Bitget UEX Daily Report｜The U.S. resumes oil sanctions against Iran and begins military strikes, driving a significant one-day surge in oil prices; the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting are set to be released, with Warsh's policy path attracting attention (July 8, 2026)

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are set to be released tonight, with new Chairman Warsh's policy path drawing significant market attention.

• The June FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with a hawkish statement emphasizing robust economic conditions and inflation still above the 2% target, and possibly removing the bias towards easing;
• The first complete meeting minutes since new Chairman Kevin Warsh took office will be released at 2:00 AM (UTC+8) on July 9, with the market analyzing his latest statements on inflation, employment, and long-term policy framework;
• Previously, the market priced in a 29% probability of a rate hike in July, but focus has shifted to the year-end path, with institutions generally believing the minutes may reinforce a "data-dependent" stance. Market Impact: Short-term U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may find support, stock market volatility may increase, and further delays in rate cut expectations could increase pressure on growth stocks, but clear neutral signals may alleviate some uncertainty.

International Commodities

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalate, causing a significant rise in oil prices, while gold and silver come under pressure.

• Actions by the U.S. Central Command and the ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate, with shipping risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz rising, driving oil prices up sharply in a single day;
• WTI and Brent crude oil rose approximately 5.8% and 5.9% respectively in 24 hours, reflecting concerns over supply disruptions and safe-haven buying;
• Spot gold and silver fell simultaneously, compounded by a strengthening dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields, putting dual pressure on precious metals. Market Impact: Oil prices are likely to remain strong in the short term, but EIA inventory accumulation expectations may limit upside potential; precious metals may experience short-term technical corrections, but still possess inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes in the long term, with institutions suggesting attention to the transmission of geopolitical developments on energy inflation.

Macroeconomic Policy

Service PMI stabilizes with a slight decline, inflation and policy path become the main themes for the market in July.

• The June ISM Services PMI recorded 54.0, slightly lower than the previous value but still in the expansion range, indicating that the U.S. economy remains resilient;
• Market focus has fully shifted to tonight's release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes and subsequent inflation data, with the establishment of Warsh's new framework review task force also drawing attention;
• Geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices may create upward pressure on core inflation through energy channels, complicating policy formulation. Market Impact: Policy uncertainty will dominate pricing in the short term, increasing volatility in risk assets; if the minutes signal a hawkish stance, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries may strengthen further, putting greater pressure on high-valuation sectors of the stock market.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Updates)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4110/ounce, 24h +0.08%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $60.039/ounce, 24h +0.11%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $71.94/barrel, 24h +2.13%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $75.66/barrel, 24h +2.02%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.14, 24h +0.05%

Driving Factors Analysis: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (U.S.-Iran actions and Iran-Israel conflict) are the core variables in the current market, directly driving up oil risk premiums and safe-haven demand, while also strengthening dollar and U.S. Treasury yield support through energy inflation expectations, leading to pressure on both gold and silver. The dollar index rose to around 101.17, reflecting a return of funds to U.S. Treasury assets in an uncertain environment. Institutional consensus suggests that oil prices may overshoot in the short term due to geopolitical drivers, but global inventory accumulation and slowing demand will limit medium to long-term gains; precious metals face a "strong dollar + high yields" double whammy, with short-term technical weakness, but if geopolitical tensions ease or the Fed signals a dovish stance, gold may rebound quickly. The asset linkage logic is clear: oil rises → inflation worries → delayed rate cut expectations → DXY strengthens → gold and silver under pressure, with risk appetite and safe-haven demand coexisting in the short term, and volatility expected to remain high.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $63595, +0.72%
• ETH: Approximately $1780, +0.97%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.26 trillion, +1%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of approximately $306 million in 24h, with long positions liquidated at approximately $207 million
• BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is approximately $63,505, with a concentration of short liquidations in the $64,100--$64,900 area above; if the price breaks through this range, it may trigger concentrated stop-losses for shorts, pushing the market higher. A significant number of long liquidations are clustered around $62,300--$63,200; if the price falls below the current support area, it may trigger a chain liquidation of longs, increasing short-term downward pressure.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of approximately $266 million yesterday, with a current 24h dynamic outflow of $33 million.

