Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Iran's attack on U.S. military base causes oil prices to rebound; storage chips continue to plummet; Apple, Microsoft, and Google steadily rise (July 29, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Significant market divergence before the decision, interest rate hike expectations rise

• Open interest in federal funds futures surged to a historic high (reaching 967,000 contracts on Monday), reflecting a huge divergence among traders regarding the policy path.
• CME data shows a 69.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, and a 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike; the cumulative probability of hikes by September is even higher.
• A Reuters survey indicates that analysts have lowered their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, with the median expectation for 2026 dropping to $4,509 per ounce. Market impact: Policy uncertainty boosts the dollar and volatility, suppressing risk assets while reinforcing pricing for inflation stickiness and geopolitical risks.

International Commodities

Iran attacks US military base, oil prices rebound significantly

• Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan, all of which were intercepted. This marks Iran's first missile attack on a regional US military base since the US paused strikes last Friday.
• The US Central Command confirmed the attack occurred at 5:45 PM Eastern Time on July 28, with US forces remaining on high alert.
• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister proposed negotiations with Oman for a temporary shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz, insisting that the maritime route be fully controlled by Iran, or else threatening to keep it closed and restart the war. Market impact: The informal ceasefire has collapsed, raising geopolitical risk premiums, with WTI crude rebounding over 3%, short-term supply concerns reigniting, and intensifying the inflation and policy expectation tug-of-war.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,015 per ounce, -0.35%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $57.2 per ounce, +0.11%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $82.6 per barrel, +3.12%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $81.2 per barrel, +4.31%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.39, -0.02%

Driving Factors Analysis: The Iranian attack broke previous ceasefire expectations, quickly raising oil risk premiums, with WTI rebounding over 3%. Gold and silver faced pressure against the backdrop of rising oil prices and increasing divergence ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with analysts lowering mid-term gold price forecasts for the first time, further suppressing precious metals. The relatively strong dollar reflects policy uncertainty. The asset linkage logic is clear: geopolitical escalation → rising oil prices → increasing inflation concerns → higher probability of Fed hawkishness, with short-term commodity volatility highly dependent on the progress of Hormuz negotiations and FOMC results.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: $63,962 (+0.93%)
• ETH: $1,917 (+2.31%)
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.28 trillion (+0.4%)
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h approximately $372 million, with long positions liquidated around $280 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price (63,900) has relatively low liquidation pressure, but a large number of 50x and 100x short liquidation orders are clustered in the $64,200--$65,000 range. Once this area is breached, it could trigger a chain reaction of short stop-losses, pushing prices further up. The cumulative short liquidation scale above is about $280 million, significantly higher than the approximately $230 million in long positions below, indicating that short-term market liquidation pressure still leans towards shorts, with potential volatility space for price upward breakouts slightly larger than for downward corrections.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $11.6 million on July 27, with a dynamic net inflow of $5.1 million today.

Driving Factors Analysis: Geopolitical escalation and rising risk aversion ahead of the Fed's decision have led to widespread pressure on risk assets. Both BTC and ETH retreated, with large-scale liquidation of long positions indicating that leveraged longs were being cleared. The weak flow of ETF funds further exacerbated selling pressure. The overall trend is weak, but the rebound in oil prices and FOMC results will become key short-term variables, with ETH relatively weaker reflecting the vulnerability of high-beta assets in a declining risk appetite.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 52,747.32 points (+1.03%), benefiting from strong earnings reports outside of technology.
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,428.78 points (+0.21%), narrowly higher.
• Nasdaq: Closed at 24,876.91 points (-0.22%), significantly dragged down by semiconductors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $197.01 (+0.25%)
• AAPL: $340.08 (+0.94%)
• MSFT: $393.35 (+1.09%)
• GOOGL: $332.60 (+1.85%)
• AMZN: $230.86 (-0.23%)
• META: $593.41 (-0.08%)
• TSLA: $307.44 (-0.58%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The technology sector has seen increased internal differentiation. Apple, Microsoft, and Google have all risen steadily, with Apple’s market value previously surpassing Nvidia; meanwhile, Micron and AMD have plunged over 8%, and Intel has dropped nearly 6%, dragging down the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Some AI application software has strengthened (Workday rose over 8%), but Palantir has retreated. Overall, the pattern reflects a "non-tech and software relatively resilient, hardware and storage continuously under pressure" scenario, indicating that the market's repricing of AI capital expenditure returns is still ongoing.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept Plummets Across the Board

• Representative stocks: SanDisk fell over 14%, Micron and SK Hynix-related stocks fell nearly 9%, Seagate fell over 8%.
• Driving factors: Cooling expectations for AI storage demand, compounded by overall chip sell-off.

