4E: Early giant whale cleared 11,000 BTC, institutions counter-trend raised ETF holdings to 40%

According to 4E observations, on Thursday, early on-chain whale Owen Gunden transferred the last 2,499 bitcoins (approximately $228 million) to Kraken, marking the completion of his cumulative sell-off of about 11,000 BTC (approximately $1.3 billion) since October 21. Gunden is an early arbitrage trader who was active on Tradehill and Mt.Gox, and he had previously ranked among the top ten on-chain billionaires. This round of liquidation lasted for more than a month, ultimately reducing his bitcoin holdings to zero.

This selling pressure occurred at a time when retail sentiment was extremely pessimistic. The CryptoQuant bull market index has dropped to 20/100, the most pessimistic range of this cycle; since November, there has been a net outflow of $2.8 billion from bitcoin ETFs, intensifying concerns about the end of the bull market.

However, contrary to retail panic, institutions are increasing their holdings against the trend. The latest 13-F disclosures show that the proportion of institutional holdings in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs has surged from 27% in Q2 2024 to 40%. Analyst Root pointed out that this figure is still a "conservative estimate," as only institutions with AUM exceeding $100 million are required to report. Despite recent outflows from ETFs, the increase in institutional holdings indicates that some long-term funds are choosing to hold firm or even add to their positions during the adjustment.

Currently, the BTC price is approximately $85,823. The market structure shows a typical divergence:
• Retail side → Panic selling, rising exit sentiment
• Institutional side → Increasing ETF allocation during the adjustment

4E Commentary: The concentrated selling pressure from early whales and the structural increase in institutional allocation together shape the current market's "emotional low point - capital turnover" phase. Short-term volatility may still amplify, but changes in capital flow and holding structure will have a more profound impact on the future market direction.