wintermute

According to a report by Cryptopolitan, a market report released by Wintermute indicates that Bitcoin's breakthrough of $80,000 is primarily driven by a short squeeze in the perpetual futures market, rather than by spot demand. Over the past month, Bitcoin futures open interest has increased by about $10 billion to $58 billion, while spot trading volume has dropped to a two-year low. When Bitcoin surpassed $70,000, a large number of shorts were forced to close their positions, triggering a buying spree that pushed prices higher. Wintermute warns that the rally, lacking support from spot demand, is fragile, and the market may face a sharp reversal.In the long term, recent net inflows into spot ETFs have reached $623 million, and the exchange's Bitcoin inventory has fallen to a seven-year low, but these factors are not enough to offset short-term risks. The U.S. CPI data being higher than expected and the uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair may also exacerbate market pressures. Wintermute states that $85,000 is still a possibility, but the risk-reward ratio for buying at the current price level is poor.

Wintermute released a weekly market summary stating that the U.S. stock market continued its strong performance, recording a sixth consecutive week of gains, with the Nasdaq index rising 4.5% and the S&P 500 index rising 2.3%, both reaching all-time highs, while small-cap stocks and tech giants strengthened simultaneously. Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.3%, showcasing a resilient labor market. Despite the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, the market viewed it as noise, and the war premium has significantly receded. Iran-U.S. negotiations have returned to square one, with Iran's demands for sovereignty, compensation, and sanctions relief being directly rejected by Trump. This week's CPI data will test the transmission of energy prices to inflation, and with Powell's term ending and Waller taking over, the Fed's June FOMC dot plot will be closely watched.In terms of crypto assets, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, reaching a peak of around $83,000, marking its first time above the 200-day moving average (for the first time in seven months), but this rise was clearly driven by leverage: open interest surged by $10 billion in one month, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low, indicating a typical short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Institutional funding remains supportive, with ETF net inflows of $623 million and trading platform reserves hitting a seven-year low, but short-term risks are high—RSI has entered the overbought zone, and if the squeeze ends without spot trading picking up, Bitcoin's price could quickly retreat.Altcoins have shifted towards personalized narratives, with tokenization and AI computing sectors performing prominently. Overall, in the crypto market, this round of rebound needs to be quickly validated as a true bull market starting point: currently driven mainly by the stock market and leverage resonance, if CPI rises or the Fed's leadership change brings uncertainty, whether Bitcoin can independently hold above $80,000 will become a key confirmation signal.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), after Wintermute made a large deposit of token B to CEX on May 4, the price briefly dropped by 16.8%, reaching a low of $0.2777, and this morning it rose to a high of $0.5527, with a maximum fluctuation of 99%.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, the market has experienced significant volatility, with market makers potentially taking on a large number of buy orders. Among the two main market-making addresses for major cryptocurrencies on the Hyperliquid platform, Wintermute and Auros Global have both reported varying degrees of losses.It is reported that Wintermute's market-making address has a daily loss of approximately $1.1 million, with major holdings including: $23.4 million in ETH long positions and $16.3 million in BTC short positions, while providing liquidity for 96 cryptocurrencies. Auros Global's market-making address has a daily loss of approximately $400,000, with major holdings including: $44.8 million in BTC long positions and $18 million in SOL and XRP long positions, while providing liquidity for 175 cryptocurrencies.

Wintermute stated that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: the first half of the week was driven by ceasefire expectations, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5%, Bitcoin up 2.6%, and the VIX falling below 20. Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down, and the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade on Iranian ports, causing Brent crude oil to surge 8% in a single day, returning above $103, leading risk assets to give back their gains.On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than widespread inflation. Asian markets saw a slight decline overnight, with Nasdaq futures steady. The market's reaction to each new piece of news is weakening, suggesting that it may have priced in the worst-case scenario or is becoming complacent.In terms of crypto assets: Bitcoin closed up 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows reaching $327 million year-to-date. Open interest in perpetual contracts has stabilized in the $28-30 billion range.Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range indicates that hedging activities will amplify bidirectional volatility within that range. Wintermute believes that the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is returning to an escalation trend. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. Confirmation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Bitcoin to break above $75,000, while continued escalation may keep prices in a range-bound fluctuation with a downward tendency. The earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, which could change the positioning behavior at the edges of the range.

According to CoinDesk, Ron Hammond, the policy head of crypto market maker Wintermute, stated that the legislative process for the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, is still hindered by multiple factors, with a probability of passing this year at about 30%.The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC in the regulation of digital assets, but the current negotiation progress is uneven, with the timeline repeatedly delayed. The main resistance comes from traditional banking institutions, particularly around the significant disagreements regarding whether stablecoins should offer yields. Compromise proposals have been blocked multiple times, and additionally, the internal divisions within the Democratic Party, as well as issues related to DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering, add uncertainty to the legislation.However, Ron Hammond believes there is still room for the bill to advance, but whether it can be enacted within the year depends on whether key disagreements can be resolved.

