Fidelity Research Vice President: The bear market may not be over yet, BTC still awaits the test of the November cycle

Fidelity Digital Assets Vice President Chris Kuiper stated, "The bear market may not be over." He believes that the rebound since August could either be the starting point of a new rally or just a bounce within the bear market, "an upward price movement does not guarantee the end of the bear market"; according to a four-year cycle, November is a key window to observe (the last bear market bottom was in November 2022), but he also emphasized that historical cycles have never precisely repeated, and BTC may decline again, potentially setting a new low in November or later.

A more positive signal is that during the period from June to mid-August, the volatility of digital assets rapidly increased after being low, resembling the end of previous bear markets, which may indicate that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, while stablecoin transfers, RWA, and institutional participation continue to grow during the same period.