Optical Communication Weakens Collectively

• Representative stocks: Corning fell over 12%, Coherent fell over 10%, Lumentum fell over 8%.
• Driving factors: Following concerns over capital expenditure and sentiment in technology hardware.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Falls 4.49%

• Representative stocks: AMD and Micron fell over 8%, Applied Materials and Marvell fell nearly 8%.
• Driving factors: Ongoing concerns about valuation and returns in the AI hardware supply chain.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Seagate Technology (STX) - Earnings significantly exceed expectations, few highlights in storage hardware

Event Overview: Fourth-quarter revenue of $3.65 billion (up 48% year-on-year), adjusted EPS of $5.71, and an operating profit margin of 44.6%, with all three core metrics significantly above market expectations. The company also raised its first-quarter revenue guidance to $4.0-4.2 billion (market expectation around $3.79 billion). After the earnings report was released, the stock price surged over 9% in after-hours trading. Market Interpretation: Against the backdrop of overall storage and semiconductor sectors being pressured by ongoing concerns about AI capital expenditure returns, Seagate, as a provider of enterprise-grade hard drives and storage solutions, demonstrated strong actual demand fulfillment capability. Its earnings exceeding expectations indicate that some traditional and enterprise storage demand remains resilient and has not been completely consumed by AI expectation correction sentiment. This sharply contrasts with the significant pullback of storage stocks like SanDisk and Micron, highlighting the differentiation between "performance deliverers" and "expectation traders" within the sector. Investment Insight: Clear short-term earnings support, but continuous tracking of subsequent order visibility and major customer capital expenditure trends is needed to verify whether demand is sustainable.

2. Micron Technology (MU) - Plummets nearly 9%, storage sector sentiment continues to deteriorate

Event Overview: Stock price fell nearly 9%, dragging down the storage and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX fell 4.49%) alongside SanDisk (fell over 14%) and AMD. Market Interpretation: The market has deeper doubts about the sustainability of the price increase cycle for HBM and conventional storage. Previously, expectations for AI server demand had driven storage stocks significantly higher, but recently, funds have clearly withdrawn from overvalued storage targets, reflecting investors' repricing of the narrative of "AI-driven linear demand growth." As an industry bellwether, Micron's decline amplified the overall pessimism in the sector, contrasting sharply with Seagate's earnings exceeding expectations. Investment Insight: Short-term sentiment is clearly dominant; it is recommended to closely monitor major customer capital expenditure guidance, inventory levels, and price trends to avoid merely betting on long-term AI demand.

3. Apple (AAPL) - Steady rise, market value advantage further solidified

Event Overview: Stock price rose approximately 0.94% to $340.08, with its market value previously surpassing Nvidia to reclaim the top spot globally, reaching a new interim high. Market Interpretation: In an environment where hardware and semiconductor sectors are generally under pressure, Apple has demonstrated significant certainty premium. Investors prefer its robust cash flow, continuous growth in service business, and relatively cautious AI capital expenditure strategy (favoring leasing computing power rather than large-scale self-construction). This "certainty-first" preference has made Apple a safe haven for funds in a volatile market, reinforcing the market's repricing of "high-quality growth." Investment Insight: Certainty assets are favored in the current environment. This week's earnings report will further test the growth quality of devices and services, as well as the commercialization progress of AI-related investments.

