bab

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. interest rate futures indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by January next year exceeds 50%.

According to the latest data from Gate's market predictions, the overall market expectation regarding the event of "when will Bitcoin reach $150,000" is relatively cautious. As of June 30, 2026, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 is 1%; by December 31, 2026, this probability rises to 10%. Overall, the market maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards the short to medium-term price increase potential of Bitcoin, and funding expectations have not yet formed a consistent breakthrough judgment.As the first CEX platform to connect to Polymarket, Gate consistently ranks among the top three in the Polymarket collaboration channels, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market. Currently, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participating in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. Gate continues to optimize the prediction market functions and ecosystem, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 96.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.2%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 93.8%, with the probabilities of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points and a rate hike of 25 basis points both at 3.1%.

According to a report by Reuters citing sources, the United States has approved 10 Chinese tech companies, including Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, and JD.com, to purchase Nvidia H200 AI chips. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings, and JD.com saw significant intraday gains in Hong Kong stocks due to expectations, but after the related positive news materialized, Tencent has now given back most of its gains, while JD.com remains at a high level.Hyperinsight monitoring shows that on-chain, among the traditional market contracts currently supported by Hyperliquid, BABA (Alibaba mapped contract) is the only option among the relevant targets. This contract surged 11% last night and this morning, then slightly retreated about 4% during the day, currently reported at $140, with a 24-hour trading volume recently surpassing $12 million for the first time. A trader from Hyperliquid preemptively positioned, going long on 2,000 BABA contracts with 10x leverage over the past two days, at an average price of $137, with a position size of about $280,000, currently recording a floating profit of 24.5%.

Aave DAO has initiated a governance proposal to establish a dedicated Bitcoin Spoke driven by the Babylon protocol in Aave V4, allowing users to use native BTC as collateral for lending without relying on wrapped BTC or centralized custody solutions.The proposal has been published on the Aave governance forum, seeking DAO approval to advance the integration and incorporate Babylon's native BTC into the V4 lending protocol's collateral assets. The proposal points out that Bitcoin is the largest crypto collateral base, but currently, most on-chain BTC lending relies on wrapped BTC variants, custodial intermediaries, or fragmented BTCfi platforms. The Aave V4 architecture will leverage Babylon's staking and validation infrastructure to provide a more direct native Bitcoin lending mechanism, integrating fragmented Bitcoin collateral lending into a unified protocol.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1%. Similarly, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until July is also 99%, with a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points having a probability of 1%.

Alibaba (09988.HK) mentioned in its financial report that it is continuously expanding the boundaries of AI capabilities through deep innovation. Recently, by launching a series of brand new large language models and multimodal models, we have made significant progress in model intelligence. In March, we released Qwen3.6-Plus, achieving a remarkable overall performance improvement, particularly excelling in programming and agent programming, becoming an industry benchmark in front-end web development and complex warehouse-level tasks.Qwen3.6-Plus also possesses stronger multimodal perception and reasoning capabilities, with a native context window length supporting up to 1 million tokens, further enhancing stability and reliability. In addition to the Qianwen model family, we are also continuously enriching our specialized model layout, including the world model HappyOyster that supports real-time creation and interaction, as well as the multimodal model HappyHorse for video generation, both of which are currently undergoing gray testing.

According to Jinshi reports, after the earnings report was released, Alibaba (BABA.N) saw a brief decline in pre-market trading before rising, with the current increase reaching 2.3%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.1%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.9%. In addition, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 96%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.9%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the event "Will the Epstein will be released by ..?" is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a total pool size reaching $129 million. The option with the highest market consensus is "May 31," corresponding to an estimated probability of about 12.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.4%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.6%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.1%.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that the overall market expectation for the "WTI Crude Oil May Price" related prediction event remains strong. Among them, the probability of WTI crude oil prices exceeding $110 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $105 is 67%, and the probability of exceeding $100 is as high as 94%. Overall, the market maintains an optimistic outlook on the short-term trend of oil prices, with funding expectations continuously leaning towards an upward direction.Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel continues to lead, currently securing a spot in the top three, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and engagement depth of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.In addition, Gate will launch the "Polymarket 100 USDT Battle God Challenge" social media event from May 11, 15:00 to May 20, 15:00 (UTC+8), where users can participate in prediction market trading with a maximum of 100 USDT and compete for the earnings leaderboard and quality content creator rewards by sharing profit reports, trading strategies, and review content. The total prize pool of the event includes 66 content reward slots and a 1,000 USDT Battle God earnings prize pool.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 97.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.3%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 94.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 5.4%, and the probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.1%.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 93.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 6.2%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 10.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.3%.

According to the Daily Economic News, DeepSeek is rarely launching a massive financing plan, simultaneously attracting two major companies, Tencent and Alibaba. Previously, there were media reports that Alibaba and DeepSeek had a breakdown in negotiations. In response, an insider revealed exclusively to reporters on May 9 that Alibaba should not have been in negotiations.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event related to "What will the price of gold (GC) be by the end of June 2026," the overall market expectation remains relatively strong. Among these, the probability of the gold price exceeding $5,000 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $4,900 is 68%, and the probability of reaching $4,600 is about 80%; meanwhile, the probability of being below $4,500 is 55%. Overall, the market maintains a high level of attention on the medium to long-term trend of gold, with some divergence in capital expectations.Gate's performance in the Polymarket collaboration channel continues to lead, currently ranking in the top two, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the cryptocurrency trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.

DeepSeek's financing negotiations with Alibaba have broken down. DeepSeek launched a massive financing round, attracting major companies like Tencent and Alibaba to participate, but the two sides ultimately failed to reach an agreement. The core conflict lies in Alibaba's desire to strengthen its AI ecosystem through investment, while DeepSeek, as an independent model company, insists on minimizing binding terms and maintaining technological independence, unwilling to accept excessive ecosystem ties.DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng has long rejected external equity financing. Although this time he has opened the door for the first time, his bottom line remains unchanged, with the most emphasis on offers with "the least additional conditions." DeepSeek's current financing round is valued at approximately 300 billion RMB (about 45 billion USD), with the fundraising focus on supplementing computing power and R&D funds, while also providing a market valuation anchor for employees to retain talent. Tencent had proposed to subscribe for up to 20% of the shares, but this was politely declined by DeepSeek as they did not want to relinquish a large proportion of control. Ultimately, the China National Investment Fund and others may lead the investment, with relatively loose terms that align more closely with DeepSeek's technological idealism.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the event "2026 FIFA World Cup Champion" is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching $914 million. The option with the highest market consensus is "France," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 16.85%.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 94.9% (down from 96.9% before the announcement), and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 5.1% (up from 3.1% before the announcement). By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.8% (down from 90.7% before the announcement), the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 10.8% (up from 9.1% before the announcement), and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.4% (up from 0.2% before the announcement).

According to Jinshi, U.S. interest rate futures indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2026 has slightly decreased.