Goldman Sachs: Cryptocurrency trading has fallen for ten consecutive months, and a turning point may be near

According to ChaoXiang Research, a Goldman Sachs report pointed out that cryptocurrency trading volume fell by 30% in July and 21% in August, marking a continuous decline for 10 months, lasting longer than the median of the previous five cycles. The trading volume has dropped by 75% from its peak, while the cryptocurrency market value rebounded by 21% in the past week. Goldman Sachs believes that if the market value maintains at the current level, a turning point in trading volume may appear.

On the regulatory front, 35% of institutional investors view regulatory uncertainty as the biggest obstacle, while 32% believe that regulatory clarity is the primary catalyst. The SEC recently proposed an innovation exemption, and over 10 new digital asset companies received OCC bank licenses in 2026, with more than 15 cryptocurrency firms included in the federal banking system. Cryptocurrency companies are expected to reduce costs by an average of about 5% in 2026, driving an increase in operating profit margins of about 5.8 percentage points.

Goldman Sachs holds a cautiously optimistic view for the second half of the year, with sector valuations at the 30th percentile over the past five years. They recommend COIN (target price $196), HOOD ($124), IBKR ($114, Goldman Sachs' U.S. conviction list), and FIGR ($43). The logic for the three types of assets is different: traditional brokerages look for a reversal in September, predicting the market based on the election cycle, while cryptocurrency targets have three catalysts: market value rebound, cost reduction, and regulatory reform.