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defi

The Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a long time, which is bearish for Bitcoin but bullish for Circle and RWA

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027. Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency devaluation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures. In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%. Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

Hyperliquid lobbying organization responds to regulatory pressure from CME and ICE: On-chain transparency is more helpful in combating market manipulation

In response to Bloomberg's report on CME and ICE pressuring the CFTC regarding Hyperliquid, the Hyperliquid Policy Center, a lobbying organization led by prominent crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky and funded by the Hyper Foundation, tweeted that the concerns lack basis.The organization stated that Hyperliquid publishes complete on-chain transaction records in real-time, with transparency far exceeding that of traditional exchanges, which serves as a strong deterrent against insider trading and price manipulation, and is beneficial for regulatory agencies and law enforcement to conduct monitoring and investigations.Additionally, Hyperliquid offers 24/7 uninterrupted trading, effectively eliminating price gaps between the opening and closing of traditional markets. The organization acknowledged that current U.S. laws have not yet made specific provisions for on-chain derivatives markets and will continue to work with Washington policymakers to promote the implementation of relevant regulatory frameworks.Previously, the Hyperliquid Policy Center was established on February 18 of this year in Washington, with former Blockchain Association and Variant Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky serving as CEO, receiving a donation of 1 million HYPE from the Hyper Foundation, focusing on promoting a compliant regulatory path for DeFi in the United States.

JPMorgan: Without stronger network activity, Ethereum and altcoins may continue to underperform Bitcoin

JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although the overall cryptocurrency market has recovered after the Iran conflict, Ethereum and other altcoins continue to underperform compared to Bitcoin. The analyst team led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that this trend, which began in 2023, "is unlikely to change unless we see meaningful improvements in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications."The analysts noted that since the conflict triggered a market sell-off, Bitcoin's recovery in spot ETF fund flows and institutional futures positions has outperformed Ethereum. The spot Bitcoin ETF has recovered about two-thirds of the previous outflows, while the spot Ethereum ETF has only recovered about one-third. CME futures positions also indicate that institutional investors are rebuilding their Bitcoin exposure more aggressively than Ethereum.Regarding the upcoming Ethereum upgrades (Glamsterdam and Hegota), analysts questioned whether they would be sufficient to improve ETH's relative performance. Upgrades over the past three years have primarily reduced Layer 2 transaction costs, which has weakened the Ethereum network's fee generation and token burn mechanisms, leading to an accelerated net supply growth and weakened price support. Whether the new upgrades can generate enough new demand and network activity remains to be seen.For altcoins, analysts believe that since 2023, weak liquidity conditions, low market depth and breadth, limited growth in DeFi activity, and recurring hacking and security incidents have collectively eroded market confidence and hindered the deployment of new capital.
19 hours ago

JPMorgan: Ethereum and altcoins may continue to underperform Bitcoin unless network activity improves significantly

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts have stated that despite the overall recovery of the cryptocurrency market following the Iran conflict, Ethereum and altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin. The analysts believe that unless there is a substantial improvement in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications, this trend that began in 2023 is unlikely to change.The analysts pointed out that the spot Bitcoin ETF has recovered about two-thirds of the previously withdrawn funds, while the spot Ethereum ETF has only recovered about one-third. CME futures positions indicate that institutions are rebuilding their Bitcoin exposure more aggressively than Ethereum, with Bitcoin futures positions nearly fully restored, while Ethereum futures positions remain below previous levels.The analysts also questioned whether the upcoming Ethereum upgrade could effectively boost network activity. They noted that upgrades over the past three years have primarily reduced Layer 2 transaction costs, leading to lower Ethereum network fees, a weakened token burn mechanism, and accelerated net supply growth, which has undermined ETH's price support.Regarding altcoins, the analysts pointed out that poor liquidity, insufficient market depth, limited growth in DeFi activity, and repeated hacking incidents have eroded confidence and hindered the allocation of new capital.
21 hours ago

U.S. judge postpones hearing on Aave's application to unfreeze $71 million in stolen ETH

U.S. Judge Margaret M. Garnett in New York postponed the ruling on Aave's emergency application on Wednesday, which aims to unfreeze $71 million in ETH related to the Kelp DAO hacking incident, and requested both parties to submit supplemental briefs before the hearing on June 5. Aave is attempting to reclaim the $71 million in ETH frozen on Arbitrum to assist in the asset recovery efforts from this hacking incident—Kelp DAO suffered losses of up to $293 million from the hack, making it one of the most severe security incidents in the DeFi space this year.However, the U.S. law firm Gerstein Harrow LLP submitted a restraining order to the court in early May, claiming that its client has rights to the aforementioned funds. Aave then filed an emergency motion to lift the freeze, warning that if the funds are not released in a timely manner, it could lead to user liquidations and potentially impact the entire DeFi market. Judge Garnett noted in her ruling that Aave failed to adequately explain how user funds would incur "compound losses" if the restraining order remained in place. She also acknowledged the complexity of the case, the risks faced by the victims, and requested both parties to provide supplemental statements on six key issues, including: whether the hacking transaction is subject to New York state sanctuary principles, the legal distinctions between fraud and theft and what rights the hacker has over the stolen assets, which laws apply to determine the priority of claims for frozen assets, whether constructive trusts are an appropriate remedy, and whether Aave or Arbitrum can identify individual victims and proportionally return assets. Both parties must submit supplemental briefs by May 22.Meanwhile, the overall compensation work for Kelp DAO is progressing. Kelp and Aave announced on Tuesday that the rsETH held by the hacker has been destroyed on Arbitrum, and approximately $278 million in loss tokens will be restored within the next two weeks through the funds of the Aave Recovery Guardian multi-signature wallet. Once the relevant smart contracts are reactivated, all functions of rsETH will return to normal.
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