Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Broadcom and Apple extend chip cooperation until 2031; US tech stocks rebound, Dow hits record; Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week for fundraising dividends
Bitget UEX Daily Report# 1. Hot News
Federal Reserve Dynamics
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Forward Guidance Remains a Valuable Tool, Needs Flexible Use
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated at a meeting in Rome that if used properly, forward guidance can still effectively accelerate the transmission of monetary policy, describing it as "more art than science." He acknowledged that it has sometimes been applied too rigidly in the past but emphasized that its value should not be completely denied. Previously, newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh had promised to reduce reliance on forward guidance, shifting towards more data-driven policy adjustments.
Key Points: 1. Forward guidance helped tighten financial conditions in advance during the pandemic; 2. Rigid use has limited policy space; 3. It is still viewed as a useful tool. Market Impact: The market interprets this as a divergence in communication strategies within the Federal Reserve, but it does not change the "data-dependent" policy path in the short term, and fluctuations in the dollar and interest rate-sensitive assets are expected to be limited.
International Commodities
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983
Data from the U.S. Department of Energy shows that as of the week ending July 3, crude oil stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 6.2 million barrels to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1983. The release agreement following the related conflict has led to a continuous decline in inventory, and total U.S. oil stocks have also fallen to the lowest level since 1984.
Market Impact: Low inventory provides some support for oil prices, but the global supply-demand pattern and expectations of geopolitical easing still dominate short-term trends, with oil prices likely to maintain range-bound fluctuations.
Macroeconomic Events
Trump Promotes "Trump Account" Plan, Optimistic About Market Prospects
Trump stated during the launch ceremony for the newborn investment account that this account will provide significant financial advantages when children turn 18, claiming that "the market will soar," while criticizing short-selling behavior. CFTC data shows that as of June 30, net long positions in dollars rose to nearly $40 billion, the highest level since 2015.
Market Impact: The political narrative temporarily boosts risk appetite, but actual policy implementation still needs observation; high dollar long positions reflect interest rate expectations and economic resilience, but weakening employment data may limit further upside.
# 2. Market Review
Commodity & Forex Performance
- Spot Gold: $4,148/ounce, down about 0.56% in 24h
- Spot Silver: $61.45/ounce, down about 1.0% in 24h
- WTI Crude Oil: $68.88/barrel, up 0.48% in 24h
- Brent Crude Oil: Around $72.3/barrel, up 0.44% in 24h
- Dollar Index (DXY): 100.879 points, up about 0.02% in 24h
Driving Factors Analysis: Gold's slight retreat is mainly influenced by a stable dollar and a rebound in risk assets, while silver's larger decline reflects its high elasticity characteristics. Oil prices have balanced between low SPR levels and geopolitical easing, with short-term supply-demand battles intensifying. Dollar long positions are high, but recent weak employment data may limit further upward momentum. Inter-asset linkage shows that a warming risk appetite puts pressure on precious metals, with gold likely fluctuating in the $4,100-$4,200 range, while oil prices need to pay attention to inventory data and geopolitical developments.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Approximately $63,900, +0.03%
- ETH: Approximately $1,790, -0.34%
- Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.28 trillion, +1.3%
- Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of about $500 million in 24h, with short liquidations around $300 million
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is about $63,919, with recent major short liquidations concentrated in the $64,800-$65,500 range. If the price continues to rise and breaks through this range, it may trigger short stop-losses, pushing the market further up. Below, around $62,500-$63,500, there are many long liquidations; if the price falls below the current support range, it may trigger a chain liquidation of longs, significantly increasing short-term downward pressure.
- Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: As of the daily report, BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of about $0.56 million in 24h.
Driving Factors Analysis: MicroStrategy's large sale of Bitcoin while prices remain stable shows strong market absorption capacity. Divergence in internal communication within the Federal Reserve and the rebound of U.S. tech stocks favor risk assets. The characteristic of leveraged liquidation being mainly short indicates that the short squeeze market is still ongoing. BTC and ETH trends are relatively consistent, with no significant differentiation, overall following the warming risk sentiment. Institutional consensus believes that while ETF fund flows may fluctuate, on-chain and derivatives market resilience supports prices; technically, BTC needs to stabilize above $65,000 to confirm the continuation of the rebound; otherwise, it is likely to fluctuate within a range.
