Bitget UEX Daily Report | Escalation of US-Iran conflict raises oil price risks; US May CPI, TSMC May revenue, Oracle earnings report coming up (June 10, 2026)

1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics Federal Reserve officials maintain a cautious wait-and-see stance

• The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. May CPI data to assess the inflation trajectory and interest rate cut prospects.
• Recent geopolitical tensions have not significantly altered the Federal Reserve's baseline assessment of the economy.
• Analysis: If the CPI data is moderate, it may strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts this year, but high oil prices and imported inflation risks could complicate decision-making, benefiting the dollar in the short term and suppressing risk assets.

International Commodities Renewed U.S.-Iran conflict poses risks of global oil supply disruptions

• Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. military targets in the region, prompting the U.S. to initiate a second round of self-defense strikes against air defense and radar systems.
• The U.S. Department of Energy warns that global oil inventories are rapidly declining to multi-year lows.
• Trump hinted at possible involvement in Iran's reconstruction but demanded a share of oil resources.
• Analysis: Geopolitical conflicts directly increase the risk premium for crude oil, combined with low inventories, supporting oil prices in the short term, but the long-term outlook depends on the escalation of the conflict and negotiation progress.

2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time updates)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,233 per ounce, down about 1.3% in 24 hours.
• Spot Silver: Approximately $65 per ounce, down about 1.15% in 24 hours.
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $90 per barrel, up 1.79% in 24 hours.
• Brent Crude Oil: $93.13 per barrel, up about 1.84%.
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 100.007 points, fluctuating slightly near flat in 24 hours.

Driving Factors Analysis: The escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict has raised market concerns about disruptions in Middle Eastern oil production capacity, while the U.S. Department of Energy's inventory warnings further amplify geopolitical premiums, driving oil prices higher. The dollar index remains relatively stable, reflecting investors seeking safe havens amid risk events without extreme movements. Gold and silver are suppressed by a strong dollar and fluctuations in risk appetite. In the short term, developments in the conflict, U.S. CPI data, and Federal Reserve expectations will dominate correlations: rising oil prices may transmit inflationary pressures, limiting easing space, while gold's performance as a traditional safe-haven asset depends on the dollar and real interest rate trends. Institutional consensus believes that geopolitical uncertainty will support the energy sector, but caution is warranted regarding pullbacks from easing negotiations.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $61,180, down about 1.34% in 24 hours.
• ETH: Approximately $1,640, down about 1.42% in 24 hours.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.21 trillion, down about 1% in 24 hours.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Approximately $424 million total liquidations in 24 hours, with $324 million in long liquidations.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is approximately $61,800, with recent large long liquidation zones concentrated around $60,500-$61,500, indicating that high-leverage long positions below have mostly cleared, releasing some short-term downward momentum, but market sentiment remains cautious. The upper zone of $63,500-$64,500 has accumulated short liquidation sizes exceeding $600 million, significantly higher than the long risk exposure below; if BTC stabilizes above $63,000 and breaks upward, it may trigger large-scale short covering (Short Squeeze), pushing prices rapidly towards the $64,000-$65,000 range.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $94.1 million yesterday.

Driving Factors Analysis: The geopolitical conflict and adjustments in the U.S. tech sector resonate, suppressing risk appetite. A SemiAnalysis report indicates that NVIDIA's 800VDC and CPO mass production delays directly impact AI infrastructure expectations, leading to corrections in related sectors and spillover into the cryptocurrency market. Leverage liquidations exacerbate volatility, with BTC/ETH under pressure but limited differentiation. ETF fund flows are becoming cautious, with macro signals of dollar stability and rising oil prices creating mixed signals. Technically, the market is oscillating near key support levels, with institutional views suggesting that short-term digestion of event shocks is needed, while mid-term focus should be on Federal Reserve policies and ETF dynamics. The overall trend is defensive, with attention to rebound potential under geopolitical easing or favorable data.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at approximately 50,872 points (up 0.17%), showing slight stabilization.
• S&P 500: Closed at approximately 7,387 points (down 0.26%), with significant sector differentiation.
• Nasdaq: Closed at approximately 25,679 points (down 0.97%), significantly dragged down by tech weights.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: Approximately $208.19, down 0.22%.
• AAPL: Approximately $290.55, down 3.64%.
• MSFT: Approximately $403 range, down 2.02%.
• GOOGL: Approximately $364.26, up 0.26%.
• AMZN: Approximately $244.19, down 0.42%.
• META: Approximately $584.59, down 0.14%.
• TSLA: Approximately $396.68, down 3.00%.

