basis

According to Jinshi, Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2026, whereas the previous forecast was that interest rates would remain unchanged this year.

Pioneer of crypto punk Adam Back stated that the market's negative view on Strategy and its preferred stock STRC lacks basis, as what Strategy is essentially doing is selling Bitcoin to pay dividends, without changing its Bitcoin reserve strategy, and is precisely "proving that it is possible to pay returns to investors through Bitcoin while reducing debt ratios."Adam Back further pointed out that Strategy is demonstrating a new financial model to the market, where Bitcoin may become an alternative asset to cash for corporate asset management and capital operations in the future, while the FUD sentiment surrounding MSTR and STRC is exaggerated. Strategy will not "go to zero," and its long-term value lies in continuously holding Bitcoin and promoting the market's understanding of Bitcoin's monetary properties.

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike have increased, fully absorbing the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch stated that if service sector inflation rises, the European Central Bank may consider raising interest rates by another 25 basis points to ensure economic safety.

According to Jinshi reports, Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, December 2026, and January 2027, previously predicting rate cuts in September, October, and December of this year.

According to Jinshi reports, the pricing of interest rate futures indicates that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 30 basis points by the end of the year, an increase of about 9 basis points compared to before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

According to Jinshi reports, the market now fully expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year.

According to Jinshi, UBS expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March and June 2027, previously anticipated to cut by 25 basis points in December 2026 and March 2027.

According to Gate market data, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and the EUR/USD exchange rate rose slightly, reported at 1.1537.

According to Jinshi reports, Dutch Bank stated that European Central Bank President Lagarde had previously hinted that June would be a "suitable time" to assess the impact of the Iran conflict and update economic forecasts. Dutch Bank expects the European Central Bank to raise its inflation forecasts and suggests a possible further tightening of policy, with a potential rate hike of 25 basis points in July. Despite the slowdown in growth in the Eurozone, policymakers' concerns about inflation still outweigh their concerns about economic activity.

PiggyBank released a detailed report on the LAB incident on June 6, stating that the protocol experienced a net withdrawal of approximately $579,000 on June 6, primarily due to a LAB token basis trade being manipulated by the market.In early May, PiggyBank purchased 142,800 locked LAB tokens (approximately $102,500) through an OTC intermediary while simultaneously opening a perpetual contract short hedge. However, market participants continuously maintained the spot price above the perpetual contract price, resulting in a deeply negative funding rate (annualized -17,000%), and the high hedging costs forced the shorts to close, resulting in a loss of approximately $476,000. The currently locked LAB tokens have a spot value of about $1 million, but due to poor liquidity and lack of hedging, they have been excluded from the NAV calculation.PiggyBank will undergo structural reforms: increasing transparency of on-chain mechanisms, strategy logic, and fund allocation will be publicly verifiable, while basis trading and funding rate arbitrage will be gradually phased out. In terms of compensation, affected users will receive USDC compensation based on actual losses, with funding sources including NAV discrepancies, future LAB sales (expected to unlock from August 14 to October 14, currently valued at approximately $1 million), and 50% of future platform revenue. All users recorded in the snapshot on June 6 are eligible for compensation.

The revenue agreement PiggyBank issued a statement acknowledging a serious error in the LAB token basis trading that took place last month. PiggyBank disclosed that the team previously purchased locked LAB tokens at a low price through OTC channels for about $100,000 (accounting for approximately 2% of the portfolio) and simultaneously shorted perpetual contracts for hedging.However, during the holding period, LAB encountered severe market manipulation, liquidity depletion, and deeply negative funding rates, leading to excessively high hedging costs. The team ultimately chose to close the short position to limit downside risk. Based on current prices, the total value of the locked LAB position is $1.35 million. However, due to the lack of liquidity in this position, PiggyBank will exclude it from the net asset value calculation until the first unlock on August 14.Although the situation is still changing and there is still potential for considerable returns, this is the "fairest and most transparent" way for users to manage liquidity. Therefore, today's net asset value will show a decline of approximately 15% in the USDC treasury, about 12% in SPYx, and about 9% in JitoSOL. A detailed report will be released next week, including follow-up processing plans. On-chain investigator ZachXBT previously publicly questioned PiggyBank, accusing it of insider control over more than 95% of the supply.

According to Jinshi reports, the OECD stated that if economic turmoil continues, central banks in various countries are expected to raise interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points.

According to Jinshi News, Rabobank still insists that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week. The bank expects the European Central Bank to significantly raise its own inflation forecasts, while economic growth may be weaker than its March forecast levels.

Driven by optimistic expectations for an extended ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. stock and oil markets continued to strengthen this week. The S&P 500 index rose for the ninth consecutive week, setting the longest winning streak since 2023; Brent crude oil stabilized around $92 per barrel. However, the cryptocurrency market failed to follow the rise of macro risk assets. Over the past week, Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $73,445, Ethereum dropped 2.5% to $2,011, Solana decreased by 2.2%, and TRX saw a decline of 5.6%, making it one of the weakest tokens among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Market analysts believe that the cooling inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs is putting pressure on coin prices.In contrast, some small and mid-cap tokens performed remarkably well. Among them, the native token of Hyperliquid, HYPE, surged 19.4% this week to around $65, becoming the biggest highlight in the market. Previously, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) CEO Jeffrey Sprecher referred to Hyperliquid as "a bigger opportunity than Nasdaq" at the Bernstein conference, further boosting market sentiment. Additionally, BNB rose 1.9% this week, XRP increased by 0.7%, and DOGE remained basically flat.On the macro level, U.S. President Trump stated that a final decision on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum is close, but he still insists on Iran abandoning its nuclear program, handing over its enriched uranium stockpile, and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants believe that due to significant differences between the two sides on key issues, the current rebound in risk assets remains relatively fragile, and any negative news regarding the Iran negotiations could trigger a reversal in market sentiment.

According to Jinshi, U.S. federal funds futures rose, with the December contract up 6 basis points.

According to Jinshi reports, market pricing shows that traders fully expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points by the end of 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, UBS Global Wealth Management expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2026 and March 2027, whereas the previous forecast was for rate cuts in September and December of this year.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Global Research expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July and September 2027, with previous predictions being rate cuts in September and October 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, Citic Securities' research report states that in April 2026, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate of 4.3% met expectations. The bank believes that the April data better reflects the current state of the U.S. job market compared to the previous two months, mainly due to a reduction in one-time factors and a higher corporate response rate. Regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, if the situation in Iran eases and falling oil prices lead to a cooling of inflation expectations, the baseline scenario for the second half of the year is a rate cut of 25 basis points once.