Rhodium: China's AI model total revenue is about 10% of the top in the United States

The American research institution Rhodium Group estimates that the total annual recurring revenue (ARR) of China's AI models is only about 10% of the revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic. DeepSeek's ARR is $500 million, MiniMax's is $800 million, Moonshot's is $1 billion, and Z.ai's latest ARR is $1.8 billion. Even with ByteDance's $4 billion and Alibaba's $2.4 billion added, it is still far below OpenAI's $40 billion and Anthropic's $65 billion.

The Rhodium report states that Moonshot and DeepSeek are currently overvalued relative to their revenue, with estimated ratios of 50 times and 163 times, respectively, higher than OpenAI's 34 times and Anthropic's 21 times. Z.ai has raised its full-year ARR expectation to $3 billion. Rhodium partner Logan Wright stated that the financing gap means that China's leading AI laboratories will find it harder to expand sustainably, and they will heavily rely on favorable conditions in the equity market. Over 60% of China's AI chip and server equity investments come from state-related sources.