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BTC $79,080.98 -2.71%
ETH $2,220.56 -3.14%
BNB $673.13 -0.86%
XRP $1.43 -4.67%
SOL $89.21 -3.66%
TRX $0.3515 -0.94%
DOGE $0.1129 -2.24%
ADA $0.2606 -4.24%
BCH $424.51 -2.96%
LINK $10.02 -5.27%
HYPE $44.52 +1.60%
AAVE $92.66 -6.79%
SUI $1.09 -8.39%
XLM $0.1543 -6.17%
ZEC $515.95 -3.88%

drop

Analyst: Ethereum faces downside risk, may drop 20% to $1700

According to Cointelegraph, multiple analysts have pointed out that Ethereum faces downside risks, with ETH potentially dropping another 20% to the $1,700 range. The increase in holdings on trading platforms and the decline in ETF demand are the main sources of pressure.CryptoQuant analyst BorisD noted that from May 5 to May 9, the ETH reserves on Binance surged from 3.36 million to 3.84 million, while the price dropped 7% from $2,390 to $2,260 during the same period. He stated, "This indicates that liquidity is being absorbed and distributed simultaneously. The overall structure still points to dominant downside risks."Another analyst, PelinayPA, shares the same view, believing that any short-term rebound will "be accompanied by high volatility, followed by a continuation of a broader downward trend," and added, "A large amount of ETH continues to flow into trading platforms, creating significant resistance to price increases." The net inflow of ETH to trading platforms surged to 585,000, marking the largest single-day inflow since December 2025—at that time, the ETH price was around $3,000, which subsequently dropped to $1,750 in February this year, a decline of 42%. Such large-scale inflows typically indicate that large holders are offloading.Meanwhile, the demand for spot Ethereum ETFs continues to weaken, recording net outflows for four consecutive days, with a total outflow amounting to $190 million. From a technical perspective, the ETH daily chart shows that the ascending wedge pattern has broken below the support level of $2,280. If the daily closing price confirms a break below, the target will point to the wedge measurement target of $1,725, a 22% drop from the current price, aligning with the macro low on February 6 of this year.Analyst ShangoTrades stated that this breakdown "is starting to become concerning." From a longer-term perspective, analyst CryptoBullGod pointed out that the measurement target for the ETH weekly bear flag pattern is $1,280.

Analyst: The ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen over 35% in the past year, and if the current structure continues, it may drop another 40%

According to Cointelegraph, analyst Yashu Gola stated that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen over 35% in the past year, and the current trend is repeating the bearish structure from 2024 to 2025, suggesting there may still be further downside potential.From a technical perspective, ETH/BTC has been constrained by a downward trend line since 2022, with several previous breakout attempts failing, one of which triggered a subsequent decline of nearly 70%. In August 2025, after testing the trend line again, ETH/BTC encountered resistance and fell below the 20-month EMA support around 0.034, indicating that bears still dominate the trend. If weakness persists, the next key downside target is around 0.0176 BTC, which represents about a 40% drop from current levels, corresponding to the 2020 cycle low area.On-chain data shows that the selling pressure risk for ETH is also rising. CryptoQuant data indicates that as of today, ETH reserves on the Binance platform have risen to 3.62 million, accounting for about 24.6% of all trading platform ETH reserves; meanwhile, BTC reserves on Binance have continued to decline during the same period. Generally, an increase in trading platform reserves indicates a greater supply of tokens available for sale, while a decrease in reserves reflects an enhanced trend of long-term holding.Analysts believe this further reinforces the fundamental divergence between ETH and BTC: ETH faces higher circulating supply pressure, while BTC benefits from tightening exchange liquidity and continued institutional accumulation. Meanwhile, the narrative of Ethereum as "ultrasound money" has weakened, while BTC continues to receive corporate buying support, including from Strategy, as well as backing from Wall Street funds.
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