U.S. Stock Index Performance
- Dow Jones: 53,055.91 points (+0.29%), hitting new highs for several consecutive days, first breaking 53,000 points
- S&P 500: 7,537.43 points (+0.72%), key features driven by both tech and cyclical sectors
- Nasdaq: 26,121.16 points (+1.12%), sector drivers include AI-related stocks rebounding
Tech Giants Dynamics
- NVDA: $195.55 (+0.37%)
- AAPL: $312.80 (+1.35%)
- MSFT: $386.74 (-0.96%)
- GOOGL: $366.46 (+1.82%)
- AMZN: $244.16 (+0.61%)
- META: $600.29 (+2.98%)
- TSLA: $419.77 (+6.69%)
Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The tech sector shows a differentiated rebound pattern, with the AI narrative warming up to repair risk appetite, but individual stock driving factors vary significantly. TSLA, META, and GOOGL lead the gains, mainly benefiting from company-specific catalysts (advancements in Robotaxi pilots, improved AI advertising efficiency) and sector rotation; NVDA remains stable, with market confidence restored after clarifying its roadmap; MSFT's slight pullback may be influenced by short-term profit-taking. Overall, the main line of AI capital expenditure remains unchanged, but different segments (GPU, memory, networking, application layer) have varying sensitivities to macro liquidity and policy expectations. Trump's optimistic market narrative further amplifies growth stock sentiment, while discussions on the Federal Reserve's policy flexibility limit single-direction bets.
Sector Movement Observation
Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks rose over 8-13%
- Representative stocks: IREN (+13%), CIFR (+8%)
- Driving Factors: Stabilization of Bitcoin prices and leveraged liquidations drive rebounds in related mining and concept stocks.
Storage Concept Stocks rose over 6-7%
- Representative stocks: Western Digital (+7%), Seagate Technology (+6%)
- Driving Factors: Improved demand expectations in the semiconductor supply chain and AI server-related storage demand support.
Automobile Manufacturing Stocks rose over 5-9%
- Representative stocks: LCID (+9%), RIVN (+8%), TSLA (+7%)
- Driving Factors: Rebound in electric vehicle stocks like Tesla boosts sector sentiment.
# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks
1. NVIDIA - Denies Rumors of Next-Generation AI Architecture Delay
Event Overview: There were previous market rumors that NVIDIA's next-generation AI computing architecture, Kyber, might be delayed until 2028 due to research setbacks. A spokesperson for NVIDIA clearly responded that "the product roadmap is intact," denying any core progress being hindered. This architecture was originally planned for the Rubin Ultra GPU, featuring a new vertical rack design aimed at significantly enhancing computing density and reducing network latency, while also expected to drive demand in the data center co-packaged optics (CPO) supply chain. NVIDIA is currently in the large-scale shipping phase of the Blackwell platform, and the subsequent iterations of Rubin and the positioning of Kyber as the next-generation architecture are crucial. Such rumors have repeatedly surfaced in the AI supply chain, and the company's quick clarification helps stabilize market confidence in the long-term technological path.
Market Interpretation: Analysts from Mizuho Securities and others point out that similar "delay" rumors have been amplified by the market multiple times, resembling eye-catching noise, and NVIDIA's absolute dominance in the AI GPU field is unlikely to be shaken in the short term. Institutions generally believe that although competitors are accelerating their catch-up, NVIDIA's moat in CUDA ecosystem, software stack, and supply chain integration remains deep. Combined with Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statements on policy flexibility, market expectations for long-term certainty in AI capital expenditure have not changed. As a core beneficiary of AI infrastructure, NVIDIA's stable performance reflects institutions' consensus on sustained high-intensity investment in data centers.
Investment Insight: Short-term stock prices are easily disturbed by supply chain rumors; it is recommended to pay attention to the shipping rhythm of Blackwell and the actual progress of Rubin/Kyber; long-term still depends on the speed of global AI capital expenditure implementation and the evolution of the competitive landscape, currently still a core allocation variety.
2. Tesla - Stock Price Surges Over 6%
Event Overview: Tesla's stock price surged nearly 7% on July 6, significantly outperforming the market and boosting the automotive and robotics concept sectors. Market focus is on the long-term narrative advancement of its Robotaxi (autonomous taxi), including potential progress in cities like Miami joining the Robotaxi pilot program, as well as timelines for next-generation products like Cybercab. Tesla also benefits from the overall warming of risk appetite in the tech sector and the linkage to AI-related concepts. Although first-quarter delivery data and profitability still face pressure, market expectations for breakthroughs in FSD (fully autonomous driving) regulations and the commercialization path of the Optimus robot have recently warmed up.
