Bitget UEX Daily Report｜The exposure of the US-Iran peace proposal promotes the lifting of oil sanctions; Waller's debut at the Federal Reserve is approaching; SpaceX's market value soars above Amazon

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Walsh's debut tonight may refuse to release the dot plot

• New Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will make his appearance tonight, and the market is paying attention to his policy statements;

• The outside world expects he may not provide the interest rate dot plot forecast, breaking a tradition of about 14 years;

• This move may reflect his cautious attitude towards forward guidance, potentially affecting market communication expectations.

This dynamic may exacerbate short-term interest rate fluctuations, and investors need to pay attention to his latest signals regarding inflation and easing paths.

International Commodities

Full text of the US-Iran peace agreement draft exposed, immediate lifting of oil restrictions and a $300 billion reconstruction fund

• The agreement proposes to allow Iran to immediately resume oil exports, unfreeze overseas assets, and establish at least a $300 billion private fund to support reconstruction;

• Trump mentioned the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran emphasized conditions such as troop withdrawal;

• Related developments have driven some tanker operations, and the market is focused on the long-term sanctions relief process.

Geopolitical easing signals are short-term favorable for oil supply expectations, but long-term compliance uncertainty remains, which may affect oil price fluctuations and the energy sector.

Macroeconomic Policy

US May import prices rise to the largest year-on-year increase in nearly four years

• The import price index rose 1.9% month-on-month and 6.7% year-on-year, with significant increases in plastic products, computers, and airline ticket prices;

• The data highlights the transmission of inflation from the Iran-related conflict and data center demand;

• Wells Fargo raised its S&P 500 target for the end of 2026 to 7800-8000 points, reflecting optimism about corporate profits.

Inflationary pressures may constrain the Federal Reserve's flexibility, providing short-term support for the dollar and precious metals, but caution is needed regarding the suppression of overvalued assets.

# 2. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,330/ounce, +0.09%

• Spot Silver: Approximately $70/ounce, +0.02%

• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $76/barrel, +0.68%

• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $79/barrel, +0.57%

• Dollar Index (DXY): 99.509, -0.02%

Driving Factors Analysis: The US-Iran peace agreement draft signals an increase in supply, combined with the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which short-term suppresses the upward space for crude oil, but geopolitical tail risks remain. Import price data highlights inflation stickiness, supporting the dollar and precious metals' safe-haven attributes. Institutions believe that AI demand and supply chain factors will continue to push up prices for certain commodities, while the Federal Reserve's policy expectations turning cautious (with Walsh's initial tenure) may strengthen inter-asset linkage: gold benefits from real interest rate considerations, while crude oil seeks balance amid supply relief. In the short term, the market will focus on the progress of the agreement's implementation and the impact of macro data on risk appetite.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $65,818, -0.91%

• ETH: Approximately $1,798, +0.05%

• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.34 trillion, -0.5%

• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h approximately $370 million, with long positions liquidated at $200 million

• Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation map: Current price approximately 65,789 USDT, currently in a dense liquidation zone between long and short positions, but a large number of high-leverage short positions are concentrated above $66,800-$67,800, with cumulative short liquidation scale significantly higher than the lower long liquidation scale, indicating market momentum to sweep short liquidity upwards. If the price breaks through the resistance near $66,300, it may trigger a chain reaction of short liquidations and accelerate the market; conversely, the area of $65,000-$65,300 is a recent concentrated support/risk zone for long liquidations.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $64.8 million yesterday.

Driving Factors Analysis: Geopolitical easing and macro inflation data intertwine, leading to a differentiated cryptocurrency market. BTC is slightly pressured by risk sentiment and dollar linkage, while ETH remains relatively resilient supported by staking and ecosystem activities. Leverage liquidations mainly come from long positions, indicating that some high-position chasing has been washed out; ETF fund flows continue to be cautious, reflecting institutions' wait-and-see attitude amid uncertainty. Technically, BTC is oscillating around a key range, and attention should be paid to the potential boost to liquidity from Federal Reserve communications. Overall, the macro environment remains dominant, and the short-term trend depends on the implementation of the agreement and data validation, with BTC/ETH differentiation potentially continuing amid the switch between AI and traditional narratives.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at approximately 51,999 points (+0.64%), continuously setting new highs

• S&P 500: Closed at approximately 7,511 points (-0.57%), showing significant high-level oscillation characteristics

• Nasdaq: Closed at approximately 26,376 points (-1.15%), dragged down by the technology sector's differentiation

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $209, -1.8%

• AAPL: $299, +0.9%

• MSFT: $391, -1.5%

• GOOGL: $373, +1.1%

• AMZN: $246, -0.01%

• META: $567, -1.5%

• TSLA: $405, -1.5%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones reaching new highs driven by value and defensive sectors, while the Nasdaq was dragged down by chip pullbacks. SpaceX's market value surpassed Amazon after its IPO, becoming the fifth largest globally, highlighting market enthusiasm for aerospace and emerging technologies; Google and Apple released AI hardware signals through operating system upgrades and new product planning, but the general pullback in chip stocks reflects concerns over valuation and supply. Overall, the tech sector presents structural opportunities amid the long-term AI narrative and short-term geopolitical/inflation disturbances, not a one-size-fits-all situation.

