OneBullEx participates in the collaboration of the "ForeGate 2026 World Cup Winning Guide," as the World Cup celebration season enters the reward calculation phase

According to official news, ForeGate, in collaboration with football legend Michael Owen and OneBullEx, OKX, and WEEX, has released the “ForeGate 2026 World Cup Winning Guide” in-game research report.

With all 72 group matches concluded, the 2026 World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico officially enters the knockout stage with 32 teams. During the World Cup, OneBullEx, driven by AI technology and focused on digital asset contract trading, collaborates with the Solana-based prediction market ForeGate to develop content and brand partnerships around the “ForeGate 2026 World Cup Winning Guide.”

The report continuously tracks the advancement probabilities, potential matchups, and championship paths of the participating teams, updating relevant data based on the results of the matches. During the World Cup, both parties also launched independent themed activities. OneBullEx's World Cup Carnival Season has mechanisms for team support, national teams, and advancement rewards, with related rewards calculated in phases based on the results of the knockout matches. ForeGate simultaneously launched a 2026 World Cup prediction challenge with a million-dollar prize pool.

OneBullEx National Teams and Reward Mechanisms for the World Cup Carnival Season

The OneBullEx World Cup Carnival Season starts with team selection as the entry point for participation. Each account can only support one team, and once confirmed, it cannot be changed. Users who meet the activity conditions will join the corresponding national team.

During the group stage, users will monitor the points, goal difference, and qualification situation of the team they support. Once in the knockout stage, the focus shifts to advancement results, next-round opponents, and reward progress. The advancement or elimination of the team will directly affect the advancement rewards of the corresponding national team.

The activity has set up a contract experience prize pool totaling 150,000 USDT, which will be distributed based on the final stage reached by each team in the tournament. Eligible supporters will participate in the calculation of the corresponding team prize pool according to the activity rules and valid data.

In addition to advancement rewards, users supporting the same team will also participate in leaderboard rankings as a national team unit. The leaderboard is based on the cumulative valid subscription amount of Spartan robots and valid contract trading volume during the activity period, with final rankings and rewards subject to OneBullEx's review results.

The relevant prize pool adopts a phased unlocking mechanism. When the cumulative valid subscription amount or valid trading volume generated by eligible users reaches the corresponding threshold, the prize pool will be gradually opened at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%.

The team's performance determines whether the advancement rewards are triggered, and the cumulative data from the activity affects the prize pool unlocking ratio. Individual and team data are used for the final reward calculation.

Team selection and task phases ended on June 28. Relevant rewards will be calculated and distributed uniformly based on the results of the knockout matches and activity rules after data verification is completed.

ForeGate Generates Advancement and Championship Probabilities Through Data Models

ForeGate is an on-chain prediction market built on Solana, covering football, esports, and other event-based markets with clear outcomes. Relevant markets will settle based on public information after the results are confirmed. During the World Cup, ForeGate launched the 2026 World Cup prediction challenge and showcased dynamic data such as team Elo ratings, qualification probabilities, knockout paths, and championship probabilities through the “Winning Guide.”

The report combines ForeGate's AI prediction model with OKX's data path simulation, integrating basic Elo strength ratings, expected goals, historical goal probability distributions, and team lineups to model and analyze the participating teams.

The model generates win, draw, and loss probabilities and score distributions based on the basic strength ratings and processes complex paths such as best third-place advancement, cross-elimination, and potential matchups through 100,000 simulation tests. The simulation frequency of each team entering different tournament stages is an important basis for calculating advancement and championship probabilities.

The model uses world football Elo ratings, FIFA's official participating lineups and group draw information, as well as historical international match data. ForeGate emphasizes the interpretability of data sources, calculation paths, and probability results in the prediction process. Users can also query relevant team probabilities and model data through mainstream AI assistants.

ForeGate also provides a prediction query tool, allowing users to check team probabilities and model data through mainstream AI assistants. According to the updated data as of June 28, when the group stage concluded, Spain ranked first with a 33.10% in-game championship probability, followed closely by Argentina at 26.60%. France and England have championship probabilities of 12.05% and 7.90%, respectively. The four teams collectively account for nearly 80% of the championship probability, forming the current model's top group.

The report shows that a team's championship probability not only depends on basic strength but is also influenced by knockout stage divisions and potential matchups. Brazil currently has a championship probability of 4.80%, while Germany has 2.65%. Although both teams remain at the top of the model rankings, the more complex knockout paths have had some impact on their subsequent advancement probabilities.

The knockout stage uses a single-elimination mechanism, where the result of one match can change the advancement structure of the entire half. As teams continue to advance or be eliminated, the championship probabilities in the model will also be continuously redistributed.