4. Nvidia (NVDA) - Slight rebound of 0.25%, AI hardware sentiment remains unhealed

Event Overview: Stock price slightly rose 0.25% to $197.01, having previously seen a significant pullback due to concerns over AI infrastructure costs and competitive pressures. Market Interpretation: The market is still digesting multiple concerns regarding the return cycle of large-scale capital expenditures, financing structures (including potential large support arrangements related to OpenAI), and intensified competition from China. Although there was a slight rebound, the momentum is limited, indicating that confidence in the narrative of "long-term prosperity of AI infrastructure" has not yet recovered. This contrasts with the solidification of Apple's market value advantage, further highlighting the differentiation between hardware and certainty assets. Investment Insight: The long-term logic of AI computing power demand remains unchanged, but short-term valuations and expenditure rhythms have entered a stricter scrutiny phase, with volatility likely to remain above market averages.

5. Corning (GLW) - Plummets over 12%, optical communication chain under significant pressure

Event Overview: Stock price fell over 12%, with the optical communication sector collectively weakening (Coherent fell over 10%, Lumentum fell over 8%). Market Interpretation: As an important supplier of optical communication and advanced materials, Corning is directly impacted by the cooling expectations for AI data center capital expenditures. Demand for optical modules and high-speed interconnects is highly dependent on the investment rhythm of cloud vendors and hyperscale customers, and when the market has doubts about the returns of AI infrastructure, upstream materials and equipment segments often reflect changes in sentiment first. Its decline resonates with the storage and chip sectors, reinforcing signals that the hardware chain as a whole is entering a phase of expectation correction. Investment Insight: The sector is highly correlated with AI infrastructure and is sensitive to short-term sentiment. It is essential to closely track the visibility of subsequent capital expenditure guidance from cloud vendors and equipment manufacturers.

6. SK Hynix (SKHY ADR) - Operating profit soars 557% but falls short of expectations, ADR under pressure

Event Overview: In the second quarter, operating profit surged 557% year-on-year to 60.5 trillion won (approximately $41.6 billion), setting a record; revenue was 79 trillion won. However, both core figures fell short of market expectations (operating profit expectation around 64 trillion won, revenue expectation around 83.85 trillion won). The company stated that due to a higher proportion of HBM, it did not fully benefit from the strong price increase cycle of conventional storage chips and plans to significantly expand HBM4 capacity in the second half of 2026. Market Interpretation: Despite record absolute profits, the "short of expectations" itself has triggered market concerns that the AI storage boom may be slowing down. A higher HBM structure has instead become a short-term drag, indicating that investors are more focused on marginal changes and expectation differences rather than absolute growth. This result has intensified the overall cautious sentiment in the storage sector and contrasts with Seagate's performance exceeding expectations, showing that differentiation has already emerged within the AI storage chain. Investment Insight: Long-term demand for HBM and advanced storage remains supported, but short-term observation of capacity expansion rhythms and customer demand matching is necessary. The combination of "high growth but miss" in performance may continue to suppress the speed of valuation recovery.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. The total locked value (TVL) of Ethereum Layer 2 networks has fallen back to approximately $5 billion, the lowest level since 2023, nearly erasing the growth brought by the launch of L2s like Optimism, Arbitrum, and ZKsync in 2024. Optimistic Rollups such as Optimism, Base, and Arbitrum still dominate the TVL, totaling about $4.8 billion, accounting for 96% of the total.

2. Analysts state that if the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, it may benefit Bitcoin. There is significant divergence in the market regarding whether the Fed will raise interest rates on Wednesday—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of maintaining rates, and a 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's reduced use of forward guidance has led to increased market uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.

3. SK Hynix announced plans to significantly expand HBM4 capacity supply in the second half of 2026. It has signed long-term chip supply agreements (LTA) with 10 major industry customers; it expects DRAM shipments in Q3 2026 to increase approximately 10% quarter-on-quarter from Q2; NAND flash shipments in Q3 2026 are expected to slightly rise quarter-on-quarter from Q2, with an increase in the low single digits (1%-4%); the long-term supply agreements set differentiated pricing mechanisms based on customer types and chip product characteristics to smooth out the cyclical volatility of storage prices; these agreements will significantly enhance the visibility of medium to long-term orders and demand.

