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coreweave

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Article
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Financial Times: Data center bonds are being sold off, AI borrowers are under pressure

According to the Financial Times, investor confidence in whether the artificial intelligence boom can generate enough revenue to support the massive debts of data centers is weakening, leading to a significant drop in the financing bond prices of some large data center projects in the United States. Some bonds that provide funding for data center construction for companies like Meta, Nvidia, and Oracle have fallen below par value. For example, the bonds of CoreWeave, a cloud computing infrastructure provider invested in by Nvidia, have dropped to below 80 cents on the dollar, reaching levels typically considered distressed bonds, with yields nearing 15% on Thursday. The company's stock price fell 17% this week, while competitor Nebius dropped 18%, and Nvidia's market value evaporated by about $270 billion over the past week.Ludovic Subran, Chief Investment Officer of Allianz Group, stated that data center bonds are entering a "Darwinian moment," where projects with weaker credit quality will face survival challenges. He noted that power supply issues and construction delays have led to widening credit spreads, reflecting that the market had previously been overly optimistic in pricing the execution risks of data center debt. The core concern in the market is the significant gap between the scale of AI infrastructure investment and future revenues. OpenAI has postponed its IPO until next year, and Anthropic's quarterly sales growth has slowed, exacerbating doubts about the sustainability of growth in the AI industry.Research firm Gartner predicts that by 2030, 80% of new cloud service providers may not be able to continue operating independently. It estimates that AI data center owners will need to achieve $8.5 trillion in revenue by the end of 2030 to cover capital and financing costs and achieve reasonable returns, but consumer and enterprise spending on AI services is expected to reach only $3.6 trillion at most, indicating that over $4 trillion in assets may face impairment risks by 2032. In some areas of the United States, restrictions have been tightened due to issues related to water usage, noise, and air pollution from data centers, and delays in power supply approvals have further hindered project progress. Investors remain cautious about the circular financing model where clients and suppliers within the industry finance each other. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated on Thursday that he believes CoreWeave does not need Nvidia to provide backstop support and mentioned that the company's capital costs are decreasing and operational strength is continuously improving.

first_img Grayscale Research Director: Cheaper Proxy AI Will Drive Up Computing Power Demand

Grayscale's Research Director Zach Pandl stated in his column The Stack on October 8 that the rising demand for AI is due to decreasing usage costs and technology's ability to perform tasks more autonomously, thereby increasing the demand for computing power and the physical infrastructure that supports AI. Lower costs can unleash more AI activities, and the low-cost competition of open-source weight models is driving down token prices, making cheaper intelligence economically viable for more applications and automated workflows.The article cites that Anthropic's latest Sonnet model claims to reduce the cost of each task by up to 30%; OpenAI's always-on agent dots, launched on September 29, can work towards user goals around the clock, potentially significantly increasing the demand for computing power. Pandl compares that chatbots primarily answer questions, while agents execute multi-step processes to achieve goals, with tasks like preparing for client meetings potentially consuming 5 to 50 times the tokens of a single chat interaction, and always-on agents may extend processing beyond a single conversation.Pandl cites Goldman Sachs' prediction that by 2030, token consumption could increase 24 times, primarily driven by agents; even with improved efficiency, if usage grows faster, the total demand for computing power may still rise. He points out that digital activities still rely on physical infrastructure that requires time to deliver, such as electricity, data centers, and GPUs, and cheaper AI can coexist with tight computing power supply, mentioning that CoreWeave recently signed new contracts at higher computing power prices. His conclusion is that cheaper intelligence and stronger agents may expand use cases and usage enough to offset efficiency gains, thereby supporting the demand for scarce computing power and benefiting its owners.

Goldman Sachs raises CoreWeave's target price to $139, maintaining a neutral rating

According to a Goldman Sachs report on August 20, CoreWeave's Q2 revenue met expectations, with an EBIT margin exceeding market consensus by 200 basis points, and the 2026 revenue guidance surpassing market expectations by 1%. Revenue backlog increased by 5% quarter-over-quarter to $104 billion, with over $25 billion in new committed orders since Q3. Active power installations rose from 1GW in Q1 to over 1.5GW, with contracted power installations reaching 4.2GW. Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target price from $121 to $139, indicating a 53% upside from the current stock price, maintaining a neutral rating.Goldman Sachs believes that CoreWeave's short-term certainty is clear: demand continues to outpace supply, pricing for new and old GPU generations remains high, and capacity is expanding as expected. The new generation of chips (Blackwell, Vera Rubin) is continuously setting new price highs, and recent A100 contract deliveries have been extended to 2029. The proportion of enterprise customers is increasing (Caterpillar, IBM, Nissan, ZF), and AI computing power demand is spreading from tech giants to the real economy. Goldman Sachs expects EBITDA to grow from $3.1 billion in 2025 to $31.3 billion in 2028. The neutral rating reflects a wait-and-see approach until software and platform services become more certain contributors to profit margins before making a more positive judgment.
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