Data Models and Event Experience Complement Each Other

In addition to model calculations, the “Winning Guide” also incorporates Michael Owen's observations of the knockout matches.

ForeGate's model is primarily used to present the basic strength of teams, advancement paths, and probability changes. Owen provides supplementary analysis of key teams and potential matchups from perspectives such as attacking form, match rhythm, on-field execution, and tournament experience.

Data models can identify long-term trends and potential paths. The experience of professional players plays a role on another level, helping to understand rhythm changes and key moments in specific matches.

The knockout stage section of the “Winning Guide” will update model data in real-time and include Owen's round-by-round analysis of key matches.

ForeGate Model Accuracy Data Applicability

ForeGate reveals that its World Cup model currently has an overall prediction accuracy of 93.8%. This data primarily reflects the model's performance in the current prediction records of this World Cup.

ForeGate also discloses that the model's win, draw, and loss accuracy in approximately 8,000 international match backtests is 57%—58%. Long-term backtests cover different years, teams, and match environments, and there are differences in sample range and statistical criteria compared to the current World Cup phase data; both sets of data need to be understood in their respective applicable contexts.

In addition to accuracy, ForeGate also discloses an expected calibration error of approximately 1.6% over the long-term backtest period. Accuracy measures whether the prediction results are correct. Expected calibration error focuses on another dimension: whether the actual win rate of the matches predicted to have a 70% win rate is also close to 70%.

Relevant data still needs to be understood in conjunction with sample divisions and performance across different probability intervals.

Model predictions can also be affected by real-world factors. Team lineups, current form, injuries, suspensions, weather, tactical adjustments, and referee decisions can all change actual match outcomes.

Once in the knockout stage, extra time, penalty shootouts, and potential matchup changes will also increase prediction difficulty. ForeGate states that the “Winning Guide” will continuously update advancement probabilities, potential matchups, and championship paths based on the latest match results, team injuries, suspension risks, and new model simulation results.

OneBullEx World Cup Activities Enter Reward Calculation Phase

With the start of the 32-team knockout stage, the team selection and task statistics for OneBullEx's World Cup Carnival Season have concluded, and the activity has entered the data verification and reward calculation phase.

The 32-team knockout stage will last until July 3, at which point the participating teams will be reduced from 32 to 16. The advancement results of the teams supported by each national team will directly affect the triggering and subsequent calculation of corresponding advancement rewards.

Relevant rewards will be calculated and distributed uniformly based on the results of the knockout matches and activity rules after data verification is completed.

Risk Warning

The event probabilities from ForeGate, the “Winning Guide,” and model content are for event research and observation purposes only and do not constitute guarantees of match results, betting advice, or profit commitments. Actual match outcomes may be influenced by injuries, red cards, weather, lineups, and on-field tactics. Users should understand the applicable regulations and platform risks in their location before participating in relevant markets.

The team selection, tasks, and prize pool distribution in the OneBullEx World Cup activities are part of the activity mechanism and do not constitute investment advice or profit commitments. Activity rewards are distributed in the form of OneBullEx contract experience funds, with specific calculations and usage rules subject to the platform's final explanation. Digital asset contract trading carries high risks, and users should participate cautiously after fully understanding the relevant rules.

About ForeGate

ForeGate is a leading next-generation decentralized prediction market and strategy trading platform, centered around popular global sports events, transforming event content into participatory trading markets. The platform deeply integrates advanced AI computing engines with Web3 underlying architecture, aiming to upgrade traditional event speculation into a rational decision-making ecosystem based on collective intelligence and high-precision algorithms.

As an innovative leader in global sports data analysis and derivative trading, ForeGate has created a high-concurrency central limit order book and automated market maker dual-driven architecture, providing deep liquidity and an absolutely transparent clearing and settlement mechanism for diverse prediction scenarios such as sports events, financial trends, and macro politics. By aggregating insights from top analysts and sports stars and relying on a continuously evolving supercomputing database, ForeGate is breaking down data silos and giving every participant a "God's eye view" to see future probabilities.

About OneBullEx

OneBullEx is a next-generation cryptocurrency trading platform driven by AI technology, focused on digital asset contract trading. As The AI Futures Exchange, OneBullEx's brand proposition is "Smart Trading, Simplifying Complexity," focusing on combining AI automation capabilities, transparent execution mechanisms, and contract trading infrastructure to lower the barriers for users to understand and use systematic trading tools.

The platform's core products include 300 Spartan trading robots, OneBullEx Card, etc., covering AI strategy automation and digital asset payment scenarios, and continuously improving the user ecosystem through OBE points, membership rights, community activities, and global collaborations. OneBullEx regards transparency, verifiability, and long-term trust as important principles in product development. The platform is supported by OneMore Group, dedicated to building a more stable and intelligent digital asset service environment for global users.