# 1. Selected Hot News

1. Federal Reserve: Oil Price Rebound Intensifies Inflation Concerns, Officials Retain Option for Further Rate Hikes

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated on October 8 that while there is room to pause rate hikes at the October meeting, further tightening of monetary policy is still necessary if inflation remains above target. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 197,000, indicating that the labor market still has some resilience. Meanwhile, the rapid rebound in oil prices has again increased the uncertainty of inflation retreating.

Market Impact: The U.S. economy has not shown significant employment deterioration, but persistently high energy prices may limit the Federal Reserve's policy space. For U.S. stocks, even if Treasury yields briefly decline, the market still needs to reassess future interest rate levels and corporate financing costs. Going forward, U.S. inflation data and consumer inflation expectations will be important bases for judging policy direction.

2. International Crude Oil: Dual Impact of Middle East Situation and U.S. Hurricane, Brent Rises 4.1%

International oil prices surged on October 8, with Brent crude futures closing at $104.28 per barrel, up 4.1%; WTI crude futures rose 3.6%, closing at $91.49 per barrel. The shipping security risks in the Middle East have escalated again, while Hurricane Isaias approaches the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, forcing some offshore oil and gas production facilities to suspend operations. Reports indicate that the related production cuts reached approximately 1.3 million barrels per day at one point. Trump later stated that the U.S. would not launch military strikes against Iran before the midterm elections in November, causing oil prices to retreat from their intraday highs.

Market Impact: Current oil prices face supply shocks from geopolitical tensions and extreme weather, meaning that even if the situation in the Middle East temporarily eases, the recovery speed of domestic production in the U.S. may still affect short-term prices. High oil prices benefit energy producers but increase costs for airlines, transportation, and some manufacturing sectors, raising market concerns about inflation again.

3. AI Industry: OpenAI Revenue Expectations Questioned, Semiconductor Sector Drops 3.4%

On October 8, the market focused on a report from the Financial Times regarding OpenAI's revenue forecasts, prompting investors to reassess the revenue scale and growth realization capabilities of AI companies. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 3.4% that day, with Nvidia down 2.91%, Broadcom down about 4.4%, and Oracle down about 5.5%. The market had already begun to worry that large AI infrastructure projects increasingly rely on debt financing, and the new changes in revenue expectations further amplified valuation pressures.

Market Impact: The core controversy in the AI industry is shifting from "Can demand for computing power continue to grow?" to "Can end customers' revenues support massive capital expenditures?" It is necessary to distinguish between the actual revenues of model companies, future revenue forecasts, capital expenditures of cloud service providers, and confirmed orders from chip suppliers. If end commercialization revenue growth lags behind infrastructure investment, the market may continue to downgrade the valuation premiums of some AI assets.

# 2. Market Review

1. Commodity and Forex Performance

Variety
Reference Price
Data Source

|-------------|---------------|-------------| | Spot Gold | $4,126.78/oz | U.S. trading session on October 8 | | Spot Silver | $58.98/oz | U.S. trading session on October 8 | | WTI Crude Oil | $91.49/barrel | Futures settlement on October 8 | | Brent Crude Oil | $104.28/barrel | Futures settlement on October 8 | | U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield | Approximately 5.23% | U.S. market close on October 8 |

Gold rebounded about 0.4% on October 8, after facing pressure from a strong dollar and rising long-term interest rates. Crude oil became the most volatile major asset of the day, with Brent crude rising over 4% in a single day. U.S. Treasuries rebounded after strong demand in the 30-year Treasury auction, with the 10-year yield retreating from intraday highs to about 5.23%, but this did not change the overall downward trend of tech stocks.

2. Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately 81,901.53 USDT; corresponding BTC/USD reference price $81,716.62, down 1.87% in 24 hours.
• ETH: Approximately 2,473.15 USDT; corresponding ETH/USD reference price $2,473.18, down 3.74% in 24 hours.
• Total cryptocurrency market cap: CoinGecko query page shows approximately $2.89 trillion, down about 1.54% in 24 hours; due to the lack of independent accurate update time, this data is only for asynchronous reference.

BTC and ETH data are from Bitget, updated at 06:36:43 and 06:34:17 Beijing time on October 9, respectively. The 24-hour price change is based on the corresponding USD reference price and should not be directly viewed as the precise change of the USDT trading pair. These belong to historical market snapshots and are not considered current real-time transaction quotes.

BTC｜Liquidation Zone Observation

This time, we were unable to obtain CoinGlass liquidation map data that meets timeliness requirements and can verify strength and price ranges, so we do not fill in unverified potential liquidation areas for shorts above and longs below. Previously, BTC briefly fell to around $80,337, but it is not possible to determine whether there is concentrated liquidation based solely on the temporary low.

