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In October, the core CPI in the United States exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, with rising costs in energy, services, and AI increasing pressure for interest rate hikes

Inflation data for October in the United States sends multiple warning signals. The data shows that the core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month; the overall CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, also above expectations. The impact of rising energy prices is spreading to areas such as food and transportation, and service inflation remains robust, further complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation.Specifically, food prices in the U.S. rose by 0.5% month-on-month in October, with grocery prices recording the largest monthly increase since April; urban transportation service prices saw the largest monthly increase since 2020, and prices for airline tickets and delivery services also increased. Additionally, service prices excluding energy and housing rents rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while owners' equivalent rent increased by 0.3%.AI investments are bringing new cost pressures. Over the past three months, the annualized price increase for computers and peripheral devices in the U.S. reached 25%, and electricity prices rose by 0.9% month-on-month in October, marking the largest increase in six months. Morgan Stanley estimates that AI-related factors have contributed about 6 basis points to the core CPI this year, with the current impact still relatively limited, but as data center investments expand, related pressures may rise further.In terms of monetary policy, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee described the latest inflation data as approaching an alarming level. Fed Governor Waller previously stated that if the core CPI month-on-month increase reaches 0.3% or higher, the December meeting should consider raising interest rates by 50 basis points. Goldman Sachs has included a forecast for an additional 25 basis point increase in March 2027, expecting that the target range for the federal funds rate will rise to 4.25% to 4.50%. However, some economists warn that there is a lag in the transmission of energy prices, and over-reliance on current data may lead to excessive tightening of monetary policy.

Barclays: The Nvidia controversy and financing risks cannot hinder the long-term trend of AI; investors should still maintain exposure

Julian Lafarge, Chief Market Strategist at Barclays Private Bank, stated that despite the uncertainty surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's future, the uncertain returns on AI investments, and rising financing costs testing market confidence, investors should continue to participate in the AI market. Lafarge believes that AI is not a bubble but a technological revolution that will impact all industries, although its commercialization and infrastructure development cannot happen overnight.Lafarge pointed out that Nvidia is referred to as the "central bank of AI trading," but even if the company changes its CEO, it does not mean that the entire AI industry chain's trading needs to be re-evaluated or renegotiated. He compared the potential leadership transition at Nvidia to previous management transitions at Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, arguing that a successor taking over does not necessarily weaken corporate value.However, Barclays lists interest rates and the financing environment as major risks that could disrupt the market. As the scale of AI infrastructure investment expands, the market's focus is shifting from whether the demand for computing power is real to whether the massive capital expenditures can generate sufficient returns. Data center construction also faces bottlenecks such as power access, equipment installation, and commercial operation cycles, while expectations of tightening Federal Reserve policies may also raise corporate financing costs and depress long-term cash flow valuations.Lafarge emphasized that the trillions of dollars in AI investment commitments cannot quickly translate into actual computing power delivery, and there will be significant divergence in investment returns among companies. Tighter financing conditions may change the pace of industry investment and competitive landscape, but it does not mean that the long-term demand for AI infrastructure will disappear. Barclays still prefers to maintain exposure to AI investments until there are clear signs of a significant slowdown in industry growth momentum.

first_img The Japanese government is considering establishing penalties for the out-of-control frontier AI and plans to announce a reform plan by the end of the year

IT Home reported on November 12 that the Japanese government is considering requiring AI companies to fulfill security obligations and introducing new penalties to address the risks of uncontrolled advanced AI. The Japanese government plans to announce a comprehensive reform plan by the end of this year, with relevant content confirmed in a closed working group meeting discussing AI legal systems. This move aims to address significant threats such as AI cyberattacks and loss of control, ensuring that the government can take action against malicious companies that refuse to negotiate.Currently, the business division of AI companies is becoming increasingly detailed, including various aspects such as basic research, foundational model development, and user services. The Japanese government will further discuss the scope of regulatory targets. If American AI large model companies are included in the regulation, how to effectively protect the rights and interests of Japanese users will also become a problem that needs to be addressed. For companies that refuse to cooperate in negotiations after issues arise, the Japanese government plans to issue enforcement orders when necessary and consider imposing penalties on companies that defy these orders. These measures are expected to primarily target incidents of uncontrolled advanced AI and attacks.

