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Wintermute: Bitcoin needs to remain cautious before re-establishing above the 50-week moving average at $75,500

Wintermute stated that after the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party regained control of both houses of Congress, and the market began to reassess the regulatory risks faced by the AI industry. The AI trading, which was previously boosted by favorable Washington policies, has started to cool down. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates during the correction of AI assets, the tightening of liquidity and the decline in risk appetite may simultaneously exert pressure on the cryptocurrency market.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin rebounded to $81,000 last Wednesday but subsequently retraced most of its gains, dropping to a low of $73,500 on Sunday, close to the 200-day moving average of $73,000. Bitcoin's weekly close fell below the 50-week moving average of about $75,500, ending a previous streak of seven consecutive weeks above that moving average. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, marking the largest single-week outflow since June and erasing the cumulative net inflow for the year; only Wednesday recorded a net inflow of funds for the week.Meanwhile, over $1 billion in positions were liquidated in the market, with Ethereum's liquidation scale exceeding that of Bitcoin. Altcoins performed even worse than Bitcoin, with NEAR, HYPE, ENA, and LIT all dropping more than 10%. In contrast, ZEC became one of the few large-cap assets to rise against the trend, indicating that there is still some market demand for privacy-focused projects. Looking ahead, the market needs to remain cautious until Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week moving average. If Bitcoin's daily close falls below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average, the next key level to watch will be $68,000, and altcoins that previously rebounded significantly may face greater selling pressure. If Bitcoin's daily close reclaims and stabilizes at $80,000, and the spot Bitcoin ETF resumes weekly net inflows, a shift to a more positive outlook may be possible.In the short term, attention should be paid to the U.S. CPI data for October to be released on Tuesday, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month. Additionally, Cisco and Applied Materials will report earnings on Thursday, U.S. PPI data will be released on Friday, and NVIDIA is scheduled to announce its financial results on November 17. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on interest rates from December 8 to 9, with the market currently estimating a probability of about 77% for an interest rate hike.

Wintermute: Bitcoin's weekly close is below the 50-week moving average, with the next observation point at $68,000

According to market maker Wintermute in its latest market review, the S&P 500 index fell 4.4% last Thursday, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2025. Wintermute stated that after the Democratic Party secured both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, the market re-evaluated the regulatory risks in the artificial intelligence sector, and the cryptocurrency market weakened alongside risk assets, with Bitcoin dropping below $75,000. The net outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $1.28 billion in a week, the largest scale since June this year, enough to wipe out the net inflow for the year. The non-farm payrolls released on Friday recorded 165,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of about 60,000, with the probability of a rate hike in December rising from about 67% a week ago to about 77%.Wintermute noted that Bitcoin briefly rose to $81,000 on Wednesday but had fully retraced by Friday; it hit a low of about $73,500 on Sunday, slightly above the 200-day moving average of about $73,000. The weekly close was just below the 50-week moving average of $75,500, ending a streak of seven consecutive weeks above that moving average. Entering Monday, over $1 billion in positions were liquidated, with Ethereum's liquidation scale exceeding that of Bitcoin, and almost all liquidations on the Bitcoin side were long positions. Altcoins experienced larger declines, with NEAR, HYPE, ENA, and LIT dropping by double digits, while Bitcoin fell about 4% during the same period, with ZEC being one of the few large-cap tokens to rise.Wintermute stated that it remains cautious while Bitcoin is below the 50-week moving average, with the next observation level at $68,000; reclaiming $80,000 would change this view. The institution mentioned that if the daily close is below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average, it could open up space towards $68,000; if the daily closes above $80,000 and the spot Bitcoin ETF records a net inflow for a week, its stance would turn positive. Wintermute pointed out that the October CPI to be released on Tuesday is the first recent test, with core CPI expected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month; the Federal Reserve will meet from December 8 to 9, with the current probability of a rate hike at about 77%.

BIT Securities launches a dollar-cost averaging feature for U.S. stocks, further improving the diversified investment ecosystem

BIT Securities announced the launch of a dollar-cost averaging feature for U.S. stocks starting today, covering all stocks and ETFs in the U.S. market. Users only need to set the investment amount (starting from a minimum of US$10) and the period (daily, weekly, or monthly), and the system will automatically buy according to the plan without the need to place manual orders each time. Users can activate the plan with one click when viewing individual stock details or the "Assets" page, and can adjust, pause, or terminate it at any time; additionally, the dollar-cost averaging plan can also choose to use margin funds for purchases.Compared to a one-time investment, dollar-cost averaging spreads the investment over different time points, helping to average out the holding costs and reduce timing pressure.Currently, BIT Securities supports trading in U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, and covers various investment methods including U.S. stock options, margin trading, and stock dollar-cost averaging. Elio Cui, the head of BIT Securities, stated: "We always hope that users with different investment styles can find suitable tools at BIT. The essence of dollar-cost averaging is long-term investment, which aligns with the group's long-termism philosophy. We hope to accompany users in combating volatility with discipline and growing together with quality assets."BIT Securities is also launching new user benefits: new account holders can enjoy commission-free trading for U.S. stocks, a US$100 platform fee rebate card, and a real-time market data card, with tasks completed earning rewards worth up to US$320; a transfer incentive campaign is also ongoing, with rewards worth up to US$300. Details of the activities are subject to BIT's official announcements.Risk Warning: Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee profits and is not necessarily superior to other investment methods. Investors should formulate investment plans based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance.

Analysis: Bitcoin has broken the trend pattern before the last three U.S. midterm elections, with the current price 5.2% above the 200-day moving average

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's market performance before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has broken the trend observed in the previous three elections. As of November 3, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $76,990, about 5.2% higher than the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $73,169, indicating that its long-term trend remains above the average.In contrast, during the U.S. midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin's price was approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% below the 200-day average, respectively, all during bear market phases. The report noted that although Bitcoin broke through $126,000 in October 2025, the current bear market has seen relatively shallow declines, mainly concentrated in January and February of this year.Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, stated that historical data shows Bitcoin typically exhibits volatility or slight weakness in the initial months following midterm elections, but has achieved gains in the subsequent 12 months. However, short-term trends may still be influenced by election results, ETF fund flows, U.S. employment data, and geopolitical risks.Additionally, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index BVIV has broken through a descending triangle pattern, indicating an increase in market expectations for short-term volatility.
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