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Analysis: MSTR has dropped 78% from its peak, and its BTC holding cost is now higher than the spot price

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Strategy's preferred stock MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin has dropped 51% from its peak. The average cost basis for Strategy's 847,363 BTC holdings is $75,651, with a total cost of $64.1 billion. The current BTC price has fallen below this cost line for the first time since the bear market of 2022. The additional decline of MSTR relative to BTC has reached about 28 percentage points, approaching the upper end of the historical range, but has not yet touched the extreme of an 89% retracement from the 2022 low.Meanwhile, Strategy's purchasing strategy has clearly shifted to a defensive stance: the weekly BTC purchase volume has been cut by about two-thirds, with less than 11% of the $335.5 million raised through stock issuance used to buy BTC, and the remainder transferred to dollar reserves. At the end of May, Strategy also conducted its first net sell since 2022, selling 32 BTC to pay STRC dividends. Adler pointed out that the main risk currently lies in BTC remaining below the treasury cost line of $75,000, which would block the financing channel for ATM issuance by compressing the MSTR premium. However, nearly all of Strategy's debt is in convertible bonds, with no additional margin risk; the baseline scenario is the loss of marginal buyers rather than cascading liquidations. The real pressure point lies in the company's transition from selling stock to systematically selling BTC itself to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest.

Data: Bitcoin miners' profit margins continue to be under pressure, with revenue falling below production costs

Bitcoin miner revenue has continued to decline over the past year, with the current 7-day moving average daily income at approximately $30 million, significantly lower than last summer's level of over $50 million. Among this, transaction fees have dropped to less than $250,000 per day, almost negligible compared to block subsidies.Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin is around $62,500, below JPMorgan's estimated production cost of about $78,000. This state of being below production costs has persisted for five months, the longest duration in this cycle. Historically, production costs are often seen as a soft bottom area for Bitcoin prices. Currently, it is estimated that about 20% of miners are in a loss position at the current price, and the pressure is beginning to reflect at the network level.Over the past six months, the sensitivity of mining difficulty to Bitcoin prices has risen to 0.62, indicating that high-cost miners are increasingly inclined to turn off their mining machines based on price fluctuations rather than continue mining at a loss. In the second week of June, Bitcoin mining difficulty decreased by 10%, marking the second occurrence of a similar magnitude adjustment this year. A comparable adjustment also occurred in the previous quarter, with both instances happening during periods when prices remained below production costs, indicating that pressure on the miner side is deepening.

Gate upgrades the US dollar ecosystem, streamlining the entire process of US dollar recharge, trading, and withdrawal

Gate announces the launch of a new USD ecosystem and upgrades its two major product modules, Gate Pay and Exchange, further integrating USD asset management, capital flow, and digital asset usage scenarios. Currently, this feature is gradually being opened to users. After updating the app to version 8.24.0 or above, users can manage USD assets, recharge USD, trade digital assets, withdraw USD, and transfer funds between accounts within Gate. Through the new USD account, users can hold and manage USD assets and directly use their USD balance to participate in digital asset trading.At the same time, Gate Pay has completed a product design upgrade, optimizing the display of accounts, assets, and capital flow, enhancing the clarity and smoothness of fund management. Both the Gate App and Gate Pay now support USD recharge and withdrawal functions. Users can recharge USD to the platform via SWIFT bank wire transfer and withdraw USD funds to their bank accounts. Meanwhile, users can also directly use their USD balance to purchase cryptocurrencies or sell their held crypto assets with one click to exchange for USD balance, achieving convenient conversion between USD assets and digital assets.This upgrade by Gate aims to integrate USD asset management and digital asset usage processes into the same product system, covering core aspects such as recharge, trading, withdrawal, and fund transfer, providing global users with a more efficient one-stop USD fund service. In the future, Gate will continue to expand the usage scenarios of USD assets and fiat currency service capabilities, continuously providing global users with a more convenient and efficient fund management experience.
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