Overview of Cryptocurrency Stock Derivatives

• 24H Total Transaction Volume: $12.43 billion (+1.66%)

• Total Open Interest (OI): $7.235 billion (-0.28%)

• 24H Total Liquidation: $11.29 million

• Transaction Volume Proportion: 6.96%

• Open Interest Proportion: 6.50%

• Liquidation Proportion: 3.33%

Sector Positioning Performance

• Technology Sector: $1.345 billion (largest scale)

• Financial Sector: $175 million

• Biotechnology Sector: $14.2974 million

• Consumer Sector: $72.178 million

• Industrial Sector: $33.4986 million

Position Heatmap

Top Assets by Position Size

1. GOLD (Gold): $3.046 billion

2. SILVER (Silver): $721 million

3. WTI (WTI Crude Oil): $557 million

4. NVDA (NVIDIA): $249 million

5. SNDK: $208 million

6. BRENT (Brent Crude Oil): $207 million

7. MRVL (Marvell): $156 million

8. CRCL (Circle): $118 million

9. GOOGL (Google): $104 million

Market Fund Flow Observation

• Precious metals (gold, silver) dominate with a total position close to $3.8 billion, making it the largest fund concentration direction in the current stock derivatives sector.

• Energy varieties show differentiation: WTI and BRENT are both at the forefront of positions, indicating high trading enthusiasm for crude oil.

• Tech stocks remain the core trading sector, with NVIDIA (NVDA), Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), etc., all located in the core area of the heatmap.

• From the heatmap colors, the number of green assets slightly exceeds that of red assets, indicating an overall positive risk appetite in the market, but some AI and semiconductor-related stocks show signs of fund outflows.

Energy Sector Slight Fluctuation

• Representative Stocks: XOM (+0.8%), CVX (-0.5%) and other energy giants

• Driving Factors: The US-Iran peace draft increases supply prospects, short-term suppressing oil prices but benefiting long-term stability expectations.

Tech Hardware/Chip Sector Pullback

• Representative Stocks: INTC (-8.5%), AMD (-7.2%), MU (-6.3%) and others

• Driving Factors: Sector rotation, profit-taking, and valuation pressure, with emerging targets like SpaceX attracting fund diversion.

Defensive/Financial Sector Relatively Strong

• Representative Stocks: JPM (+1.5%), GS (+2.0%) and others

• Driving Factors: Supporting the Dow's performance, benefiting from value rotation and active mergers.

# 3. In-depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. SpaceX - Strong Performance on IPO Day
Event Overview: SpaceX's stock price rose over 16% at one point after its IPO, closing up about 4.8%, with a market value of $2.65 trillion, surpassing Amazon to become the fifth largest globally. Despite limited circulating shares amplifying volatility, its revenue scale is still below that of traditional giants. Options trading has started, and the market is focused on its long-term growth potential.
Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe that the limited circulating shares are the main reason for the short-term price surge, but long-term valuation needs to anchor on the progress of commercializing space, increasing launch frequency, and contributions from Starlink and other businesses. Compared to traditional giants, its high growth attributes resonate with defense/space economic trends, and short-term volatility may gradually converge after liquidity improves.
Investment Insight: It is recommended that investors closely track subsequent trading volume expansion and earnings report validation, suitable for those with a higher risk appetite as a core allocation in emerging technology, combined with position management to cope with uncertainties in the early stages of listing.

2. Apple (AAPL) - 2027 New Product Blueprint Exposed
Event Overview: Apple plans to launch AI-driven AirPods (with camera), foldable phones, and a commemorative iPhone by the end of 2027, and advance projects like smart glasses.
Market Interpretation: Analysts believe that AI wearable devices will further blur the boundaries between hardware and services, likely driving dual growth in accessories and subscription revenue; the layout of smart glasses directly targets the future track of the metaverse/AR, but supply chain maturity and consumer acceptance will be major variables.
Investment Insight: The hardware innovation cycle provides medium to long-term catalysts, and it is recommended to dynamically allocate based on product release rhythms, but caution is needed regarding potential pressure on gross margins from execution delays or intensified competition.

3. Google (GOOGL) - Release of Android 17 Operating System
Event Overview: Google released Android 17, optimizing multitasking, video creation, and gaming experiences, laying the foundation for smart agent AI capabilities. It also launched the Brazos liquid cooling system to address high-density AI chip heat dissipation.
Market Interpretation: This move not only consolidates Android's dominant position in the ecosystem but also strengthens cloud infrastructure competitiveness through liquid cooling technology, helping Google expand its share in AI training and edge computing; institutions expect this will drive synchronized growth in precise advertising and enterprise cloud service demand, but the open-source strategy may also accelerate industry competition.
Investment Insight: The ecological upgrade has a significant pull effect on core business, making it suitable as a stable allocation in the tech sector; investors can pay attention to the increase in cloud revenue proportion, but caution is needed regarding long-term competitive risks from open-source technology spillover.

