Anthropic withstands the plunge and pushes forward with the IPO: roadshow may start as early as Tuesday, valuation could be cut by another 20%

Despite the recent severe sell-off in the AI sector, Anthropic has decided to withstand market pressure and push forward with its IPO. This large-scale listing will directly test the public market's risk appetite and pricing willingness for cutting-edge AI assets.

According to the latest report from The Wall Street Journal, investors expected Anthropic's valuation target to be around $1.5 trillion a week ago, but after the sharp decline in AI company stocks, some major investors now hope for a lower target valuation. Currently, the company's executives have been meeting with bankers from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to discuss the final determination of the valuation range.

Bloomberg reported on the 6th, citing an informed source, that some potential investors have discussed valuations dropping to around $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some even considering as low as $1.1 trillion.

The report states that Anthropic has arranged meetings with key investors this week, aiming to have its stock begin trading next Thursday or Friday. The company may still delay its valuation target and wait for more favorable market conditions, but this could trigger market panic.

The progress and final pricing of this IPO not only concern Anthropic's own financing scale but will also become a barometer for the valuation of the entire AI industry chain, directly affecting the market's reassessment of the high capital expenditures for AI infrastructure and its commercialization prospects.

Sprinting to Go Public Before Thanksgiving, Valuation Expectations Face Downward Adjustment

The timeline for Anthropic's IPO has entered a critical phase.

According to Bloomberg, under relevant regulations, after publicly submitting the prospectus on October 26, Anthropic could officially begin IPO marketing as early as November 10. If all goes well, the company is expected to complete pricing in the week of November 16, aiming to land on NASDAQ before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on November 26, with the stock ticker "ANT."

However, the market's extreme volatility has made valuation the core of the negotiations. Months ago, the market discussed a valuation figure of about $2 trillion, but Anthropic now almost certainly needs to accept a much lower valuation. Bloomberg reported on the 6th, citing an informed source, that some potential investors have discussed valuations dropping to around $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some even considering as low as $1.1 trillion.

For investment banks, pricing strategy is crucial. If the target is set too high, investor demand may be harmed, leading to a drop in stock prices; if the range is too low, the company and bankers will face criticism for "leaving money on the table." In practice, bankers sometimes encourage companies to propose a slightly lower-than-expected price range so that they can later raise the price citing strong investor demand. The documents expected to be submitted this week will detail the number of shares planned for sale and their prices, and may disclose well-known investors who have locked in purchases at the IPO price.

Political and Market Dual Resistance, AI Concepts Face Revaluation

The challenges facing Anthropic's IPO are not only due to differences in investors' views on its own valuation but are also influenced by changes in risk appetite across the entire AI industry chain. After the U.S. midterm elections, a group of skeptics towards AI came to power and introduced a potential moratorium that could slow the development of U.S. data centers, causing the NASDAQ Composite Index components to lose $2.5 trillion in market value in a single day.

Market volatility has pushed the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index (VIX) above 25 to over 28. Renaissance Capital's senior strategist Matt Kennedy stated that when the VIX is above 25, companies typically consider delaying their IPOs. Additionally, concerns are growing among investors about the lack of clarity regarding massive AI investments and their potential returns, as Anthropic's competitor OpenAI raised less than half of its initial target in its latest funding round, with a valuation below the target of $1.25 trillion.

However, the market has since shown some degree of recovery. The rebound of the S&P 500 Index and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, along with the decline of the VIX, may provide additional confidence for Anthropic to continue pushing for its listing. Matt Kennedy believes that Anthropic's IPO is different from a typical company's listing; the current market environment may not be sufficient to force it to delay its listing, but investors may have higher demands for discounts and valuations.

High Growth Performance Faces Slowdown, Investors Focus on Computing Costs

Another core of the valuation dispute is whether Anthropic can prove that its revenue growth is sufficient to support a massive IPO valuation. The prospectus shows that Anthropic's revenue reached $16.956 billion in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 1127%. However, signs of a slowdown in growth have emerged, with the quarter-on-quarter growth rate dropping to 47%, far below the second quarter's 144% quarter-on-quarter growth rate.

Profit performance is also under pressure. In the third quarter, Anthropic reported an operating loss of $567 million and a net loss of $23.291 billion. The shift to a loss was primarily impacted by approximately $5 billion in short-term computing procurement costs and about $2 billion in non-cash expenses related to employee donation matching programs. More concerning for the market is that the total amount disclosed for computing power procurement and infrastructure commitment expenditures reached as high as $895.4 billion.

According to Reuters, investors are currently waiting for Anthropic's October revenue data, hoping to gauge whether the company can reverse the recent trend of slowing growth. Revenue performance, enterprise customer usage, and the ability to control computing costs will be key indicators that investors focus on during the roadshow.

Financing Scale May Set Records, Industry Benchmark Significance Highlighted

As one of the first companies focused on developing cutting-edge AI models and attempting to enter the public market, the scale and pricing of Anthropic's issuance will provide important references for the entire AI industry.

The market is closely watching whether Anthropic's IPO can rival the record performance of Elon Musk's SpaceX. SpaceX's previous issuance was valued at about $1.77 trillion, raising between $75 billion and $86.2 billion. According to Reuters, Anthropic's issuance scale may even reach $100 billion.

Led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with another 20 banks participating in this oversized IPO, the actual subscription situation will provide a clear signal: after experiencing a significant adjustment in AI concept stocks, how much of a premium the public market is willing to pay for the long-term growth potential of cutting-edge AI companies.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own risk.