Grayscale: The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has surpassed 50%, currency depreciation trading may be returning

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that over the past year, during the rise of risk assets driven by AI, Bitcoin's trading performance has been more aligned with high-beta assets, but this situation may be reversing. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen from slightly above 0 at the beginning of the year to over 50%. Grayscale believes this change may indicate that investors are refocusing on Bitcoin's scarcity, monetary independence, and store of value function.

Meanwhile, the U.S. federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, and the ongoing fiscal deficit along with rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields has led the market to once again pay attention to assets that can hedge against the deterioration of fiscal and monetary fundamentals. Pandl pointed out that Bitcoin has no central issuer, its issuance rules are transparent, and its maximum supply is fixed at 21 million coins. In an environment where the long-term purchasing power of fiat currency is being reassessed, Bitcoin can serve as a scarce and more liquid alternative asset beyond gold. Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets may be entering a more favorable market phase.