Market Interpretation: Institutional views suggest that this rebound is more driven by short-term technical repair and sector rotation rather than a single fundamental catalyst. Tesla's valuation remains in a relatively high range, requiring continuous tracking of quarterly delivery data, the commercialization timeline of Robotaxi, and the implementation of regulatory policies. Some analysts point out that in an environment where the Federal Reserve's policy path remains uncertain, Tesla, as a high Beta growth stock, is highly sensitive to liquidity expectations and risk appetite, making it prone to significant volatility in the short term.
Investment Insight: High volatility attributes are suitable for short-term trading investors; long-term holding requires close attention to the company's execution capabilities (especially the rhythm of Robotaxi and Optimus rollout) and changes in the macro liquidity environment.
3. Meta Platforms - Stock Price Rises Nearly 3%
Event Overview: Meta's stock price rose nearly 3% following the rebound in the tech sector, with AI-related capital expenditure and the resilience of its advertising business being the core focus of the market. The company continues to increase investment in the Llama open-source model and enhance efficiency through AI-driven advertising recommendation systems, while maintaining high-intensity investment in data center and AI infrastructure construction. Meta's AI strategy emphasizes "efficiency first," aiming to improve model performance and monetization capabilities while controlling total expenditure, which contrasts with some peers' aggressive investments.
Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view Meta's strategic determination in AI infrastructure and metaverse long-term layout positively, believing that its advertising business recovery combined with AI efficiency improvements will support medium- to long-term profit growth. However, in the short term, stock prices are more driven by overall market sentiment and sector rotation rather than company-specific event catalysts. Analysts point out that while Meta's AI capital expenditure is substantial, the return cycle is relatively controllable, and the open-source strategy aids in ecosystem expansion, making it relatively more defensive in the current interest rate environment.
Investment Insight: As a high Beta tech stock, it is suitable for allocation during periods of warming risk appetite; caution is advised regarding the risk of AI expenditure returns falling short of expectations or valuation adjustments due to tightening macro liquidity.
4. Broadcom - Continues to Benefit from AI Networking and Custom Chips
Event Overview: Broadcom performed steadily during the semiconductor sector rebound on July 6, as a core supplier of AI networking and custom ASICs, its penetration in hyperscaler (large-scale data center) AI training and inference clusters continues to increase. The company recently extended its custom chip cooperation agreement with Apple until 2031, while maintaining deep ties with Google (TPU), Meta, and others. Although the previous Q3 AI chip sales guidance was slightly below some expectations, causing short-term fluctuations, AI semiconductor revenue still recorded a 143% year-on-year high growth, indicating a solid demand base.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that Broadcom's dual-drive in AI networking chips (Tomahawk/Jericho series) and custom ASICs makes it one of the most direct beneficiaries of AI capital expenditure aside from NVIDIA. Mizuho and other brokerages point out that while single-quarter guidance fluctuations may cause stock price volatility, in the long run, Broadcom's binding relationships with several tech giants and its layout in cutting-edge fields like CPO (co-packaged optics) provide strong visibility. Combined with current discussions on Federal Reserve policy flexibility, market expectations for long-term investment in AI infrastructure remain strong, with Broadcom as an important player in the "selling shovels" segment, showing outstanding fundamental resilience.
Investment Insight: Broadcom is a core target in the AI industry chain's networking and customization segment, suitable as a diversified allocation choice outside of NVIDIA; short-term focus on hyperscaler capital expenditure rhythm, medium- to long-term outlook on its share increase in the AI ecosystem.