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The three major indices show differentiation, with the Dow Jones relatively resilient, while the Nasdaq is dragged down by tech corrections. Reports of delays in AI infrastructure mass production have severely impacted the "light" and "electric" sectors, while Apple's Siri AI debut did not meet expectations, exacerbating differentiation, although some defensive or non-AI tech stocks performed more steadily. Individual stock drivers show significant differences: NVDA and others are suppressed by supply chain concerns, while GOOGL benefits from Gemini progress, and Apple faces competitive pressure. Overall, sectors are under pressure from macro uncertainty and event shocks, with short-term valuation adjustments potentially providing opportunities, but caution is warranted regarding geopolitical spillover.

Cryptocurrency Market Stock Contract Trading Data

• 24H Total Trading Volume: $22.69 billion (+27.38%), with trading activity significantly rebounding.
• Total Open Interest (OI): $7.78 billion (+5.63%), with new funds continuously flowing into the market.
• 24H Total Liquidations: $55.22 million.
• Trading Volume Proportion: 11.61%.
• Open Interest Proportion: 7.60%.
• Liquidation Proportion: 12.97%.

Sector Positioning Rankings

• Technology Sector: $1.14 billion (Ranked first)
• Financial Sector: $147 million
• Consumer Sector: $66.65 million
• Biotechnology Sector: $20.09 million
• Industrial Sector: $17.24 million

Heatmap Fund Distribution (by Position)

Commodities (Most Concentrated Funds)

• Gold (GOLD): $3.31 billion (Largest held commodity in the market)
• Silver (SILVER): $747 million
• WTI Crude Oil: $592 million
• Brent Crude Oil (BRENT): $422 million

Tech Stocks

• NVIDIA (NVDA): $232 million
• Marvell Technology (MRVL): $191 million
• Google (GOOGL): $101 million
• Circle (CRCL): $97.6 million
• Intel (INTC): $94.65 million
• Tesla (TSLA): $79.8 million
• SanDisk (SNDK): Active positions

Sector Movement Observations

Semiconductor/Optical Communication Sector Shows Significant Decline

• Representative Stocks:
• AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics): Down about 17.17% (closed at approximately $162.88).
• COHR (Coherent Corp.): Down about 11.44% (closed at approximately $355.94).
• MRVL (Marvell Technology): Down about 7.61% (recently volatile).
• Other related stocks: Lumentum (LITE) and others in the same sector generally fell 5-10%+.
• Driving Factors: A SemiAnalysis report indicates that NVIDIA's next-generation architecture and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) mass production timelines have been further delayed to around 2028, affected by yield, ASIC integration, and packaging process bottlenecks (such as TSMC CoWoS). This report has undermined market expectations for short-term high growth in AI optical module supply chains, triggering profit-taking and sector-wide corrections. Optical stocks had previously surged due to AI data center demand (some stocks up over 400% YTD), and this adjustment is a typical event-driven correction, temporarily suppressing related supply chain valuations, but the medium to long-term narrative for AI infrastructure demand remains resilient.

Cruise/Airline Services Sector Performs Relatively Strong

• Representative Stocks:
• CCL (Carnival): Recently up in the range of 3-8% (specifics depend on trading days, influenced by oil prices and geopolitical dynamics).
• RCL (Royal Caribbean), NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Line), and other stocks in the same sector generally recorded positive returns or resilient performance.
• Airline-related service stocks (such as some benefiting from oil price fluctuations) also saw rotational increases.
• Driving Factors: Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflict (U.S.-Iran tensions), some defensive funds have rotated from high-valuation tech/semiconductor sectors to consumer services. Additionally, oil price fluctuations and expectations of potential easing (reducing fuel cost pressures) are favorable for cruise and airline operational cost control. The sector had previously been supported by strong demand and a rebound in bookings, becoming a beneficiary of risk rotation in the short term, highlighting market characteristics of style switching under uncertainty.

3. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Supermicro Computer (SMCI) - Equity Financing Supports AI Business Event Overview: Supermicro Computer announced a $7 billion equity and convertible bond financing plan to procure components to meet the growth in AI server orders, including a $5 billion underwriting issuance and a $2 billion ATM issuance. Market Interpretation: Institutions are concerned about the dilution impact of the financing but recognize its position in AI server demand. Investment Insight: Short-term stock price pressure, long-term depends on order execution and capital structure optimization.

2. Nuvalent (NUVL) - Acquired by GSK Event Overview: GlaxoSmithKline acquired Nuvalent for $10.6 billion in cash, at $124 per share, a 40% premium over the previous close, focusing on cancer-targeted therapies. Market Interpretation: The transaction is recognized by the market, highlighting the pharmaceutical giant's emphasis on innovative pipelines. Investment Insight: Similar transactions may boost biotechnology sector valuations, with attention to regulatory approval progress.

