CFTC investigates Adam Kinzinger betting on his own pardon at Kalshi

According to Politico, citing three informed sources, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former Illinois Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger, related to his trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi. The relevant trades occurred between December 2024 and January 2025, completed through a Kalshi account associated with Kinzinger. He confirmed to the media that he had placed bets on contracts regarding whether he would receive a presidential pardon, while also betting on another contract about whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office.

In the final moments before Biden left office in January 2025, he issued preemptive pardons to Kinzinger and other members of the House Select Committee investigating the Capitol riot. Screenshots provided by Kinzinger show that he made a profit of $823 from approximately 25 trades, most of which were losses. He denied any wrongdoing, stating that he had been out of office for two years at the time of the bets, was neither a congressman nor a candidate, and had "no insider information." He also stated that he had read Kalshi's rules in advance and understood that they prohibit users from trading contracts directly related to their own interests. Kalshi prohibits users from betting on contracts in which they are direct participants, and the CFTC also prohibits the use of significant non-public information in its regulated markets.

Kalshi had previously handled similar cases, suspending three congressional candidates in April for betting on their own campaigns, and freezing former Congressman George Santos's account, which was referred to the CFTC and the Department of Justice, leading to a lifetime ban at the end of August.