Driving Factors Analysis: Amid dual uncertainties from geopolitics and the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes, BTC and ETH rebounded slightly, showing market resilience. Continuous inflows into ETFs (with positive inflows recorded this week) provide important support for spot prices, and institutional willingness to enter has not significantly weakened due to short-term volatility. The scale of leveraged liquidations has significantly shrunk from previous peaks, indicating that high-risk positions have been partially cleared, and the market has entered a relatively healthy adjustment phase. Technically, BTC found support around $63,000, while ETH was boosted by Vitalik Buterin's latest "Lean Ethereum" roadmap news. The overall trend is slightly neutral to bullish, but BTC appears more stable relative to ETH, which may gain additional attention due to long-term upgrade narratives. Institutional consensus suggests that if the minutes tonight do not release strong hawkish signals, risk assets including cryptocurrencies are likely to continue rebounding; conversely, caution is warranted for short-term pullback pressures. The macro environment remains the primary driver, with ETF fund flows and leveraged health being key short-term observation indicators.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: 52925.15 (-0.25%), continuous pullback from high levels
• S&P 500: 7503.85 (-0.45%), significant drag from tech sector
• Nasdaq: 25818.69 (-1.16%), semiconductor sector leads decline

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $195.55 (+0.37%)
• AAPL: $312.80 (+1.35%)
• MSFT: $386.74 (-0.96%)
• GOOGL: $366.46 (+1.82%)
• AMZN: $244.16 (+0.61%)
• META: $600.29 (+2.98%)
• TSLA: $419.77 (+6.69%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Tech giants generally followed the Nasdaq's pullback, with notable sector differentiation. Semiconductor and AI-related stocks (MU, AMD, etc.) saw significant declines, primarily due to market skepticism about the sustainability of hyperscaler AI capital expenditures and news of local AI chip advancements like China's DeepSeek; NVDA, however, showed relative resilience with a slight increase. Traditional mega caps like AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL experienced slight pullbacks, reflecting the general pressure on growth stocks in a high-yield and uncertain policy environment. TSLA's larger decline may be related to company-specific events and a decrease in macro risk appetite. M&A highlights (CRNX being acquired by Vertex) provided emotional support for biotech but failed to reverse the overall weakness in tech stocks. Institutional views emphasize that the AI theme faces short-term valuation digestion pressure and requires more actual adoption data and profit realization support; under the dual variables of geopolitics and the Fed minutes, the market is cautious in the short term, suggesting attention to fundamentally strong stocks with robust cash flows for differentiation opportunities.

Sector Movement Observation

Biotechnology Sector saw a significant rise (CRNX drove notable sector movement)

• Representative Stock: CRNX +98.7%
• Driving Factors: Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced the acquisition of CRNX for approximately $85 per share, totaling about $8.8-10 billion, with the deal expected to close in Q3 2026. The market views this as a signal of the reactivation of the biotech M&A wave, with CRNX receiving a substantial premium, significantly improving sector sentiment.

Semiconductor Sector experienced a significant pullback

• Representative Stocks: AMD -6.5%, MU -4.7%, INTC -9.7%
• Driving Factors: Investors are concerned about the rationality of rapid growth in AI infrastructure capital expenditures, while news of local AI chip advancements like China's DeepSeek has raised competition concerns, putting significant pressure on sector valuations. NVDA's slight resilience did not reverse the overall weakness.

III. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX) - Core Event of Vertex Acquisition

Event Overview: On July 7, Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced the cash acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX) for approximately $85 per share, totaling about $8.8-10 billion. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2026. Following the announcement, CRNX's stock price surged nearly 99% in pre-market and after-hours trading, becoming one of the standout stocks in the U.S. market that day. CRNX focuses on endocrine and rare diseases, with significant synergy potential with Vertex's existing commercialization capabilities. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe this transaction will create Vertex's "fifth commercial pillar," significantly expanding its commercialization layout in rare and endocrine diseases, aligning with Vertex's long-term focus on specialty drugs. Analysts point out that the acquisition price reflects recognition of CRNX's pipeline value and also indicates the current activity level in the biotech M&A market for quality assets. Vertex's stock price saw a slight pullback, primarily reflecting concerns about integration costs and short-term dilution, but the long-term synergy effects are viewed positively by the market. Investment Insights: CRNX shareholders have received substantial returns through the premium, and it is advisable to continue monitoring the progress of the transaction and regulatory approvals; for Vertex, this move may open a new window for external growth, warranting tracking of subsequent pipeline integration and performance contributions.

2. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) - Integration Outlook After Strategic Acquisition

Event Overview: As the acquirer, Vertex's stock price fell slightly by about 0.2% after announcing the acquisition of CRNX. The transaction will add endocrine and rare disease pipelines to Vertex, expected to significantly enhance its commercialization product matrix breadth. Market Interpretation: Wall Street analysts generally give positive evaluations, believing that CRNX's pipeline complements Vertex's existing capabilities well, helping to create a more balanced revenue structure and reduce reliance on a single product. Some institutions have raised VRTX's long-term target price, emphasizing the strategic significance of the "fifth pillar." However, the market is cautious in the short term regarding integration execution and potential R&D investments. Investment Insights: VRTX is suitable for long-term investors, focusing on the first performance guidance after the Q3 transaction completion; the successful acquisition may become a new growth engine for 2026-2027.

3. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - Sector Representative Under AI Capital Expenditure Concerns

Event Overview: On July 7, semiconductor stocks including AMD experienced significant pullbacks, with AMD's single-day decline exceeding 6%, dragging down the Nasdaq's performance. The market is concerned about the slowing growth rate of hyperscaler AI capital expenditures and intensified competition from local AI chips in China. Market Interpretation: Although Nvidia saw a slight increase, the overall sector pressure reflects a cautious reassessment of the AI theme in a high-valuation environment. Institutional views suggest that AMD remains competitive in the data center and AI accelerator card sectors, but more orders and gross margin data are needed in the short term to validate growth sustainability. Progress from local players like DeepSeek is seen as a long-term competitive signal rather than an immediate threat. Investment Insights: AMD is suitable for attention to Q2 earnings reports and AI-related product updates, and it is recommended to combine with leading companies like NVDA for portfolio allocation to control exposure to a single sector.

IV. Market & Project Dynamics

1. The New Hampshire Business Finance Authority (BFA) is scheduled to hold a public hearing on Wednesday regarding the issuance of $100 million in Bitcoin-backed bonds. The plan was approved by the BFA in November 2025 and requires final approval from the governor and a five-member executive council. The bonds are secured by collateral from private lender CleanSpark, with no recourse to state funds or taxpayers. Moody's assigned a preliminary Ba2 rating (speculative grade) to the bonds in March.

2. The U.S. has launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran and revoked a waiver allowing it to sell oil globally, further jeopardizing peace agreements between the two sides after frequent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

3. In June, on-chain tokenized stock trading volume reached $3.86 billion, a 145% month-over-month increase, setting a historical high, primarily driven by the SpaceX IPO. SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history (approximately $75 billion) in June, with tokenized stock trading volume reaching $1.19 billion, accounting for 31% of the total tokenized stock trading volume for the month.

4. Jack Mallers' Strike launched a new Bitcoin mortgage product, allowing borrowers to avoid forced liquidation regardless of how low Bitcoin prices drop, as long as they continue to make payments. Strike founder Mallers stated, "No additional margin, no price liquidation, no matter how much Bitcoin drops, your Bitcoin will not be moved."

5. According to Bloomberg, quantum computing is seen as a potential new threat that could crack the cryptographic algorithms of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Quantum computers are expected to far exceed traditional computers in decrypting complex mathematical problems, theoretically allowing them to deduce private keys from public keys, thereby stealing on-chain assets. Early address formats and wallets that reuse addresses are at the highest risk, with Galaxy Digital estimating that about 34% of circulating Bitcoin, valued at approximately $470 billion, could become targets for quantum attacks in the future.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Time Country/Region Data Name Market Attention Level

|----------------------------|----|-------------|-------| | 14:00 ET (July 9, 02:00, UTC+8) | U.S. | FOMC June Meeting Minutes | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

July 8 (Wednesday)

1. U.S. May wholesale sales month-on-month at 22:00, EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 3 at 22:30.

July 9 (Thursday)

1. Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes released at 2:00 AM, discussing interest rate paths and inflation responses; ★★★★★
2. New York Fed President Williams speaks at 21:00;
3. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4 released at 20:30.

July 10 (Friday)

1. Dallas Fed President Logan speaks at 01:30;
2. SK Hynix ADR is tentatively scheduled to list on Nasdaq on July 10 ★★★★

This week's core themes in the U.S. stock market revolve around the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, speeches by Fed officials, and SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, with expected increased market volatility.

Institutional Views

According to the latest views from investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley: the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is currently the main disruptive variable, and rising oil prices may create upward pressure on U.S. inflation through energy channels, complicating the policy tasks of new Fed Chairman Warsh. After taking office, Warsh emphasized data dependence and framework review, and the June minutes may continue a hawkish tone but will not be overly aggressive; the market needs to be wary of "higher for longer" interest rate expectations suppressing growth stocks and risk assets. The stock market faces dual tests from geopolitical premiums and AI valuations in the short term, but the biotech M&A wave and continuous inflows into crypto ETFs provide structural support. Precious metals are under short-term pressure in a strong dollar and high yield environment, while oil is likely to overshoot and then correct under risk premium dominance. The crypto market shows strong resilience, with institutions believing that if the minutes signal a neutral to dovish stance, BTC and ETH are likely to continue rebounding; conversely, attention should be paid to the key support level of $63,000. Overall, it is recommended to remain cautious in the short term, prioritizing allocation to quality assets with robust cash flows and clear fundamentals, waiting for a clear direction after the minutes are released.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.