3. Samsung and SK Hynix - South Korea Investment Plans Event Overview: The two companies may soon announce expanded investments in South Korea, including packaging facilities or wafer fabs, with the South Korean president discussing regional plans with chaebols. Market Interpretation: Strengthening supply chain localization to address global geopolitical and trade risks. Investment Insight: Positive for the South Korean semiconductor ecosystem, investors may focus on related supply chain opportunities.

4. SpaceX - IPO and AI Computing Progress Event Overview: SpaceX's orbital AI computing testing has been advanced to 2027, with the IPO receiving multiple times oversubscription. Market Interpretation: Highlights long-term growth potential, attracting interest from large institutions. Investment Insight: The approaching IPO provides a focal point, but valuations need to match execution capabilities.

4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize, stated that tokenized stocks could drive the RWA market from the current approximately $30 billion to $5 trillion. He pointed out that the global stock and ETF market size is about $150 trillion, and even if only 2% to 3% goes on-chain, it could approach $5 trillion. Domingo believes that tokenized stocks, rather than private credit or government bond products, will be the key driver of this growth.

2. The U.S. House of Representatives fundraising committee held hearings on several cryptocurrency tax bills, with bipartisan lawmakers questioning the details of the drafts, and consensus has not yet been reached. The bills aim to address the tax reporting burden for cryptocurrency users, including tax exemptions for small transactions and eliminating double taxation on mining and staking income (taxed when received and when sold).

3. On-chain analysts disclosed on platform X that the so-called "private key leak" led to attackers continuously minting and selling H on the BSC chain, with a cumulative minting of about 300 million and total sales of about 450 million, cashing out approximately $34 million (ETH + BNB).

4. CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV stated that Bitcoin demand has entered one of the most extreme contraction states since 2019. The 30-day combined demand for spot and perpetual futures has dropped to about -650,000 BTC, a threshold that has only occurred three times historically. The simultaneous contraction of spot and futures demand indicates that weakness is not limited to leveraged speculation, with institutional buying and derivative exposure withdrawing simultaneously, leaving Bitcoin with fewer marginal buyers and weaker absorption capacity for selling pressure. Historically, the deep support zone of -650,000 BTC typically marks the beginning of a highly unstable market phase rather than an immediate bottom.

Analysts believe that the current pattern does not resemble a confirmed reversal but rather the beginning of a final cleansing phase. The most likely path is an initial expansion of volatility, followed by a price "anesthesia" period: weak momentum, compressed activity, and prolonged sideways movement. This phase may be psychologically more destructive than the sell-off itself.

5. Market Calendar

June 10 (Wednesday)

1. U.S. May CPI data release: The market is focused on the impact of inflation trends on Federal Reserve policy. ★★★★★
2. Major U.S. stock earnings: Oracle (ORCL) to be announced after hours (AI cloud business growth and guidance are key). ★★★★★
3. TSMC (TSM) May sales data release (focus on semiconductor supply chain).

June 11 (Thursday)

1. SpaceX IPO final pricing: One of the largest IPOs in history ($135/share, expected to raise about $75 billion, market cap nearly $1.77 trillion), a strong catalyst for space/tech stocks. ★★★★★ (Also, large investor activities)
2. U.S. May PPI data release: A key indicator of inflation pressure (expected to rise significantly).
3. U.S. stock earnings: Adobe (ADBE) and others to be announced after hours (focus on AI software demand).
4. The U.S., Canada, and Mexico World Cup kicks off (June 11 - July 19): U.S. stocks related to the sports industry may receive attention.

June 12 (Friday)

1. SpaceX officially lists on Nasdaq (code SPCX): A historic IPO event, first trading day, boosting market sentiment. ★★★★★
2. U.S. economic data: June Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value, June one-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value.

Core Highlights for U.S. Stocks This Week: "Super Event Week": SpaceX IPO + Apple WWDC + Major Inflation Data (CPI/PPI) + Oracle/Adobe Earnings, will dominate U.S. tech and macro sentiment. It is recommended to focus on AI, tech infrastructure, and space concept sectors.

Institutional Views: Well-known investment bank analysts emphasize cautious optimism in the current environment. Geopolitical conflicts are pushing energy prices higher, but the differentiation in U.S. stocks shows a defensive rotation of funds. Concerns over AI delays suppress tech valuations, and the cryptocurrency market is fluctuating under macro and leverage influences. Most institutions believe that once the CPI data clarifies, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path may regain clarity, supporting a rebound in risk assets. Energy and defensive sectors are favored in the short term, while tech stocks need to digest supply chain news. Overall, volatility is rising, but the medium to long-term growth narrative (AI, stablecoin innovation) remains resilient, suggesting attention to data-driven opportunities and risk management.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and is not intended as any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.