4. Snap (SNAP) - AR Glasses Launched for Consumers
Event Overview: Snap officially launched the Specs AR glasses priced at $2,195, positioning them as next-generation computing devices, intensifying competition with Apple and Meta in the AR/XR track.
Market Interpretation: As an important attempt at consumer-grade AR hardware, this product is expected to test market acceptance and accumulate data advantages; institutional views are divided, with optimists seeing it as enhancing traffic for the advertising platform, while cautious observers worry about high pricing and insufficient ecosystem maturity.
Investment Insight: Hardware bets come with high uncertainty, and it is recommended to track user adoption data and developer ecosystem building, suitable as a satellite position allocation, focusing on the evolution of competition with Meta/Apple.

5. Fox (FOXA) - $22 Billion Acquisition of Roku
Event Overview: Fox announced the acquisition of streaming platform Roku for $22 billion, aiming to strengthen advertising targeting and digital distribution channels, becoming the third largest player in US television viewership after the merger.
Market Interpretation: This transaction marks a traditional media giant accelerating digital transformation, significantly enhancing the reach of sports and news content through the Roku platform; institutions believe that the synergy effect is expected to improve advertising monetization efficiency, but regulatory scrutiny and integration costs are major execution risks.
Investment Insight: Mergers and acquisitions provide new growth momentum for the media sector, suitable for focusing on synergy realization after the transaction is completed; investors need to assess the impact of debt and cultural integration difficulties, with long-term value depending on the expansion of streaming market share.

# 4. Market Dynamics

1. According to CoinDesk, Strategy's Bitcoin collateralized preferred stock STRC closed at $91.79 on Tuesday, marking the third lowest closing price since trading began in July 2025, down nearly 8% from the $100 par value, far below par. STRC has not returned to the $100 level since the ex-dividend date on May 15. Influencing factors include: Bitcoin price under pressure around $65,000, down about 50% from last October's historical high; concerns over dividend coverage, as Strategy currently has only about 7 months of dividend payment capability, while previous cash reserves could cover 24 months.

2. VanEck released a report stating that Bitcoin mining companies face a short-term funding gap of about $50 billion in transitioning to AI infrastructure, with long-term capital needs of about $221 billion. Analysts indicate that the market's focus is shifting from contract signing to execution risks, with the industry currently delivering only about 25% of the leased AI and high-performance computing capacity, and companies missing construction milestones face "structural downgrades" from investors.

3. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on platform X, stating that altcoins have not perished; what has perished are altcoins that rely solely on narratives. The era of making money solely by issuing coins has ended. He believes that valuable altcoins can be divided into three categories: global internet companies with tokenized market layers, DeFi services with real income, and projects that align with broader financial trends.

4. The Wall Street Journal reported that informed sources indicated that under the agreement, the US will allow Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel export sales, providing Tehran with an economic incentive for early cashing to de-escalate the conflict. The terms regarding the exemption from oil sales sanctions in the agreement will take effect immediately after the agreement is signed this week.

5. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the total trading volume of SpaceX-related 2x long ETFs exceeded $1 billion on the first day, with products issued by LeverageShares trading about $281 million, setting a new record for first-day ETF trading volume since the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT, surpassing the performance of ETHA and DRAM products.

# 5. Market Calendar

June 17 (Wednesday)

1. US Economic Data: May Retail Sales Data (Focus on Consumer Resilience). ★★★★

2. Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Economic Forecast Release (Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair): The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged (currently around 3.75%), with a focus on the tone of Warsh's press conference, statements on inflation/employment, and whether to hint at possible future rate hikes. ★★★★★

3. US Stock Earnings: Jabil (JBL), etc.

June 18 (Thursday)

1. US Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims for the week of June 13, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, etc.

2. US Stock Earnings: Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KR), etc., with a focus on the consumer and tech services sectors. ★★★★

June 19 (Friday)

1. US markets closed for the Juneteenth federal holiday.

This week's core focus for US stocks: "Federal Reserve Focus Week" Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting + retail sales and other economic data + earnings from Accenture/Kroger, which will dominate macro policy expectations and market sentiment. The first complete trading week after SpaceX (SPCX) IPO (impact on space/technology-related concept stocks).

# 6. Institutional Views

Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that the US-Iran peace framework injects certainty into the energy market, but inflation stickiness and communication from the new Federal Reserve leadership will dominate short-term volatility. Wells Fargo's raised S&P target reflects confidence in corporate resilience; Goldman Sachs' merger data highlights enthusiasm for AI-driven strategic integration. In the cryptocurrency space, ETF flows and leverage liquidations show institutional caution, with BTC seeking a bottom at key support, while gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset. Overall, the market is shifting from geopolitical shocks to macro policy and fundamental validation, suggesting attention to asset rotation opportunities under data validation.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably have deviations; please refer to real-time market data.