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Citigroup: The SEC's new regulations will become the next focal point for the cryptocurrency market

Citigroup stated in its latest market strategy program that the failure of the U.S. Senate to advance the CLARITY Act for formal review did not interrupt Bitcoin's rebound. After the procedural vote on the bill was blocked, Bitcoin remained strong, indicating that funds have begun to reduce their reliance on a single legislative node and are instead focusing on whether regulatory rules can continue to move forward.Citigroup believes that the legislative blockage will limit the CFTC's ability to obtain a more comprehensive regulatory mandate for the crypto market in the short term, but the SEC can still advance some rule-making based on its existing authority. For the market, this means that the compliance process for the crypto industry still has room to continue, with the subsequent focus on the SEC's actual execution pace regarding trading, tokenized assets, and market access rules. Additionally, the macro environment remains a variable for Bitcoin's rebound.The baseline judgment of Citigroup's economic team is that this round of interest rate hikes may be close to "one and done"; however, the quantitative macro team warns that if AI investments continue to support growth, and employment and wage pressures persist, interest rates may face further upward revision risks. Citigroup views Bitcoin's position above the mid-term moving average as a signal of warming risk appetite and notes that its correlation with Nasdaq performance is worth continued tracking.

Bernstein: The U.S. SEC and CFTC may accelerate the formulation of cryptocurrency regulations after being stalled by the CLARITY Act

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein analysts stated that after the failure of the CLARITY Act to pass the Senate procedural vote, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are expected to "actively and swiftly" advance the formulation of digital asset regulations to make up for the time spent on previous bill negotiations.Bernstein anticipates that the new regulations may cover token classifications for financing, protective measures for DeFi and self-custody protocol developers, exemptions for stock tokenization innovations, expedited approvals for perpetual contracts of real-world assets, and revisions to rules related to sports event contracts and their swap classifications. Relevant agencies may provide additional regulatory clarity for the industry through administrative rules.Analysts believe that the CLARITY Act could have reduced the risk of the regulatory framework being adjusted with changes in the political environment through legislation, but due to limited remaining legislative time and controversies over ethical provisions, the likelihood of the bill being voted on again is low.The SEC had previously proposed a new framework applicable to certain crypto asset investment contracts, intending to allow entities to issue tokens not exceeding $5 million within 4 years, or tokens not exceeding $75 million within 12 months, and set up safe harbor arrangements. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins had also stated that if Congress fails to pass the CLARITY Act, the agency has the ability to formulate digital asset rules on its own.

Analyst: The AI competition in the United States is difficult to "slow down," and safety regulations may instead reinforce the advantages of leading laboratories

Analyst Jukan from Citrini forwarded a research report from Tianfeng Securities and stated that the U.S. government needs to maintain its leading position in the AI field, making it difficult to truly stop once it enters the AI race. Jukan believes that the recent calls from Anthropic and OpenAI to slow down AI development should not be viewed solely as safety initiatives; there may also be multiple considerations behind it, such as the inability to slow down competition and consolidating leading advantages through safety regulation.Jukan further pointed out that the related "AI slowdown" calls seemingly stem from the challenges of safety testing, operational monitoring, and third-party validation keeping pace with the speed of model iteration. In the short term, this may suppress market sentiment in the AI sector and lower market expectations for the next generation of models; another possibility is that the industry remains optimistic about AI in the long term but wishes to delay the next round of significant R&D investment, prioritizing the commercialization of existing products and reducing infrastructure and capital expenditure pressures. He believes that the AI race is essentially similar to a "prisoner's dilemma," where all parties wish to slow down, but no one dares to be the first to stop, or they may lose technological, customer, and financing advantages.Jukan also mentioned that Anthropic and OpenAI have recently emphasized recursive self-improvement (RSI), which is related to AI already assisting in the development of the next generation of AI and the acceleration of model iteration speed; at the same time, it has been reported that during internal testing at OpenAI, incidents occurred where agents collaborated to escape the sandbox and intrude into Hugging Face's production servers. Jukan believes that as the release of models incurs expensive evaluation, certification, and ongoing audit costs, large laboratories are better able to bear these fixed costs, while smaller teams may face higher entry barriers as a result; if leading laboratories further participate in the formulation of evaluation standards, industry barriers may continue to rise.

first_img Thailand implements cryptocurrency travel regulations requiring verification of ownership of self-custody wallets

The Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand (SEC) has officially approved the travel rule for crypto assets, requiring digital asset operators to verify the ownership or control of wallets when customers send or receive crypto assets to self-custody wallets, and to retain transaction-related information for at least five years for regulatory review. Pornanong Budsaratragoon, Secretary-General of the Thai SEC, stated that the rule aims to reduce the risk of digital asset operators being used for money laundering and terrorist financing.The new regulations were finalized after two rounds of public consultations this year, with the first round presenting a draft in March and a notification draft released in June. The Thai SEC stated that most stakeholders expressed support. As the travel rule is implemented, Thailand is considering expanding the access to regulated crypto products. On Monday, the Thai SEC proposed allowing intermediaries to offer specific crypto derivatives traded on regulated overseas exchanges to retail investors.In the days prior, regulators also advanced the draft rules for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and simultaneously sought opinions on the foreign digital asset custodians used by funds investing in crypto assets. Thailand's move aligns with global regulatory trends, as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) estimates that by 2026, 83% of surveyed jurisdictions will have enacted travel rule legislation.

first_img Fomo and Robinhood Wallet credit card purchases of Memecoin suspected of circumventing card organization crypto regulations

The Block's investigation shows that on the social trading app Fomo and Robinhood's self-custody wallet Robinhood Wallet, users can directly purchase Memecoin using credit cards via Apple Pay or Google Pay without completing a separate KYC identity verification. Transactions can also accumulate points or cash back rewards as normal credit card rewards. The media tested the purchase of WIF, and transactions on the Visa and Mastercard networks were classified under merchant category code MCC 5815 (digital goods media), rather than the cryptocurrency asset categories MCC 6012 or 6051 as stipulated by card organization rules, which typically come with crypto tags and do not earn rewards.These transactions are supported by the Token Checkout product from the crypto infrastructure company Crossmint. Crossmint insists that this classification is appropriate, citing the joint guidance released by the SEC and CFTC in March of this year, which views certain Memecoins like WIF as "digital collectibles." However, Chase stated that the Visa transaction was not marked as a cryptocurrency purchase and that the classification was incorrect, and they have initiated a case review with Visa; the New York Attorney General's office also stated that it is reviewing the matter. Vanderbilt University law professor Yesha Yadav and other payment experts believe that the SEC's position and card organization rules represent "two completely different systems."
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