4. According to reports from Jinshi, US officials stated that Iran launched ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan, which were intercepted by Jordan. Notably, this attack is the first missile strike by Iran on a US base in the region since the US paused attacks on Iran last Friday. The US Central Command later confirmed that multiple ballistic missiles were launched by Iran at 5:45 PM Eastern Time today, attempting to attack US forces stationed in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. The US Central Command stated that US forces remain vigilant and on high alert. Following this news, WTI crude oil continued to rise sharply on Wednesday morning, with intraday gains expanding to 4%.

5. Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure company Ionic Digital surged over 25% on its first day of direct listing on Nasdaq, with the stock price nearing $63, implying a valuation of approximately $2.75 billion. The company was established in January 2024 and acquired most of the mining assets in the bankruptcy restructuring of Celsius Network, including mining machines, infrastructure, approximately $195 million in cash, and 540 BTC.

6. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) reported earnings on Wednesday, with operating profit soaring 557% due to increased investments by tech giants in AI data centers, driving strong demand for advanced storage chips, reaching 60.5 trillion won (approximately $41.62 billion), a record high, compared to 9.2 trillion won in the same period last year. However, this figure fell short of the market expectation of 64 trillion won, mainly because its high-end storage chips (HBM) have a higher proportion than competitors, failing to fully benefit from the strong price increase cycle of conventional storage chips. This has intensified concerns that the AI boom driving the semiconductor industry may be slowing down. SK Hynix's revenue also did not meet expectations, with the second-quarter revenue reported at 79 trillion won, while the market expectation was 84 trillion won. Following the earnings report, SK Hynix's stock fell 9% on Tuesday in US markets and dropped another 9% in after-hours trading, with SanDisk (SNDK.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) also falling over 4%, erasing the boost from Seagate Technology's (STX.O) earnings report.

7. According to Cointelegraph, US tech stocks were pressured by the plunge in Asian chip stocks, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $63,000, breaking a key support level and hitting a near 10-day low after the US market opened on Tuesday. Market data shows that Bitcoin's price movements were influenced by the global tech stock sell-off, with the sharp decline in the Asian semiconductor sector triggering a chain reaction in risk assets, spreading to the US market.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|------|----|---------------|-------| | This Wednesday | US | Federal Reserve FOMC Rate Decision | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | After Hours | US | Earnings Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, etc. | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

July 29 (Wednesday)

1. ★★★★★ Microsoft and Meta to release earnings after hours (market focus on AI capital expenditure returns, cloud business growth, and advertising recovery)
2. ★★★★ Qualcomm, Arm, Robinhood to release earnings after hours July 30 (Thursday)
3. ★★★★★ Federal Reserve to announce rate decision, market expects no change, followed by a press conference with Chair Warsh; focus on statements regarding future rate paths and whether to restart rate hikes in September; current inflation pressures coexist with tariff uncertainties
4. ★★★★★ US to release June Core PCE Price Index, preliminary annualized quarterly GDP for Q2, and weekly initial jobless claims
5. ★★★★★ Apple and Amazon to release earnings, testing the effectiveness of AI commercialization
6. ★★★★ Samsung Electronics to release complete Q2 earnings report (storage and AI chips)
7. ★★★ Coinbase and Strategy to release earnings after hours July 31 (Friday)
8. ★★★★ Kioxia to release earnings (closing out the three major Japanese and Korean storage companies)
9. US to release July Chicago PMI and final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan

Institutional Views:

Analysts generally believe that the Iranian attack has broken ceasefire expectations, quickly driving up oil prices and intensifying inflation concerns, making the Federal Reserve's policy path this week more uncertain. Record holdings in federal funds futures show significant market divergence. Technology hardware and storage continue to be under pressure, reflecting a deepening repricing of AI capital expenditure returns; meanwhile, some non-tech and software earnings reports provide support. The cryptocurrency market has retreated amid declining risk appetite, with concentrated long position liquidations. The overall consensus is that dual uncertainties from geopolitics and policy will dominate short-term volatility, with FOMC results and tech giants' earnings becoming key pricing anchors.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and is not intended as any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.