5. Dell Technologies - Strong Demand for AI Servers, Trump's Market Optimism Provides Emotional Support
Event Overview: Dell, as an important supplier of AI servers, has been active against the backdrop of a collective strength in semiconductor and storage concept stocks recently. Previously (at the end of May), the company's financial report showed that AI-optimized server revenue surged 757% year-on-year to $16.1 billion, with AI-related orders reaching $24.4 billion, significantly raising its full-year AI server sales guidance to about $60 billion, leading to a historic single-day surge in stock price. Entering July, backlogged orders for AI servers and storage-related demand continue to be released, becoming the main engine driving its performance growth. Additionally, Trump stated during the promotion of the newborn "Trump Account" investment plan that "the market will soar," encouraging families to invest long-term rather than cashing out, which temporarily boosted market risk appetite and growth stock sentiment, providing additional catalysts for U.S. stocks related to AI infrastructure.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that Dell has successfully transformed from a traditional PC/server manufacturer to an important participant in AI infrastructure. Its close cooperation with GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA and its layout in liquid cooling and high-density servers position it favorably in the wave of AI capital expenditure. Analysts point out that although server gross margins are relatively lower than GPUs, the ability to bind high-margin attachments like storage and networking is improving profit quality. Trump's optimistic market narrative, while political in nature, has temporarily enhanced the overall sentiment of risk assets, especially benefiting U.S.-based AI and tech growth stocks, and combined with Federal Reserve Governor Waller's emphasis on policy flexibility, forms a macro backdrop supporting risk appetite. As a representative in the "selling servers" segment, Dell has high order visibility, with fundamentals and sentiment resonating.
Investment Insight: Dell is a direct beneficiary in the AI server industry chain with relatively reasonable valuation, suitable for medium- to long-term allocation; it is recommended to continuously track its quarterly AI server shipments and gross margin improvement, while also paying attention to the short-term disturbances in market risk appetite caused by Trump's related policy narrative.
# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics
Trump stated that thanks to the Trump Account, newborns today can gain significant financial advantages by the age of 18. During the launch ceremony for the account, he strongly promoted early investment as a way to create long-term wealth, pointing out that the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices have all risen recently. "I believe the market will soar," he said, encouraging families to continue investing rather than cashing out.
When asked whether the Trump Account might include Bitcoin in the future, Trump responded, "It could happen."
Riot Platforms transferred 500 Bitcoins to a NYDIG regulatory account, possibly preparing for subsequent sales.
BonkDAO disclosed on the X platform that it suffered a malicious governance proposal attack, with approximately $20 million worth of BONK tokens stolen from the BonkDAO treasury.
Nasdaq-listed Empery Digital increased its holdings by another 200 Bitcoins. Over the past six days, the company has accumulated a total of 1,200 BTC.
Microsoft plans to lay off about 3,200 employees in its Xbox division and divest five game studios as part of a business restructuring.
Broadcom and Apple have extended their custom chip supply and development cooperation until 2031. The two parties will continue long-term research and supply around dedicated chips for products like the iPhone, based on their existing collaboration on RF and wireless connection chips. The products covered by the agreement will primarily be designed and produced in the U.S., involving long-term procurement commitments worth billions of dollars.
Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week for dividends, reducing its Bitcoin holdings to 843,775 BTC.
# 5. Today's Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
|-------|----|----------------|-----| | 08:30 | U.S. | International Trade Balance (May) | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 10:00 | U.S. | LMI Logistics Managers Index (June) | ⭐⭐ | | 12:15 | U.S. | ADP Employment Change (Weekly) | ⭐⭐ |
Important Event Forecast
July 7 (Tuesday)
- SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index before the market opens on July 7, expected to trigger about $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows. ★★★★
- U.S. ADP employment numbers for the week ending June 20 will be released at 20:15, and the U.S. trade balance for May will be released at 20:30.
July 8 (Wednesday)
- U.S. wholesale sales month-on-month for May will be released at 22:00, and EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 3 will be released at 22:30.
July 9 (Thursday)
- The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 AM, discussing interest rate paths and inflation responses; ★★★★★
- New York Fed President Williams will speak at 21:00;
- U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4 will be released at 20:30.
July 10 (Friday)
- Dallas Fed President Logan will speak at 1:30 AM;
- SK Hynix ADR is tentatively scheduled to be listed on Nasdaq on July 10. ★★★★
*This week's core theme in U.S. stocks revolves around the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, with expected increased market volatility.
Institutional Views
Wall Street analysts generally believe that Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statements indicate a mild divergence in internal communication strategies, but "data dependence" remains the core framework and will not change interest rate cut path expectations due to a single statement. High dollar long positions reflect U.S. economic resilience and interest rate advantages, but recent weak employment data may limit further upside. Gold's pullback is viewed as healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The cryptocurrency market shows resilience amid ETF fund fluctuations and leveraged liquidations, with short-term short squeezes providing support, but medium- to long-term still requires coordination with fundamentals and macro liquidity. Overall, the pattern of risk asset rebounds coexisting with a strong dollar may continue in the short term, and attention should be paid to this week's trade data and the Fed minutes for adjustments to interest rate expectations.
Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.
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