Analysis: The process of deleveraging has accelerated, and Binance's Bitcoin open interest has decreased by 17% in one month

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that within less than a month, the open interest of BTC on the Binance platform has decreased from 10.6 billion dollars to 8.8 billion dollars, a drop of 17%. Meanwhile, its 180-day moving average has risen from 8.4 billion dollars to 8.6 billion dollars. As the open interest falls below the moving average, new signals of deleveraging are emerging in the market. In a bull market phase, this signal typically appears when market corrections are nearing their end, reflecting that traders are reducing their leveraged exposure, which includes both voluntary liquidations and forced liquidations due to insufficient margin.Aside from the fact that this process may last for months in a bear market, a similar signal last appeared in June of this year when the BTC price was below 60,000 dollars, subsequently rebounding to above 87,000 dollars, with an increase of over 45%. Currently, as the open interest declines, the market is also experiencing large-scale liquidations. Low volatility seems to encourage some traders to take on higher risks to compensate for the insufficient returns brought about by the narrowing price fluctuations, making them more susceptible to market reversal shocks. Over the past three months, the monthly liquidation scale on Binance has reached new highs since 2021: over 1.4 billion dollars in August, 1.1 billion dollars in September, and 1.3 billion dollars in October. This trend appears to continue into November, with the liquidation scale exceeding 520 million dollars before the end of the first half of this month.These data highlight the potential losses that leveraged trading can bring to investors. In a market environment with low volatility and shrinking trading volume, blindly increasing risk exposure due to a lack of patience can quickly lead to heavy costs. However, the deleveraging phase also helps improve the market environment. Reducing leveraged positions can lower the risk of cascading liquidations, allowing spot demand to play a greater role in market pricing, thereby helping Bitcoin establish a more robust market structure.

Data: Hyperliquid HIP-3 Nvidia's open interest contract size reached 535 million USD, second only to BTC, ETH, and HYPE

According to monitoring by Mlm on chain, Nvidia (NVDA) has currently become the largest HIP-3 market by open contract size on Hyperliquid, and it is the fourth largest market on the platform, only behind BTC, ETH, and HYPE. Its open contract size has reached 535 million dollars, growing 5.8 times in the past 7 days, which is 2.4 times the previous peak of 227 million dollars in June of this year.Currently, the NVDA market's daily trading volume has surpassed 1 billion dollars for the first time. The largest single position is a short position of 348,000 shares of NVDA held by Jump, valued at approximately 56 million dollars, which is a non-directional position. The largest directional position is a long position of 191,000 shares of NVDA, valued at approximately 30.7 million dollars, which has been gradually built up over the past 24 hours, with an average entry price of 174.43 dollars, currently showing an unrealized loss of about 2.6 million dollars.The market has a total of 9,517 trading wallets, of which 83% hold long positions; market makers account for 70% of the short open contract size. The average entry price for longs is currently 169.55 dollars, while the mark price is 160.66 dollars, which is about 5.2% lower than the average entry price. The total unrealized losses for all NVDA long positions have reached 14.6 million dollars.

first_img Analyze: The purchase of Montra tokens is a personal decision, and I apologize to the team

Analyze, responsible for the extensive marketing and operational strategies of the Elysium ecosystem token issuance platform Ascend, responded to related doubts about Spinor and the Ascend community. Analyze stated that the plan to purchase tokens from the ecosystem issuance platform Montra was made solely by him, and other team members were not involved in that decision. He mentioned that one or two days before the token launch, he transferred $100,000 to a wallet to establish a position, viewing this as a business arrangement for Ascend, believing that companies often purchase equity in competitors through strategic investments, and purchasing Montra was similar. Analyze stated that the relevant tokens were purchased after the launch, and any market participant could perform similar operations.Analyze also mentioned that after learning about the purchase of Montra tokens, a friend created a FOMO wallet and suggested transferring the tokens to that wallet. He admitted that a large number of comments were handled by him before the release, and he did not stop them, allowing them to continue, calling this practice extremely unprofessional and apologizing for it. Analyze stated that unexpected situations arose on the day of the launch, leading him to make irrational decisions, and he also pushed Tommy to acquire more supply, while Tommy initially expressed opposition. Analyze publicly apologized to Tommy, the rest of the Ascend team, and the community, stating that his decision put all parties in the current situation, and he takes responsibility for it.
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