ETH｜Liquidation Zone Observation

ETH's decline was greater than BTC's, indicating that ETH faced more significant price pressure during this round of adjustment. However, the latest liquidation map data is missing, making it temporarily impossible to determine the main leverage liquidation concentration zones above and below ETH, nor can ordinary price support levels be directly referred to as liquidation zones.

Institutional Holding Cost｜BTC

Strategy disclosed on October 5 that as of October 4, it held 848,000 BTC, with a cumulative purchase cost of approximately $63.97 billion, and an average cost of about $75,440.70. Based on the BTC/USD reference price of $81,716.62 at 06:36:43 Beijing time on October 9, BTC is approximately 8.32% higher than its average cost. This represents a price difference under a specified historical snapshot, not real-time floating profit; the comprehensive holding cost of the U.S. spot BTC ETF has not obtained a verifiable latest estimate, so it is not filled in.

Market Summary

BTC's retreat further narrowed its reference premium relative to Strategy's average holding cost, while ETH's decline was relatively larger. Next, attention should be paid to whether BTC can stabilize above the previous price area of about $80,000, and whether subsequent liquidation maps show that this area is concentrated with leverage position risks, but currently, it cannot be determined that the two have formed a resonance.

3. Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

Index
Closing on October 8
Change

|-----------|-----------|--------| | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,231.64 | +0.10% | | S&P 500 Index | 7,765.36 | -0.47% | | Nasdaq Composite Index | 27,193.34 | -1.25% |

On October 8, there was a significant divergence in U.S. stocks, with the Dow rising slightly, the S&P 500 declining for the second consecutive trading day, and the Nasdaq recording a decline of about 1.25%. Semiconductor and AI infrastructure-related stocks were the main drag. Notably, despite the decline in the S&P 500 index, about two-thirds of its constituent stocks rose that day, indicating that the weakness in the index was mainly concentrated in high-weight tech companies rather than a synchronous decline across all sectors.

4. Performance of the Seven Tech Giants

Company
Stock Code
Closing Price (USD)
Change

|----------|-------|--------|--------| | Nvidia | NVDA | 230.55 | -2.91% | | Apple | AAPL | 340.43 | +1.12% | | Microsoft | MSFT | 522.69 | -1.34% | | Alphabet | GOOGL | 348.30 | -0.63% | | Amazon | AMZN | 254.12 | -2.23% | | Meta | META | 720.98 | -0.05% | | Tesla | TSLA | 375.05 | -0.73% |

Among the seven tech giants, 1 rose and 6 fell. Apple rose against the trend by 1.12%, while Nvidia fell 2.91%, and Amazon fell 2.23%, becoming two of the companies with larger declines. The divergence within large tech stocks reflects that the market is reassessing different companies' AI capital expenditures, actual profit growth, and future cash flow realization capabilities.

5. Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductors and AI Infrastructure: Revenue realization concerns triggered a collective pullback. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 3.4%, with Nvidia down 2.91%, Broadcom down about 4.4%, and Oracle down about 5.5%. Even with Samsung Electronics announcing strong quarterly profit expectations and TSMC's September sales showing significant year-on-year growth, it failed to stop the decline of AI-related stocks, indicating that the market is becoming more sensitive to the gap between growth expectations and actual profits.

Energy Sector: Rising oil prices boosted upstream companies. International crude oil prices surged rapidly, with Chevron (CVX) rising about 3.1% that day. Oil and gas producers directly benefit from higher sales prices, but whether this rise can continue still depends on the duration of hurricane-related production shutdowns and the recovery of oil transportation in the Middle East.

Consumer and Dining: Individual stock events drove a counter-trend rise. PepsiCo (PEP) rose about 3.7% after announcing third-quarter results, despite the company lowering its profit growth expectations; the market still focused on its North American business improvement and cost-cutting plans. Chipotle (CMG) rose about 6.2% amid rumors of a potential acquisition involving Starbucks, although the related transaction has not been formally confirmed.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

1. Nvidia (NVDA): Concerns Over AI Commercialization Impact Valuation, Stock Price Falls 2.91%

Event Overview: Nvidia closed at $230.55 on October 8, down 2.91%. The market reassessed revenue growth expectations for model companies like OpenAI and the financing costs that large tech companies bear for AI data centers and chip procurement. The semiconductor sector overall fell about 3.4%.

Market Interpretation: Nvidia's chip orders and the final revenues of model companies are not the same, but there is a long-term transmission relationship between the two. If AI applications cannot generate sufficient commercial revenue, data center customers may reduce the growth rate of capital expenditures in the future. The current market has not confirmed a reduction in Nvidia's orders but is reassessing the sustainability of industry growth and valuation levels.

Investment Insight: Key changes to observe going forward include whether large cloud service providers adjust their capital expenditure guidance, whether Nvidia's confirmed orders and gross margins change, and whether the revenues and inference costs of AI model companies can support continued expansion of computing power procurement. Only if these indicators actually deteriorate can the current market concerns be further validated.

