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CITIC Construction Investment: Although the logic of AI computing power remains optimistic, volatility has intensified; it is recommended to be cautious in chasing high prices

CITIC Construction Investment Research Report points out that the following factors will determine the trend of the third quarter market: In terms of fundamentals, AI computing power remains at a high level of prosperity, with mid-year performance and overseas financial reports worth paying attention to. At the same time, since April, under pressure from the macro economy, the economic measures from the Politburo meeting in July are quite important; In terms of liquidity, external disturbances have increased, while internal conditions remain neutral; In terms of risk appetite, geopolitical events and the listing of industry giants will cause short-term fluctuations in the market. Considering the global tech stock correlation effect, major overseas computing powers such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States also need to be continuously monitored.In terms of industry allocation, although the logic of AI computing power remains unchanged, volatility has intensified. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and to position during pullbacks; lithium batteries are expected to welcome a peak season, and energy storage demand continues to warm up, while new energy presents opportunities for phased valuation recovery; dividends are expected to rebound from oversold conditions, with relatively high cost-performance ratios. Key areas to focus on: banks, coal, public utilities, AI, optical modules, storage, chips, industrial metals, lithium battery materials (VC), etc.

JPMorgan: Bitcoin mining is becoming increasingly sensitive to price fluctuations, with more miners approaching the breakeven point

According to CoinDesk, JPMorgan's latest report indicates that as more miners operate close to breakeven, the Bitcoin mining network is showing a higher sensitivity to price changes, with the response of hash rate and mining difficulty to price fluctuations significantly enhanced. The analysis shows that the "elasticity coefficient" of mining difficulty relative to Bitcoin price changes has risen to 0.62 over the past six months, indicating that the hash rate is responding more quickly to market changes.Analysts state that Bitcoin prices have been below production costs for five consecutive months, with approximately 20% of miners currently in a loss-making position. Under profit pressure, publicly listed mining companies have increased their Bitcoin selling scale, with sales exceeding 32,000 BTC in the first quarter alone, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2025. As some high-cost mining machines shut down, the network hash rate declines, and mining difficulty adjusts accordingly.JPMorgan expects that as long as Bitcoin remains below the production cost of about $78,000, the high sensitivity of mining to price fluctuations will continue to exist. At the same time, some mining companies are turning to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing businesses to seek more stable sources of income.
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