Wintermute released its latest weekly report, stating that the current macro situation was entirely driven by geopolitical news last week: On Tuesday, the Iranian president signaled a ceasefire, causing the S&P 500 to surge about 2.9%, and Brent crude oil fell to $105; however, on Wednesday, Trump made a tough speech, promising "extremely severe" strikes against Iran for 2-3 weeks and showing no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leading WTI crude oil to soar 11% to over $111 on Thursday, while Asian markets plummeted.On Sunday, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants on Tuesday, while also stating that it was "very likely" an agreement would be reached before Monday. Reports indicate that a 45-day ceasefire framework is under discussion. The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.36% (up 40bp since the conflict began), and swap market pricing shows a zero probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on April 28-29. PCE data will be released on Thursday, with the market watching whether the impact of oil prices will transmit to the Fed's preferred inflation indicators.In terms of digital assets, Bitcoin only rose 2% last week, with the fear and greed index at 9 (extreme fear), and social sentiment reaching the most bearish level since the conflict began. Institutional buying remains a key support, with net inflows into ETFs in March at $1.32 billion (the strongest since October 2025), Strategy increasing its holdings by 44,000 Bitcoins, and Morgan Stanley approved to list a spot ETF at a 14bp fee rate.However, in the last week of March, ETFs turned to outflows of $414 million, and the ratio of exchange whales rose from 0.34 in January to 0.79, while over-the-counter trading data also showed institutions shifting from buying to neutral to net selling. Ethereum performed well (+4.2%), with staking yields becoming a differentiated advantage in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment.Solana dropped below $80 due to a hack of the Drift protocol (resulting in a loss of $285 million, marking the second-largest hack in Solana's history). Wintermute stated that the Tuesday deadline for the Strait of Hormuz is a critical juncture. The 45-day ceasefire framework is the most concrete de-escalation effort since the conflict began, but damage to Iranian energy facilities, Gulf refineries, and port logistics has already occurred, and even a full ceasefire cannot restore pre-war shipping capacity overnight. If the "power plant day" threat materializes on Tuesday and Iran retaliates, the risk premium for oil prices will be immediately rebuilt.

According to Arkham data, at 21:04, 1829.86 BTC (worth approximately 2.838 million USD) was transferred from Hyperunit to Wintermute.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, after a security incident of approximately $285 million occurred at Drift Protocol, FTX / Alameda sold 6.94 million DRIFT through Wintermute 6 hours ago, worth about $320,000.Data shows that Alameda previously acquired about 8.33 million DRIFT as an investor through vesting unlock, which was worth approximately $6.22 million at that time, and the current corresponding value has dropped to about $380,000.

According to Arkham data, at 15:19, 137.87 BTC (worth approximately $3.5877 million) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with bc1qcd...) to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 23:06, 249,000 SOL (worth approximately 19.68 million USD) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with 9PYnN...) to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 21:30, 151 BTC (worth approximately 10 million USD) was transferred from Coinbase to an anonymous address (starting with 1KbDEg...). Subsequently, that address transferred 151 BTC to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 16:11, 51.43 BTC (worth approximately 2.9969 million USD) was transferred from OKX to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 04:58, 39,300 SOL (worth approximately 3.24 million USD) was transferred from Binance to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 03:55, 507.92 BTC (worth approximately 34.1 million USD) was transferred from Wintermute to Anchorage Digital.

According to Arkham data, at 03:12, 110,288.999991 SOL (worth approximately 9.2367 million USD) was transferred from Wintermute to Binance.

According to Arkham data, at 19:23, Wintermute transferred 2.5 million USDT, worth 2.5 million dollars, to an anonymous address (starting with TRceF...).

According to Arkham data, at 06:26, 3,487.19 BNB (worth approximately 2.15 million USD) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with 0xAB44d...) to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 05:39, 43.7 BTC (worth approximately 2.97 million USD) was transferred from OKX to Wintermute.

This month, RootData launched a roadshow for companies in the cryptocurrency industry segmentation, presenting representative projects that are still committed to being Builders to the market based on transparency. Today, the second issue is released------the cryptocurrency market maker segment, with nearly 40 companies still in operation included in the statistics.Specifically, market makers such as Galaxy Digital, Wintermute, GSR, DWF Labs, Jane Street, and Amber Group have transparency scores above 70%, placing them in the first tier of this segment. Additionally, 19 market maker projects have transparency scores below 60%, with most failing to disclose data such as team information, funding, or market-making tokens, indicating a need for further improvement.It is reported that RootData's transparency score is based on a comprehensive evaluation of investor background, team completeness, roadmap delivery, and news popularity. The higher the transparency score, the stronger the project's strength and stability.