Data: Polymarket predicts the probability of Anthropic's next generation Claude Opus release rising to 90%

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket "Anthropic's next generation Claude Opus will be released before September 27" has risen to 90%, up 13% in 24 hours; the probability of it being released before September 30 has risen to 94%, up 7% in 24 hours.

According to the settlement rules, if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made publicly available before the specified date (Eastern Time ET), the prediction market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Claude Opus refers specifically to the model explicitly named "Opus" by Anthropic; models released under other names, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, do not qualify. Additionally, qualifying models must have been officially launched and made publicly accessible, including open testing or public rolling waitlist registration. Closed testing or any form of private access does not qualify for settlement.