and then selling it at a high price on DEX. After the price difference narrowed, they bought back ETH to repay the loan. According to the user's statistics, within 6 hours after the incident, a total of 61 addresses borrowed ETH on the Aave mainnet (excluding hacker addresses), with the address that profited the most selling 12,289 ETH at an average price of about $2580, and then buying back 12,314 ETH at an average price of about $2297, making a profit of about $3.47 million. The top ten arbitrage addresses collectively made a profit of about $6.36 million.The user stated that the arbitrageurs exploited the price disconnection between centralized exchanges and DEX, and there was no vulnerability in the Aave contract itself. As DEX prices fell and Aave froze the mainnet V3 market, the arbitrage window gradually closed. The aforementioned profits are based on on-chain statistics and have not yet deducted Gas fees.

first_img Four Pillars Researcher: Robinhood Chain has not disappeared

On October 20, researcher 100y from the cryptocurrency research institution Four Pillars published a response to external doubts: Robinhood Chain has not disappeared, its ecosystem remains resilient, and it is preparing for the next round of growth. The chain is set to launch on July 1, 2026, positioning itself as an on-chain financial network centered around tokenized stocks. The article states that Robinhood's cryptocurrency business revenue share dropped from 27.2% in the first quarter of 2025 to 12.6% in the first quarter of 2026.According to data from The Rollup, the chain's daily network fees on September 4 were approximately $8.27 million, compared to Robinhood's total cryptocurrency business revenue of about $100 million in the second quarter of 2026. After the market weakened and meme popularity cooled, fees fell by over 99% from their peak, with daily fees in mid-October around $30,000 to $40,000, less than 1% of the peak. 100y attributed the spike in fees to congestion in September: the chain uses the Arbitrum tech stack, and the base fee index rises when usage exceeds target processing capacity.As of the publication date, the on-chain Total Value Locked (TVL) is approximately $1.1 billion. The Steakhouse Financial curation and the Steakhouse USDG Vault supplying USDG to Morpho account for about half of this, with a scale of approximately $540 million and still rising, and around 75,000 deposit wallets. Stocks and ETFs account for more than half of the issued Real World Asset (RWA) tokens, with an associated outstanding value of about $150 million. The spot trading volumes on September 4 and October 7 were approximately $3.27 billion and $3.24 billion, respectively, and daily trading volumes have remained at least around $600 million to $700 million since then. Robinhood has strategically invested in the perpetual platform Lighter and Arcus. 100y stated that the next round of growth depends on the scale of the treasury and stock tokens, meme trading, perpetual activities after the points period, as well as more builders and new on-chain financial primitives.

Analyst: Significant differentiation has appeared on the Bitcoin blockchain, with whales turning to hoarding coins while spot demand remains weak

On-chain data analyst XWIN cited CryptoQuant data indicating that Bitcoin's current on-chain data is showing a significant divergence between whale behavior and the spot market. Although large holders have begun to accumulate again, demand in the spot market remains weak, and the market is transitioning from "seller exhaustion" to a potential bottom. XWIN stated that on-chain data shows positive accumulation signals. Holders of 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins have significantly reversed their 60-day net accumulation from negative 62,600 to positive 5,230, indicating that major whales are shifting from a distribution model back to accumulation.At the same time, the USDT reserves on the Binance trading platform have surged from about 790 million USD to 1.76 billion USD, suggesting that potential buying power in the market is increasing. However, spot buying in the U.S. has not kept pace. The Coinbase premium index is currently around -0.1416%, and weekly trading platform flow has turned into a net inflow of 8,428 BTC. Additionally, the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) hovers around 0.9982, indicating that short-term holders are still experiencing slight losses near the breakeven point and are choosing to sell.Analysts believe that while the underlying structure is improving, stronger spot demand is still urgently needed to spark a sustainable rebound. They suggest that investors focus on three key signals in the future: the trend of the Coinbase premium index, changes in exchange net flow, and whether the STH-SOPR can successfully rise above the 1 mark.
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