Analysis: The MVRV of long-term Bitcoin holders has risen to 1.35, exiting the shallow pressure zone

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the adjusted long-term holder (LTH) MVRV metric has recovered from a shallow pressure zone and is currently back in a profitable state. Data shows that the adjusted MVRV for the long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years continued to compress and remained above 1 in April this year. An MVRV of 1 represents the overall breakeven line for this group, with values above 1 indicating unrealized profits and below 1 indicating unrealized losses.

Between June and August, this metric fell below 1 five times, reaching a low of approximately 0.94 on June 30, when the BTC price was around $58,500, while the group's realized price benchmark was about $62,000, which is about 6% below the breakeven line. However, Zizcrypto noted that the duration and magnitude of this pressure were limited, with the metric remaining close to 1 and not entering the deep loss phase for long-term holders seen in 2019 and during 2022-2023. As of September 27, the adjusted LTH MVRV has recovered to about 1.35, with the BTC price around $84,500, while the long-term holders' realized price is about $62,700, indicating that the spot price is approximately 35% higher than this cost basis. The long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years has emerged from a shallow pressure phase below 1 and re-entered an overall profitable state, resembling a recovery after a healthy adjustment rather than a deep or prolonged loss cycle.