Wintermute: Bitcoin faces its first test after breaking through, with $82,500 becoming a key observation level

Wintermute posted that, on the macro front, risk assets continued to rise last week. Even with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5%, a high not seen since 2007, there was no significant risk-averse sentiment in the market. Crypto assets led the way, with altcoins rising approximately 5%, followed closely by BTC, and the Nasdaq also recorded gains, while long-term U.S. Treasuries performed the weakest.

The report believes that oil prices will be a key factor influencing the interest rate hike expectations for October. Currently, oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude prices nearing $103 per barrel. If oil prices continue to stay around or above $100 per barrel, market expectations for another rate hike in October may remain high, at which point the core issue will shift to whether risk assets can absorb further rate hikes in the short term while bonds remain under pressure.

In the crypto market, BTC last week first stood above the 50-week moving average on a weekly basis, with the current level of $82,500 being the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range, which is also a key position to watch this week; if this level can stabilize, it may become the foundation for the previous breakout; otherwise, a drop below this level will reignite concerns about the validity of the breakout. Meanwhile, BTC's market share has increased, the breadth of altcoin gains is at a relatively high level, and institutional options trading continues to increase with low Delta bullish options and call spreads being added for year-end positioning.