2. Broadcom (AVGO): Rising Financing Risks for AI Chips, Stock Price Falls About 4.4%

Event Overview: Broadcom fell about 4.4% on October 8. Prior news about technology companies raising large-scale debt funding to support AI infrastructure investments drew market attention, while reports related to OpenAI's revenue expectations further increased investors' concerns about the return cycle of AI projects.

Market Interpretation: Broadcom has significant business in custom AI chips and network infrastructure, and its revenue is closely related to the capital expenditure plans of large customers. Changes in customer financing capabilities may affect the pace of future order fulfillment, but doubts about financing plans do not imply that existing contracts have been canceled.

Investment Insights: Focus should be on tracking revenue from custom AI chip business, core customer investment guidance, and order delivery status. More important than merely discussing the market size of AI chips is assessing whether customers can continue to pay for large-scale computing infrastructure costs, and whether Broadcom can convert demand into gross profit and free cash flow.

3. PepsiCo (PEP): Revenue Growth but Downgraded Profit Outlook, Cost Control Becomes Key

Event Overview: PepsiCo announced its third-quarter results on October 8, with revenue of approximately $25.27 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.34. Despite better-than-expected performance, the company downgraded its profit growth outlook due to cost pressures in North America and consumer demand. The stock price rose about 3.7% on the same day.

Market Interpretation: PepsiCo's situation shows that even if corporate revenue continues to grow, inflation may still erode profits through raw materials, transportation, and marketing costs. The market's rise that day reflects investors' somewhat positive evaluation of business improvements and cost-cutting measures, but it cannot be concluded that profit pressures have disappeared.

Investment Insights: Subsequent attention should be paid to the recovery of sales in North American beverages and food business, the balance between price increases and cost control, and whether profit margins can improve quarter by quarter. If revenue growth primarily relies on price increases rather than sales recovery, the sustainability of profit improvement remains to be verified.

### Market and Project Dynamics

1. New Progress in Tokenization of US Stocks: Securitize officially launched Securitize Stocks on October 8, providing tokenized securities corresponding 1:1 with real US listed company stocks on the Solana network. Initially covering companies like Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla, it plans to further integrate with NYSE and OKXICE related trading facilities. The services launched at this stage and the trading venues planned for future opening need to be distinguished.

2. Design of Tokenized Securities: Securitize stated that the relevant tokens are backed by real stocks held by regulated brokers and provide corresponding economic rights to qualified investors. Its value lies in attempting to combine the legal rights of traditional stocks with blockchain settlement, rather than just issuing on-chain synthetic assets that track stock prices.

3. US Crypto Regulation: The CFTC previously initiated a federal regulatory rule consultation on leveraged and financed crypto asset trading, which is still in the policy-making stage. For trading platforms, future rules may affect the entry of leveraged products, customer protection requirements, and the competitive landscape across markets.

4. Corporate BTC Holdings: Strategy has recently disclosed holdings of 848,000 BTC as of October 4. As BTC prices fell to around $82,000, the distance between the company's holding cost and the coin price has narrowed, but there has been no new official disclosure proving that the company continued to purchase BTC on October 8.

5. Stablecoins and Securities Settlement: The tokenized stock business launched by Securitize supports settlement using USDC, further expanding the application of stablecoins in securities trading scenarios. However, the scope of settlement, capital scale, and trading continuity still need to be verified by subsequent actual operating data, and the launch of the product cannot be directly equated with large-scale adoption.

### Today's Market Calendar

Date: October 9, 2026, Beijing Time. Attention level is assessed by the editor.
Beijing Time
Country/Region
Event
Market Attention Level

|--------------|----|-------------------|-------| | October 9, 22:00 | United States | University of Michigan October Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary | ★★★★★ | | October 9, 22:00 | United States | University of Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations Survey | ★★★★★ | | October 10, 01:00 | United States | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | ★★★ |

Key Event Outlook: Tonight's University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data will be an important observation window. With crude oil prices rising again, if consumer inflation expectations for the coming year further increase, it may reinforce the market's judgment that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain high interest rates. Meanwhile, AI-related companies are facing dual challenges of revenue realization and financing costs, and whether tech stocks can stabilize still depends on new evidence of profits and capital expenditures.

Institutional View: WisdomTree strategist Nitesh Shah pointed out in the October 8 gold market commentary that the US debt issue may increase investor demand for non-sovereign currency assets like gold. This means that although high interest rates put pressure on gold, fiscal and debt risks may still bring allocation demand, with both forces jointly influencing precious metal pricing.

Disclaimer: This report is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Some crypto market data are historical snapshots with clearly marked times, and speculative fillings for unverified real-time data in clearing areas and ETF comprehensive costs have not been made.