Trader: BTC may rise before the midterm elections in the United States

Crypto trader Killa posted that the most ideal trend for Bitcoin (BTC) currently is to continue rising before the U.S. midterm elections, building a bullish narrative and breaking through previous highs, followed by a pullback after the elections similar to historical cycles. However, this pullback may not form a new cycle low but rather establish higher lows.

Killa stated that if BTC experiences a decline before the midterm elections, he believes the market is more likely to rebound to around $95,000 after the elections. Previously, nearly $2 billion in long positions had been liquidated, and there are about 3 weeks left until the U.S. midterm elections. The market may currently be experiencing a "maximum pain" scenario: after some market narratives have been broken, BTC rebounds before the elections, then reverses again putting pressure on traders in the opposite direction, ultimately leading the market to re-engage in risk deleveraging.

Killa pointed out that in the past 4 U.S. midterm elections, there were declines in 3 of them 1-2 months after the elections, with historical samples showing a probability of about 75%. However, he mentioned that he still holds a 10x long position in BTC, as well as long positions established earlier at $62,600 and $76,400, and has not reduced his positions.